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Will the Panthers rope in the Cowboys?

The Cowboys will have to do it without Thurston in 2017. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Roar Guru
9th April, 2016
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Penrith return home this Saturday night to face an even bigger hurdle when Johnathan Thurston and his premiership-winning Cowboys ride into Pepper Stadium still looking for their first away win of the season.

Both teams are looking for back-to-back victories for the first time in 2016, and come into this clash with last-start wins albeit achieved in completely different circumstances.

The fourth-placed Cowboys had nothing more than a training run against a poor Dragons outfit that hardly challenged North Queensland’s defence, running out comfortable 36-0 winners in Townsville last Saturday night.

The twelfth-placed Panthers on the other hand, were again in one of those tight finishes but unlike most of their other results to date in 2016, they managed to rise to the occasion to steal an improbable 20-18 win on the siren after trailing by 6 with seven minutes remaining.

It was a result that confirmed that for all his failings in what is still a young and developing career to date, Bryce Cartwright when he gets it right, is a bona-fide match winner for the Panthers, having scored two tries and having another correctly disallowed.

The return of Matt Moylan can’t be underestimated either.

Having been out of the game for the best part of ten months, the fullback’s return provided some stability to a Panthers attack that has often been criticised for lacking composure in match-winning situations and despite looking rusty at times, Moylan will be better for the run coming into this clash.

The skipper’s assured performance at the back is a boost given that level of assurance has been missing over the course of the opening month in his absence.

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The Panthers despite their lowly position on the table look more than capable of vastly improving as their new-look combinations begin to gel and have already claimed the scalp of North Queensland’s arch rivals Brisbane earlier in the season.

But the Cowboys are a different proposition altogether as they travel to Penrith in great form with all their big guns – Thurston, Morgan, Coote, Scott and Tamou in terrific form.

In fact this clash represents former Panther Lachlan Coote’s second home-coming having played an instrumental role in the Cowboys’ 2015 30-10 win over Penrith and will be looking to stake a claim for the NSW Origin fullback’s spot when he comes up against his successor, Matt Moylan.

The only issue for the Cowboys at the moment is consistency, given all three wins so far in 2016 have come at home.

Team news
The Panthers have added Elijah Taylor and Suaia Matagi to an extended six-man bench, although Taylor has also been named to start in the Intrust Super Premiership clash against Newcastle so it’s highly likely his services won’t be required again by coach Anthony Griffin.

The Cowboys, who gave Javid Bowen – the nephew of club legend Matt – a NRL debut last Saturday against the Dragons, again holds his spot in an unchanged North Queensland side.

The Panthers, who have the least effective defence in the NRL missing nearly 39 tackles per game, will need to find a way to stop a Cowboys side that ranks first in the NRL for metres gained.

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On the back of that go forward, it’s allowed the mercurial Thurston to weave his magic, leading the NRL once more in line breaks and try assists, allowing the Cowboys to lead the NRL in points scored, given their wingers, centres, halves and forwards have already crossed for multiple tries in 2016.

While the Panthers pack have played well in patches, they will only overcome the defending premiers if the likes of Cartwright, Merrin, Campbell-Gillard, Peachey and McKendry rise as one and all take their games to another level.

The edge runners in particular could cause problems for the Cowboys if they can find ways to consistently isolate Cowboys’ weak links in defence – Coote and Thurston, but that is a task often easier said than done.

Key match-ups
Matt Moylan v Lachlan Coote
Jamie Soward v Johnathan Thurston
Sam McKendry and Reagan Campbell-Gillard v Matthew Scott and James Tamou

Key stats
In 33 games played between these sides, Penrith holds a slender advantage 18-15 but the Cowboys have won 5 of the last 6 games scoring 30 or more points in the process on each occasion.

At Pepper Stadium, its eight wins each but the Panthers have enjoyed a slender advantage in recent times having won three of the last five games played.

The Cowboys however defeated Penrith 30-10 at Pepper Stadium in 2015 and are looking for their first away win since their epic grand final defeat of the Broncos last October at ANZ Stadium.

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Panthers last three games: 20-18 versus Eels, 12-14 versus Dragons, 23-22 versus Broncos

Cowboys last three games: 36-0 versus Dragons, 20-21 versus Broncos, 40-0 versus Roosters

Under this week’s referees, Ashley Klein and Adam Gee, Penrith have a combined win-loss record of just eight wins from 26 games officiated by either of the pair, while the Cowboys fare a little better having achieved 18 wins from 34 games officiated by either of the pair.

Penrith will be hoping they fare better this time under Klein and Gee having endured a 10-3 penalty count in the opening half-hour against the Dragons back in Round 4.

14 players from North Queensland will be backing up from that Round 5, 2015 win over Penrith while 11 players return for the Panthers.

Incredibly eight Panthers have either yet to defeat or play the Cowboys, conversely just one Cowboys has yet to play Penrith.

Teams

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Penrith Panthers
1. Matt Moylan (c) 2. Josh Mansour 3. Waqa Blake 4. Peta Hiku 5. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 6. Te Maire Martin 7. Jamie Soward 8. Sam McKendry 9. Peter Wallace 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Isaah Yeo 13. Trent Merrin
Interchange: 14. Tyrone Peachey 15. Leilani Latu 16. Suaia Matagi 17. James Fisher-Harris 20. Elijah Taylor 21. Jeremy Latimore (two to be omitted).

North Queensland Cowboys
1. Lachlan Coote 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Justin O’Neill 4. Javid Bowen 5. Antonio Winterstein 6. Michael Morgan 7. Johnathan Thurston (c) 8. Matthew Scott (c) 9. Jake Granville 10. James Tamou 11. Gavin Cooper 12. Ethan Lowe 13. Jason Taumalolo
Interchange: 14. Rory Kostjasyn 15. John Asiata 16. Scott Bolton 17. Ben Hannant

Match officials
Referee: Ashley Klein.
Assistant: Adam Gee.
Sideline Officials: Jeff Younis, Dave Ryan.
Review Officials: Ben Galea and Jason Robinson.
Senior RO: Bernard Sutton.

Stew’s view
The Panthers form isn’t as up and down as much as some would have you believe. But it’s been a season where the attention to detail (or lack of at times), those one percenters that have more often or not come back to haunt the Panthers particularly when hanging onto slim leads inside the final ten minutes of games.

The Panthers in fact seem more comfortable staying in touch and playing from behind rather than leading from the front.

But if the Panthers can find a way to build-up a dominate lead during games, more wins will come.

That said, this week’s clash against the Cowboys might not be the game where the Panthers enjoy such success.

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While Penrith return home on a high for the first time in 2016, the Cowboys despite their inconsistency in playing away from home so far don’t look far away from clicking into overdrive and showing all and sundry why they should be the current premiership favourites.

The Cowboys are very strong up front and with the likes of Tamou, Scott, Cooper, Lowe and Taumalolo, they will try and intimidate and outmuscle the largely inexperienced Panthers pack.

If that advantage is gained by the Cowboys pack, it could be a long night for the Panthers given their halves Thurston and Morgan have a glaring advantage over the inexperienced Te Maire Martin and veteran playmaker Jamie Soward.

But given games involving Penrith in the past four weeks have been decided by margins of 2, 1, 2 and 2, don’t be surprised if the improving Panthers give the Cowboys an almighty shake before their class and experience prevails in a thriller.

Tip: Cowboys by 4.

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