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The fact New Zealand is now officially a joint member of a conference with Australia means it’s easier to closely compare what is on offer in each country.
This year is a tough year to watch Australian teams in Super Rugby. The best team on this side of the ditch is the Brumbies. They are now second in the group to the Rebels, but going by the way the Australian derby matches have played out, those positions should flip before the season ends.
The Rebels would currently be the lone Australian side to qualify for the finals if the season ended. They have a minus nine-point differential. After eight rounds, the best Aussie team has allowed more points than they’ve scored. Don’t think even Stephen Bradbury would be proud of the way anyone is setting themselves up for a finals tilt.
And if an Australian team wins from here, it would take a Bradbury-esque run. Four teams from the New Zealand group have more competition points than any Australian team, and that isn’t a distortion of the early part of the draw or any other random outcome. On Sunday afternoon, the Crusaders – arguably the third or fourth best Kiwi team, but that might change as they keep improving – absolutely toweled up the Brumbies, the top team here.
It wasn’t even as close as the score indicated. The Crusaders had a stronger maul, a better scrum as the match wore on, better tactical kicking (despite a few poor ones from Israel Dagg), better offloading, better intensity and seemed to play with clear minds.
Brett McKay wrote yesterday that consistency was the main problem. I’m now of the opinion their good games just aren’t good enough to beat the best. Consistency is an issue, but it isn’t enough to lift them to a point where challenging the New Zealand teams is possible.
The top Australian teams at this point are the Brumbies, Rebels and Waratahs (probably in that order). Let’s take a peek at their best wins so far, matches where they dominated and pulled away on the scoreboard.
Best wins for the Brumbies were against the Hurricanes, Waratahs and Force.
Best wins for the Waratahs were against the Reds and Force.
Best wins for the Rebels were against the Sunwolves and the Cheetahs.
Out of all their dominant wins, only one came against a New Zealand team – the Brumbies’ lopsided result against the Hurricanes – and that was in Round 1, where blips can happen as a team blows out the final rust.
The Brumbies are, for the most part, doing the business in derbies. That’s the strength of their push to a qualifying spot atop the Australian conference. But big loses against the Chiefs and Crusaders seem to show they’re behind the eight-ball when it comes to strength against the group.
A close loss to the Highlanders is the Waratahs only encounter with a cross-group conference team so far. The Highlanders were pushed but not broken in that match. There will be more New Zealand Tests for the Waratahs, and many will be hopeful after the flogging they gave the Force.
But how likely is it a team that lost twice to the Brumbies and once to the Rebels already, on top of a squeak of a win against the Reds, is going to run the slate against the Crusaders, Chiefs and Hurricanes while they duke it out for a finals spot?
In their two opportunities against Kiwi opponents the Rebels lost handily against the Hurricanes and Highlanders, despite putting up a fight. The Rebels face off against the contending Chiefs and Crusaders later in the season.
The evidence suggests the New Zealand teams are just plain better than the Australian ones, rather than consistency being the problem. The Waratahs could play as well as they did against the lowly Force every week but keep losing by four to the Highlanders.
Would playing with the kind of professionalism and efficiency the Brumbies displayed in handling the Waratahs twice and Hurricanes in Round 1 produce the goods against other Kiwi teams? I’d argue the Crusaders just showed them they are now more efficient and execute their plans with more efficiency.
Can the relentless effort the Rebels showed to get wins against the Sunwolves, Cheetahs and Waratahs grind a Kiwi team to dust? I’d argue the Chiefs offer a consistent effort with a much higher skill level that the Rebels just can’t match, even if they do bring it.
All four top New Zealand teams are able to find favourable field position and find a grove in their own game plans better than any Australian team can. These are the basics at this level, and they’re just better at them.
On top of that, on the evidence in games so far, the New Zealand teams are winning in two other significant ways: offloads and physicality.
New Zealand has continued the All Blacks strategy of tiring teams, working them over and making them make more tackles by emphasising the offload at Super Rugby level. The Crusaders hammered that point home against the Brumbies on the weekend, but every team does it.
Forward are playing for the offload, and the smaller runners are lining up to make them count, in the manner of good rugby league full backs. Keeping the ball alive stresses the defence, making them move as far as they would to stop two phases in order to contain just one.
Usually, the teams that make Australian teams worry about physicality are from South Africa. And while there are some huge humans destroying people in that group, the New Zealand conference has been doing the same this year.
While they aren’t always bigger and using sheer force, the New Zealand forward are winning in contact and being more accurate at the break down. They are creating space for attack like the Waratahs did in 2014. There is room around the ruck because they push tacklers backwards and don’t get bogged down defending their ball as often as Australian teams do.
Winning the physical battle gives a rugby team more options and means kicking less possession away because three and four metres are being made even on the least successful phases – enough to keep things moving in the right direction.
Regardless of the style or plans each of the Brumbies, Rebels and Waratahs decide to employ from here on out, they must start winning more physical battles and finding creases by using the offload. If they don’t, the second half of the season is going to be a long one with replays of the Kiwi wins we’ve already seen in the Australasian group.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.