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For the past few Origins, Johnathan Thurston (an Immortal in waiting who will soon usurp Andrew Johns as the greatest halfback of all time) and Cooper Cronk (part of the Storm spine that has delivered premiership success) have wreaked havoc on NSW teams.
While in all other positions the two sides have generally found parity, the gulf between these two and the numerous NSW halves combos has been immense. It’s the main reason the Blues are looking at a 1-9 deficit in Origin series.
To determine who is the best equipped to deal with the Queensland halves, they will be compared to them.
The contenders
Josh Reynolds and Trent Hodkinson are the last NSW halves to actually win a State of Origin title. Built on the back of eight years of failure, NSW were finally able to fall over the line, taking Game 1 by four points and Game 2 by two points, before being slaughtered in the third by 24.
Blake Austin and Aidan Sezer can tear defences apart, as has been on display in the few games the Canberra pair have played this year. And while they have been injured, I won’t adjust this, as game time together is also a factor.
James Maloney hasn’t won Origin and Chad Townsend has never played, but at present the Sharks halves are NSW’s most successful combo in terms of wins and losses in 2016.
More State of Origin:
» State of Origin news
» State of Origin fixtures and kickoff time
» State of Origin teams
» James Tedesco should be Australia’s fullback
» Hey Laurie, don’t commit the same mistakes as those before you
For the purpose of this exercise we will go by the stats from the first part of the 2016 season to determine which combo can give NSW the best possible chance of success. The combination with the best stats should face Queensland.
(All information courtesy of NRL.com)
| Tries | Goals | Field goals | Points | |
| Cronk/Thurston | 4 | 31 | 2 | 80 |
| Reynolds/Hodgkinson | 1 | 16 | 0 | 36 |
| Maloney/Townsend | 5 | 26 | 1 | 73 |
| Sezer/Austin | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
Verdict
Maloney and Townsend take the points. They are the only NSW combo who have a field goal between them, and have delivered more tries than the Queensland pair. Sezer and Austin also have five tries, but neither is a specialist goal-kicker
| Try assists | Line breaks | Line break assists | Offloads | |
| Cronk/Thurston | 12 | 4 | 10 | 3 |
| Reynolds/Hodgkinson | 9 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Maloney/Townsend | 7 | 0 | 7 | 2 |
| Sezer/Austin | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Reynolds and Hodgkinson just edge out Maloney and Townsend, but all NSW combos are way behind Cronk and Thurston.
| Runs | Dummy half runs | Run metres | |
| Cronk/Thurston | 106 | 2 | 636 |
| Reynolds/Hodgkinson | 94 | 3 | 625 |
| Maloney/Townsend | 112 | 3 | 979 |
| Sezer/Austin | 42 | 2 | 251 |
Verdict
Maloney and Townsend are far more effective running with the ball in hand, and more likely to take advantage of tiring forwards late in games.
| Errors | Penalties | Missed tackles | Tackles | |
| Cronk/Thurston | 6 | 11 | 43 | 204 |
| Reynolds/Hodgkinson | 9 | 4 | 43 | 261 |
| Maloney/Townsend | 12 | 9 | 51 | 243 |
| Sezer/Austin | 4 | 2 | 18 | 95 |
Verdict
Sezer and Austin have the fewest errors, Reynolds and Hodkinson have the closest parity to the Queensland combo, while errors and missed tackles are alarming for Maloney and Townsend.
| 40/20 | Kick metres | Win/loss record | |
| Cronk/Thurston | 0 | 4120 | 5 and 2 |
| Reynolds/Hodgkinson | 0 | 2638 | 2.5 and 0.5 and 4 |
| Maloney/Townsend | 0 | 1800 | 5 and 2 |
| Sezer/Austin | 0 | 1157 | 3 and 1 and 3 |
Verdict
Maloney and Townsend are the only NSW combo with a winning record to date. In relation to kick metres, Reynolds and Hodkinson are clearly first, but all pale in comparison to the Queenslanders.
Overall
Even though Reynolds and Hodkinson are the last winning halves combo, so could be considered a safe option, that doesn’t always result in success.
To beat Queensland, NSW need to score more points.
The attacking potency, ability to kick field goals, and success this season means the numbers favour Maloney and Townsend as the best chance for NSW.
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