By the numbers: Tedesco should be the Blues No. 1

Roar Pro

27th April, 2016

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James Tedesco (AAP Image/Action Photographics, Rob Cox)

S T Ruggling

Roar Pro

27th April, 2016

Following up my analysis of the halfback and five-eighth combo, I’ve moved onto another hotly-contested position for State of Origin, fullback.

Since the departure of Jarryd Hayne, who was one of the first names on thr Blues’ team sheet, departure has surrounded who should take over the fullback spot for New South Wales. Once again, let’s break down the numbers to see who will pose the biggest threat from the back.

The benchmark
With the absence of Billy Slater, and Queensland’s penchant for playing Greg Inglis at centre, the current benchmark fullback is the Australian incumbent, Darius Boyd.

The contenders

Will Hopoate
Traditionally a winger who has made the move to fullback in recent times, Hopoate has played Origin before but is yet to reach the form he had prior to his Mormon mission.

Lachlan Coote
Cowboys fullback and a forgotten man when it comes to Origin, Coote is being chased by numerous Sydney clubs. Is the unsung hero of a potent Cowboys attack.

Matt Moylan
Seen by many as an Origin player-in-waiting, injuries have stalled Moylan’s progress. Many pundits also see a future move to five-eighth similar to Darren Lockyer.

Josh Dugan
An experienced Origin player at outside back positions, if Dugan isn’t the fullback he will still be in the NSW squad.

Michael Gordon
Gordan is the fullback in a resurgent Eels side, and is the only recognised goalkicker on the list. Solid but, at 32, would only be seen as a temporary Origin solution.

James Tedesco
A bright spot in a severely struggling Tigers team, Tedesco isregarded as an incredibly dangerous player with the ball in hand.

More State of Origin:
» State of Origin news
» State of Origin fixtures and kickoff time
» State of Origin teams
» Hey Laurie, don’t commit the same mistakes as those before you

Criteria
Stats from NRL.com will be used to determine who is the best fit for the Blues. Emphasis will be on attacking potency, however if errors and penalties are common it will go against a player, as will their team’s win-loss record.

	Hopoate	Coote	Moylan	Dugan	Gordon	Tedesco	Boyd
Tries	6	2	1	1	1	8	2
Goals	0	0	0	0	24	0	0
Field Goals	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Points	24	9	4	4	52	32	8

Verdict
While Gordon has the most points scored, this is predominantly due to goal kicking, and there will likely be other goal kicking options in the squad. Tedesco on’s average of one try per game tips the results in his favour.

	Hopoate	Coote	Moylan	Dugan	Gordon	Tedesco	Boyd
Try Assists	2	6	2	0	0	6	1
Line Breaks	2	3	0	5	1	7	2
Line Break Assists	2	5	2	0	1	8	2
Offloads	6	2	6	4	5	4	0

Verdict
A solid showing from Coote but Tedesco again highlights his attacking potency with the equal-most try assists, the most linebreaks, and most linebreak assists. A headache for any defence.

	Hopoate	Coote	Moylan	Dugan	Gordon	Tedesco	Boyd
Kick Return Metres	416	279	151	435	354	324	338
Run Metres	1079	594	436	1467	975	1095	1161

Verdict
Dugan takes the honours with the most run metres and kick return metres, while Tedesco and Hopoate are relatively on par with Boyd.

	Hopoate	Coote	Moylan	Dugan	Gordon	Tedesco	Boyd
Errors	2	7	3	11	8	7	4
Penalties	2	3	3	2	0	0	1
Missed Tackles	5	15	12	18	9	10	11
Tackles	24	53	32	82	43	31	46

Verdict
Hopoate is a safe option in regards to errors and missed tackles, while Dugan and Coote’s an alarming number of missed tackles is offset by the fact they have made more tackles than their other rivals. Tedesco and Gordon have shown the best discipline, with no penalties conceded this year.

	Hopoate	Coote	Moylan	Dugan	Gordon	Tedesco	Boyd
Win/Loss Record	5 and 3	6 and 2	3 and 5	4 and 4	5 and 3	2 and 6	7 and 1

Verdict
This is the only mark against Tedesco. Despite his form, he is in a team which has lost six straight games. Hopoate, Coote and Gordon are all in teams occupying the top half of the table.

Overall
Despite the current win-loss record, Tedesco’s dangerous attacking ability should make him one of two Tigers in the NSW Squad (Aaron Woods being the other).

Dugan should not to be fullback, but will occupy a Blues position either on the wing or at centre, with Hopoate potentially in the same boat.

Other goal-kicking options in the team rule Gordon out, and Coote’s lack of versatility unfortunately means he’ll miss out. Moylan may find himself in an Origin jersey, but it shouldn’t be this year.

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