For the second consecutive year, east meets west on a Monday night as the Sydney Roosters return home to Allianz Stadium for the first time since Round 4 against 2003 grand final foes Penrith.
The Roosters (as with the Knights) finally secured their first win of the season last round, a gritty 17-10 win against bitter rivals, South Sydney and will be looking for a repeat performance from prop Dylan Napa, whose 80-minute, man-of-the-match effort was arguably the most dominant seen so far in 2016.
The win over the Rabbitohs also does Penrith a favour as they can ill-afford to take the Roosters lightly despite missing the likes of Boyd Cordner, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Sio Suia Taukeiaho and Mitchell Pearce.
Throw in the off-season departures of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Michael Jennings and James Maloney and it’s easy to see why the Roosters have struggled over the opening six rounds.
But despite two heavy losses to Souths and North Queensland, the Roosters, like their opponents Penrith, have suffered some heart-breaking losses and could easily be higher placed then where they are.
A 77th minute field goal at the hands of Canberra in Round 2; a hotly disputed 74th minute no try decision from the bunker in losing to Manly by two in Round 4 and an extra-time golden try conceded against the Warriors the next round.
Sound familiar Panthers fans?
Of course it does especially after North Queensland came up with the clutch plays both in attack and defence in the final ten minutes to snatch victory from Penrith’s grasps.
Despite having arguably played their best game of the season against the defending premiers, once again Penrith’s inability to put teams away came to the fore.
Against the Cowboys as they have done against Canberra, Canterbury and St George, Penrith again led during the second half only to concede points inside the last ten minutes of games after not being able to inflict the knockout blow.
In fact Fox Sports Lab confirmed during the week that the combined margins for Penrith after six rounds are the lowest in 50 years – 8, 2, 1, 2, 2, 5.
But while Penrith’s lowly position on the table doesn’t reflect their ability in being able to stay in the contest for 80 minutes, sooner rather than later, the Panthers need to step out of the ‘we could have been 6-0 mentality’ and start producing some tangible results.
That importance is magnified when you consider the Panthers do not return to Pepper Stadium until Round 11 against Gold Coast.
This clash against the Roosters is followed by games against Cronulla (away), Canberra (home – Bathurst) and the New Zealand Warriors (home – Christchurch), with a representative round nestled in between the last two fixtures.
How Penrith handles this considering they won just three from thirteen games played away from Pepper Stadium in 2015, could well determine whether the Panthers will be in finals contention by Round Eleven or just making up the numbers.
Team news
The Roosters, having been winless over the opening five rounds of the season, are suddenly looking for back-to-back wins but will have to do so without impressive back-rower Sio Siua Taukeiaho (knee).
In a reshuffled line-up Mitchell Frei comes into the side via the interchange bench while Aiden Guerra’s move back into the forwards, allows Jayden Nikorima another opportunity in the starting line-up alongside another young half in Jackson Hastings.
However the late mail suggests that young NYC half Connor Watson could be in line to make a shock NRL debut.
While named on a six-man interchange in what was otherwise an unchanged line-up, Elijah Taylor and in somewhat of a surprise, Jeremy Latimore were dropped to play Wyong Roos earlier today.
Tyrone Peachey, who was dropped to play in the Intrust Super Premiership last Sunday against the Knights, was also named on that six-man bench and looks set to reclaim a spot in the final 17.
But while coach Anthony Griffin stated that James Segeyaro (Round 8-9) and Dean Whare (Round 9) will not play tomorrow night, it would not surprise (although unlikely) if the 2014 Dally M Hooker of the Year was named in the final 17.
One player sweating on Segeyaro’s availability is Te Maire Martin.
Te Maire Martin, who started his NRL career with a bang against Brisbane last month, is still getting used to the week-to-week speed and grind that playing first grade presents.
Despite setting up one of the tries of the season last week for Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, the Junior Kiwi needs a big game to consolidate his spot in the 17, given the good form of Jamie Soward and Peter Wallace.
Who comes out on top of this clash is likely to be decided by who out of the Roosters right-edge / Penrith left-edge defence comes out on top?
