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What do statistical power rankings tell us to expect this AFL season?

Roar Rookie
27th April, 2016
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Cyril Rioli was one of Hawthorn's best. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Roar Rookie
27th April, 2016
14

How good are stats? Just when you think that all hope is lost for your team, you find a statistical precedent for how it all can be turned around (unless you go for Fremantle, that is).

But how to use stats? Even the ultimate statistic – the scoreboard, which then translates to the AFL ladder – can be misleading. For example, Hawthorn are premiership favourites, but not in the top four.

This article will come up with an alternate ladder after five rounds, to try and gauge the season by ranking each team with reference to how many wins have been scored by sides they have beaten.

For example, Brisbane have only won once against the Suns, but will be awarded three wins here, as that is how many wins Gold Coast have.

Hopefully, this can give a bit more of a guide as to how teams are really travelling, a sort of statistical power rankings, if you will.

Of course, this comes with the massive disclaimer that, given the small sample size of five rounds, there are clearly going to be some pretty whacky results.

1. Hawthorn
11 wins by opponents beaten, 105.5 per cent

Hawthorn have won three games in a row by three points, reminiscent of Geelong in 2014. As Ryan Buckland will tell you, this will regress to the mean eventually, so maybe the Hawks really are in decline. Or maybe that is just hopeful thinking from the supporters of the 17 other AFL clubs.

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2. North Melbourne
10 wins, 123.9 per cent

North have won every game, beaten Adelaide who are many people’s form side, and are clear on top of the ladder. Yet they are ranked six in The Roar’s power rankings, and are constantly forgotten in football conversation. Maybe that is unfair, and we should talk about them more, or maybe it is because everyone sort of gets the feeling that while they might make a prelim final, the Roos won’t be premiers, as Jarrad Waite can’t really be this good of a footballer… can he?

3. Sydney
Nine wins, 154.8 per cent

Sydney look ominous at home, but are yet to pass a real away test, losing to Adelaide in a cracker and beating Carlton in a canter. They will likely be sitting 8-1 come their Round 9 clash with Hawthorn (they have Brisbane, Essendon and Richmond next), which is when we will learn a bit more about how good they really are. But overall, finals seem a lock, top four likely, and a Sydney premiership shaping as a distinct possibility.

4. Geelong
Eight wins, 149.4 per cent

Geelong recruited Patrick Dangerfield, and while conventional wisdom is that one player can’t buy a flag, here it just might. The Danger-Wood or Sel-Field combination (sorry) must stay fit for the Cats to have any chance, but the point is they do have a chance if it does, given the quality of the duo.

A soft draw makes the finals a certainty and top four very likely, so Geelong must remain part of calculations.

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Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong in this top four – how fun and unusual!

5. Greater Western Sydney
Seven wins, 130.3 per cent

GWS have some outstanding speed across half back in Nathan Wilson and Zac Williams, who rebounded the ball on the fast track of Etihad more quickly than the Dogs’ backline. Jeremy Cameron is a star, and there are no obvious position in which the Giants are lacking.

The should make the finals.

6. Adelaide
Seven wins, 118.2 per cent

Adelaide indeed look a better team without Dangerfield, but that does not mean they won the trade and Geelong lost – seemingly both teams have improved, a classic win-win deal.

Scott Thompson and Rory Sloane are warriors and their backline sets up attacks exceptionally well, yet can remain leaky.

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7. Melbourne
Six wins, 111.4 per cent

In most football conversation, there is a clear top-eight (Hawks, Swans, Eagles, Cats, North, Dogs, Giants and Crows), and then there is Melbourne, inarguably the most impressive team not in that list.

The speed the Dees play at is completely different to previous years, and their midfield is almost as imposing as any, with Max Gawn now the AFL’s second best ruck. There are still question marks however over both their attacking set-up and backline.

8. Western Bulldogs
Three wins, 173.5 per cent

The Dogs seem to be everyone’s second team and there was heartbreak when Bob Murphy went down. Their defence has been outstanding, both going forward but perhaps more impressively restricting scores. But for the Dogs to really convince me they can win the flag, they will need to win outside. This is grossly unfair of course, as they have not had the opportunity to win other than at Etihad, yet still the doubt remains.

