Ahoy Roarers! The Championships conclude this Saturday at Randwick with another star-studded ten-race program, with four majors, including the race of the Carnival, the $4 Million Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m).
The race lost its star attraction Winx, but the field is still high class despite the champion mare not taking her place.
I’ll kick off the preview of the card with the first major, the Australian Oaks (2400m). I think the value in the race lies with 3 Honesta, who comes through the Vinery Stud (2000m) where she got back in the run and closed off strongly late when sixth to Single Gaze.
She’ll eat up the 2400m at Randwick and any give in the track will only be beneficial, and don’t forget he ran second to Jameka in the Crown Oaks (2500m) in the Spring.
2 Jameka is the favourite and the horse to beat. Her effort in the Derby (2400m) last Saturday was full of merit when second to Tavago after sitting on speed all the way. She was well beaten but she was coming again on the line.
Hard fit now and drops back to her own age and sex, plus she maps very well so it’s easy to see why she is the top pick in betting.
2 Single Gaze is another that looks tremendous overs in the race. She won the Vinery Stud (2000m) and really had the race won 250m out, so I am a bit miffed as to why she is not higher up in betting. She’ll do no work from the gate, she gives the impression she will run the trip out and is bred to swim, so a wet track will be no issue.
I am really looking forward to the Sydney Cup (3200m). Chris Waller should trifecta the race, but what will the order be? The winner will be the defending champion 3 Grand Marshal, who was outstanding last time out in the BMW (2400m) when a closing third to stablemates Preferment and Who Shot Thebarman. He will eat up the two miles here, loves give in the track and now gets the services of McDonald.
4 Libran is the one on the up. He toughed it out very strongly to win the Chairmans (2600m) last Saturday when lumping the topweight yet was lifted over the line by Avdulla. Tumbles in weight now and he really has had the Sydney Cup written all over him since his first up run. He will look the winner at some stage.
1 Who Shot Thebarman ran a narrow second to Grand Marshal in this race last year and looks to be going just as well in 2016. He tried hard in the BMW (2400m) and for a few strides, he looked like picking up Preferment, but that horse just kicked on too strongly. He will get the dream run off the speed here and he is another that won’t mind cut in the ground.
The Coolmore Legacy (1600m) look at the mercy of 3 Azkadellia. Her run in the Doncaster (1600m) last Saturday was outstanding given it was her first Test against the big boys and girls and it took a couple of stars in Winx and Happy Clapper to beat her. Spaced the rest, which is a good sign. Now back to her own sex, Ollie on and she just looks so well placed here.
I think you have to forgive 14 Badawiya for her fourth in the Emancipation (1500m) given she pulled a touch behind the speed and had to come back to the inside, which wasn’t the spot to be. I can’t get my mind off her dominant win in the Kewney the star prior where she just savaged the line. Gets the weight pull and though drawn horribly, I am going to respect her enormously.
In terms of value, 5 Noble Protector could be the improver. She dumped Craig Williams first up at Flemington before going to the Sunline at the Valley where she worked home strongly to run second to tearaway winner Miss Rose De Lago. Remember that Noble Protector started favourite in this race last year and was given an awful ride when third to Amanpour. She has upside and is yet to peak.
The Queen Elizabeth (2000m) is the race of the Autumn and the field assembled is high class. I am going with 12 Lucia Valentina. Thankfully I got on at $17 on Monday prior to betting being suspended because now she is $7 and is hard in the market after a ripping run in the Coolmore (1500m) behind Peeping in a race where the form has really held up eg Azkadellia, Vergara, Zanbagh. Recent trial at Newcastle was very encouraging, Ollie back on and the last time she was at 2000m, she was the best run of the beaten brigade in the Hong Kong International Cup and did beat Criterion in that race by two lengths.
I wouldn’t have touche 1 Criterion off his first up run in the Canterbury (1300m) behind Holler, but he was much better next time out in the Ranvet (2000m) when a closing third to The United States. He won this race last year and while I am not sure he is going as well as what he was leading into last year, he has upside here and gets the services of the form rider at the moment, Tommy Berry.
If there is value, I think it lies with 6 Happy Trails. His Australian Cup (2000m) run was outstanding given he was the only horse in the race to make up any sort of ground on the leaders, and the form has held up thanks to Preferment. He had no luck in this race last year but is ticking over nicely now, draws a lovely gate and trainer Paul Beshara always gets him firing for the big races.
Other races at Randwick
. Crown Him looks value in the Fernhill
. Suspense can continue his unbeaten streak in the South Pacific
. Supreme Effort, if he runs up to his trial win, will give the Provincial Championships Final an almighty shake
. Gretna, with better luck than last start, can win the Percy Sykes
. Counterattack looks good overs in the Arrowfield Sprint
. Private Secretary each-way all day in the Sapphire
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