In their last encounter, Sydney Roosters trio Mitchell Aubusson, Blake Ferguson and Shaun Kenny-Dowall tormented and tore apart Penrith’s frail left-edge defence.
And despite the addition of Peta Hiku to the playing roster, that issue is far from resolved with two tries again coming down the side of Jamie Soward, Peta Hiku and Josh Mansour last Saturday night.
But the Roosters in 2016 have their own problems with their right-edge defence with Ferguson and Kenny-Dowall having missed a combined 33 tackles thus far after six rounds.
The Panthers will also have to ensure that Dylan Napa’s iron-man performance is not repeated for the second week in succession and conversely get greater output from their own props, Suaia Matagi, Sam McKendry and even Reagan Campbell-Gillard, whose combined metres against the Cowboys (140m) were less than Napa’s 141 metres.
The key match-ups
Blake Ferguson versus Peta Hiku
Jackson Hastings versus Jamie Soward
Jake Friend versus Peter Wallace
Dylan Napa versus Reagan Campbell-Gillard
The key stats
This is the 86th clash between the pair with the current ledger favouring the Roosters 53 wins to 31 with one game drawn.
The Roosters enjoy a 28-14 win home advantage with one drawn including 12 wins from 20 games played at Allianz Stadium.
The Roosters have won five out of the past six clashes between the two teams and have not been defeated by Penrith since the epic qualifying final thriller in 2014, having defeated the Panthers twice in 2015: 20-12 (Round 3 – Allianz) and 24-4 (Round 18 – Pepper).
Roosters last three games: 17-10 versus Rabbitohs, 28-32 versus Warriors, 20-22 versus Sea Eagles
Panthers last three games: 18-23 versus Cowboys, 20-18 versus Eels, 12-14 versus Dragons
Under this week’s referees Jared Maxwell and Matt Noyen, both teams have average records with both Roosters and Panthers having a combined win-loss record of 14 wins from 33 games officiated, all at the hands of Maxwell.
But games between the pair officiated by either referee, Penrith enjoy a slender 2-1 advantage under Maxwell in fixtures played.
10 players from Sydney will be backing up from that Round 18, 2015 win over Penrith while nine players return for the Panthers.
Incredibly eight Panthers have either yet to defeat or play the Roosters while six Roosters are playing their first game against the Mountain Men.
Stew’s view
A real toss of the coin.
Penrith do have the form on the board given the closeness of their losses against classy opposition, but so too do the Roosters in three of their five losses to date, arguably just as meritorious given the players missing at the moment for the Roosters when compared to Penrith.
But both sides, especially the Panthers need to show that their efforts mean something more than just credibility.
The result?
Expect a dour match as both sides will look to dominate the middle.
But the experience of former Rooster, Jamie Soward combined with the potential brilliance of Te Maire Martin, might just be enough for Penrith to secure victory in yet another game that will go down to the wire.
Panthers by 4.
The teams
Sydney Roosters
1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Brendan Elliot 4. Blake Ferguson 5. Shaun Kenny-Dowall 6. Jayden Nikorima 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Sam Moa 9. Jake Friend (c) 10. Dylan Napa 11. Mitchell Aubusson 12. Aidan Guerra 13. Isaac Liu
Interchange: 14. Kane Evans 15. Mitchell Frei 16. Eloni Vunakece 17. Abraham PapaliiPenrith Panthers
1. Matt Moylan (c) 2. Josh Mansour 3. Waqa Blake 4. Peta Hiku
5. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 6. Te Maire Martin 7. Jamie Soward 8. Sam McKendry 9. Peter Wallace 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Isaah Yeo 13. Trent Merrin
Interchange: 14. Leilani Latu 15. Jeremy Latimore 16. Suaia Matagi 17. James Fisher-Harris 19. Tyrone Peachey 20. Elijah Taylor (two to be omitted)Officials
Referee: Jared Maxwell. Assistant Referee: Matt Noyen.
Sideline Officials: Adam Reid and Jason Walsh.
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