9. Brisbane
Three wins, 66.7 per cent

This is where these rankings start to get a bit whacky. Brisbane in ninth? Several spots above the Eagles? What?

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Brisbane have actually been fun to watch this year, but that’s just the thing. They are fun, sort of entertaining, but not a hard, ruthless football team capable of winning games in a slog. Justin Leppitsch is lucky not to be coaching in Melbourne.

10. Essendon
Three wins, 59.5 per cent

Alright, so this one is weird. Anyone who watched Anzac Day can tell you Essendon are closer to re-hiring Steven Dank than the tenth best team in the comp. So it really is amazing that the Demons managed to lose to them.

Sure the Dons try, but on talent they probably have the weakest list in the comp, for obvious reasons.

11. Gold Coast
Two, 121.1 per cent
Gold Coast started well and were riding high on the ladder after Round 3, yet these rankings reveal why: they didn’t play any good teams.

Aaron Hall looks like a superstar against average teams, but decidedly average against superstar teams. Gary Ablett looks injured or sore, or maybe he is just getting on, but he is not influencing games like he did pre-injury. Tom Lynch is however a possible top-ten player.

12. West Coast
Two wins, 119.8 per cent

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The Eagles cannot shake the flat-track bully tag. They win and win well at home, yet have decisively failed both tests away at Hawthorn and Sydney. The step required to take them from a clear second-best last year to premiers has not happened, and while top four is likely, they need to show a lot more away from Subiaco to really convince me they can win the flag.

13. Collingwood
Two wins, 85.6 per cent

Collingwood’s pre-season expectations were really skewed by how much footy fans love inter-club player movement. James Aish and Jeremy Howe became superstars, when any Lions or Demons fan will tell you they were borderline best 22.

So Collingwood’s season has really gone as expected: they have some good, not great midfield players, an over-matched defence, and a forward line that desperately needs Jamie Elliot. It will be tough for them to make finals.

14. Port Adelaide
Two wins, 82.3 per cent

David Koch won’t be happy. Port Adelaide are becoming a bit of a fraud team. Their first quarter against the Cats was great, but then they tried to show bravado, and couldn’t back it up. 2014 must have been one out of the box, and the Power are really no better than a lower-half side.

15. St Kilda
Two, 79.0 per cent

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St Kilda try hard, the building blocks are there, but the execution isn’t just yet. Take Nick Riewoldt out and the Saints would really struggle.

It is an interesting time to be a St Kilda fan. Mostly the supporters have accepted the rebuild and been pleasantly surprised on the journey, however some of the players really need to start playing consistent footy, otherwise doubts will set in as to whether this group will ever make it before the next rebuild starts.

16. Richmond
One, 76.6 per cent

Can you call what Richmond did in recruitment a ‘moneyball’ approach? Getting players like Shaun Grigg, Shaun Hampson, Bachar Houli and Troy Chaplin to try and win a flag?

Unfortunately, this approach led them to three elimination final losses, and it seems that another rebuild is on the way. Which, when said like that, is really tragic for Tiger supporters.

17. Fremantle
Zero, 69.7 per cent

“Strap yourselves in!” This was a tweet from Ross the Boss pre-season and he hasn’t disappointed – rverything has gone wrong at Freo.

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Harley Bennell has been injured, they couldn’t land a key-forward, and the best player in the comp, Nat Fyfe, will likely miss most of the season.

People could foresee this fall coming, but no one thought it would happen so quickly and so completely.

18. Carlton
Zero, 67.1 per cent

If you are a Carlton fan reading this and have come to the conclusion that this is all just one massive troll to put Carlton back into last place, then I can understand you. And I’d be lying if I didn’t smile to myself once the numbers came up that Carlton were 18th.

The truth is, Carlton have actually mostly exceeded expectations this year. They have a crack and with limited talent that is all the Blues fans can ask for really.

But the biggest shock of the AFL season so far is Liam Jones’ winning a game against Freo in Subi off his own boot in the last quarter.

So there we have it, the rankings have revealed that Hawthorn will win the flag and Carlton the wooden spoon. This is what most people expected, and now we can start to focus on 2017.

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Have a look at Michael DiFabrizio’s subjective power rankings and let me know if you think these are more accurate.

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