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Why Adelaide will edge Wanderers in classic grand final

25th April, 2016
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Adelaide United struggled in the Asian Champions League this season. (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)
Expert
25th April, 2016
90
1450 Reads

I’ve got enormous respect for Western Sydney Wanderers and don’t doubt they are in with a great chance of winning the A-League grand final, but I’m tipping Adelaide United to emerge victorious from what promises to be a fabulous contest.

The two best teams in the competition, for sure, have made it to the decider after a weekend of semi-finals in which they won in vastly different circumstances.

Adelaide’s outstanding defence limited the contributions of Aaron Mooy and Bruno Fornaroli and after leading 2-0 the Reds were cut back to 2-1 before grabbing a couple of late goals. It wasn’t as comfortable as 4-1 suggested, but they were easily the better side.

Western Sydney began well against Brisbane Roar, but then disaster struck and all of a sudden they were down 3-0 midway through the first half. Wanderers never panicked, however, and used the fact there was plenty of time left to cut the deficit down and eventually get to the lead, 4-3.

Roar came back to equalise at 4-4, but Wanderers finished much the better to win 5-4 in extra time.

It is obviously not good under any circumstances to fall into an 0-3 hole, but it wasn’t as if Brisbane had outplayed Wanderers with dazzling football to get to that point.

A couple of defensive errors, both by Andreu, cost Western Sydney badly. First, a hand-ball led to a penalty which Roar converted, and then he tried to clear the ball from a free kick with a back-heel and it ended up in his team’s own net.

Brisbane’s third goal came from a good move that was finished off by Jamie Maclaren. His shot took a deflection that sent the ball looping over a helpless goalkeeper, but the fact was the defence was under pressure and Maclaren took advantage, so credit to him.

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Wanderers got to the lead the first time through three goals from Romeo Castelen, who is usually more miss than hit with his shooting but was fortunately “on” this night, and another from Brendon Santalab, and Dario Vidosic came up with the deciding goal.

It was a great display of character from Wanderers, and one which Adelaide will have taken plenty of notice of because it says everything about their opponents. They are relentless, they don’t give in and they have tremendous self-belief.

Western Sydney went about their comeback in calculating fashion and their supreme fitness was obvious in the extra 30 minutes.

Adelaide are also relentless, don’t give in and have tremendous self-belief. There is clearly not much between the two teams, as evidenced by the fact all three of their clashes this season have ended in draws. It was 1-1 in Adelaide and twice 0-0 in Sydney.

Looking for what may prove the difference at Adelaide Oval on Sunday, I go with Adelaide’s defence. It has been the best in the competition this season.

United conceded just 28 goals in 27 games in the regular season and 14 of those goals came in a four-game stretch way back in rounds three to six.

In the first eight rounds, when Adelaide couldn’t win a game and had five losses and three draws, they conceded 17 goals. In the 19 rounds after that, they had 14 wins, four draws and one loss and conceded just 11 goals. That is phenomenal.

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I recently interviewed Adelaide defender Michael Marrone and asked him why he believed their defence was so good.

“The first thing is how we set up and the tactics that are involved there, and the second thing is we run,” Marrone said.

“We’ve got a team full of players who don’t stop running for each other, all game. The young boys and the older boys, they all run.

“But you’ve got to have the tactics set out right or you’re just running pointlessly and we’ve got a really good set-up. Everyone knows their roles and where they need to be at certain times and what they need to do.

“So if the opposition have the ball and a certain player has got it, we’ll have a fair idea what they’ll try to do from there and we’ll know whether it’s time to put pressure on or drop off.

“Everyone knows their roles to a ‘t’ now. It was a bit rough at the beginning of the season, but we got there.”

This is, I believe, the essential difference in Adelaide under Guillermo Amor as coach and the team under previous coach Josep Gombau.

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Adelaide didn’t have a bad defence previously, but they could occasionally be ragged in their transition to defence after losing possession and that undoubtedly cost them goals.

Their transition now is consistently excellent and that is largely why they were able to put so much pressure on Mooy and Fornaroli, for instance, in both the last-round clash, which Adelaide won 2-0, and the semi. Everyone works so hard and does their job so well.

Wanderers coach Tony Popovic will no doubt come up with a plan to try to counter that and loosen things up a bit for his attack, and it may prove to be a very good plan.

Adelaide’s home venue, Coopers Stadium, was obviously too small to be considered for a grand final, but Adelaide Oval is still Adelaide. United can prepare at home and Wanderers have to travel. That has got to be some advantage to the Reds.

Each team have the attack that can win this game. Western Sydney have mostly been very good in defence, but Adelaide’s defence has been better and I reckon that will prove crucial on the day.

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