- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
The first few weeks of an AFL season is always the hardest time to write about the sport.
We want to react to what we’re seeing before us, but are at pains not to overreact. How do we know what is real and what isn’t? Can we trust what our eyes are telling us about certain teams? Stats can’t really be assigned any meaning, because the sample size isn’t big enough.
Sydney are undefeated on top of the ladder after three matches, but the sides they’ve beaten have only won two games between them. Gold Coast is also yet to lose a game, but the teams they’ve played have a combined one win so far, and are in fact universally expected to fill the bottom three positions on the ladder.
North Melbourne’s 3-0 record looks a little bit more credible based on their Round 1 win over Adelaide, who haven’t lost since. But conceding 20 goals to Melbourne? Most would say that’s not the recipe for a premiership tilt, even if the wind in Tasmania on Sunday could be an alibi. As would human nature, given it is natural for players to relax after establishing a commanding lead, as the Kangaroos did.
Fremantle are possibly the biggest story in the game, from a top of the ladder finish in 2015 to winless so far in 2016, even if they have probably lost to two top-six sides in the first three weeks.
The Dockers will only start favourite in two of the next five matches. They’re unlikely to be better than 3-5 after Round 8, and they would have to defy expectation, and their own playing style, to achieve even that.
Yet their run up to the Round 15 bye is extremely friendly indeed, based on what we’ve seen of each club so far. We can expect Freo to find better form than they are currently showing by that stage of the season, but then perhaps the likes of Richmond and Collingwood will also be in better form when Fremantle has to face them. Such are the vagaries of the AFL fixture.
It’s not just about who you play twice, and who you play once and where, but when you strike certain teams in their respective peaks and troughs. Luck will always play a part in any sport.
The Tigers and Pies were popular picks for the top eight before the season started. Richmond are now paying $2.75 to make it, while Collingwood are $3.25. Your sanity would be questioned for even thinking about it based on how badly they’ve performed so far.
But this is the Richmond way. Over the last three years they’ve made the finals from positions of 2-4, 3-10, and 4-5. It does look unlikely this time, and the best they can hope for from here is to be 4-5 again, given a tough six weeks coming up.
A lot of teams look treacle-slow when they are out of form, and the Tigers have always looked terribly so under Damien Hardwick. It’s easy to forget that part of Richmond’s rise up the ladder in 2012-13 was due to playing some of the most exciting football of those seasons.
Collingwood have been sitting inside the eight after Round 8 in each of the four years under Nathan Buckley. The way they end the season has been their issue, so this current sluggish start is a new problem.
The Pies’ draw opens up over the next five weeks though, and they get the chance to build confidence and prove they aren’t as bad as they’re currently being made to look.
But if the coaching staffs of Melbourne, Essendon, Carlton and Brisbane are smart (they also play West Coast in that run), they will emphasise pressure, pressure and more pressure in the lead-up to those matches.
Collingwood’s skill level was questioned by most before the season, and we’re seeing why so far. They’ll turn the ball over when free in space, and this multiplies exponentially when they are harassed. St Kilda showed the way in this regard, as they often do.
If the Pies can’t win at least three of those games, then they can be forgot as a finals hope. Fans will demand four wins.
So, after all of that, I’ll declare that Sydney, North, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, West Coast and Hawthorn will make the eight, with only two other spots up for grabs.
Brisbane, Carlton and Essendon definitely won’t be there. Melbourne and St Kilda are still unlikely. The pencil will be hovering over Fremantle, Collingwood and Richmond for a while yet, although some may wish to draw the line firmly through them.
Gold Coast, Adelaide, Port and Greater Western Sydney have all looked good at various times, while the latter two have disappointed more than they’ve thrilled.
What about you? Which team have you seen enough of to declare one way or the other? Which side is your own personal jury still out on? Is it too early to make such declarations, or do we have more than enough information?