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Super Rugby tipping Round 10 – hail the mighty Moondogs and all who tipped them

28th April, 2016
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The Sunwolves have been cut. (The Yomiuri Shimbun via AP Images)
Expert
28th April, 2016
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What a moment. The euphoria that erupted around the Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium in Tokyo as barnstorming centre Harumichi Tatekawa barged over on time to secure the Sunwolves’ first-ever Super Rugby win was nothing compared to…

…the euphoria that erupted around McSport HQ when after three previous failed attempts, those bloody beautiful little Moondogs had finally earned me a point. What a moment, indeed.

Logically, this week it’s all about me, after I awarded myself the honour on a countback, as well as putting this week’s Big Super Rugby Question out there as well.

Last Week: Brett, Harry, and The Crowd 6; Digger and Paddy 5.

Brett McKay: So then, the top of the text pile. I can see my house from here…

The Sharks might have had their moment on tour last weekend under the roof, and the Chiefs are pretty protective of their newish turf in New Plymouth still, so that tip feels easy.

The blue Bulls look like they’re currently jacked up on Red Bull, the way they’re playing with pace and throwing it around like no Bulls side before them. That and the Force cannot get Jono Lance back on the field soon enough. So that one’s easy too.

The next two are harder. I’m going with the Rebels because they just have to win. Just have to. If they don’t, it’s red pen time for them.

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The Highlanders in the deep south will be stung by last week’s Sharknado, and I worry for the Brumbies without the best player, Joe Tomane, and potentially without their second-best player, Stephen Moore. But they similarly have to win, too, so if picking against them is what it takes, then I’m happy to be proved wrong.

Reds, Lions, Stormers all seem easy too. I’ll be interested to see how the Waratahs’ minimal breakdown copes with the Stormers’ battery-company-bunny forwards at Newlands.

And the Jaguares, in Buenos Aires, against the Kings, should be the easiest tip of the season. But it’s just not. I’ll still tip them, just, but nothing would surprise me in this game.

EVERY SUPER RUGBY GAME, LIVE ON FOXTEL

Tips: Chiefs, Bulls, Rebels, Highlanders, Reds, Lions, Stormers, Jaguares.

Harry Jones: “Congratulations on persisting with the Sunny Side Up Wolves every week until they won against the only team with more knocks than a knock-knock joke, Brett.

“The Chiefs have scored 30 more tries than the Sharks; that margin will probably continue. The Bulls are notoriously bad travellers, but the Force just don’t seem to have the horses to run with these Bulls.

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“The Highlanders and the Brumbies may stage a classic boxer versus brawler bout, and it’s a tough one to handicap, but I’ll take the home side at Invercargill.

“The Blues to nip the Rebels by a nose at Eden Park and trigger a slow descent for the visitors.

“The Reds’ travel schedule back to Brisbane can’t help them, but I will back them to win a six-tries-to-three match against the matador defence of the tackle-Free State.

“The Lions have lost 4-5 key forwards; I’ll back the Hurricanes in a playoff preview.

“The Stormers might have the youngest team in the competition, and barely have a captain, but their ‘eighty minutes of hell’ approach should work at Newlands against a mercurial Tahs squad. Finally, the Jaguares will notch their second win, against a Kings team without a playmaker.”

Tips: Chiefs, Bulls, Highlanders, Blues, Reds, Hurricanes, Stormers, Jaguares.

Diggercane: “’Canes by plenty.

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“The Chiefs should have too many points for a Sharks team on tour while I feel the same for an expansive Bulls team on their first week of touring over a disappointing Force.

“I am backing the Highlanders to get over the Brumbies at home, given the Brumbies lack of form and disruptions, while I think the Blues will be too much for the Rebellion at Eden Park.

“Despite all the recent travel, I feel the Reds may have too much size in the backs for the Cheetahs to deal with and I am yet to be convinced the Waratahs have turned any corners so the hometown Storm for me.

“Surely the Jaguares here at home over the Kings, but then I said that last week. Oh well, Jaguares it is.”

Tips: Chiefs, Bulls, Highlanders, Blues, Reds, Hurricanes, Stormers, Jaguares.

Paddy Effeney: “It’s time a number of teams started winning.

“The Jaguares are my number one when it comes to this – quite simply losing to the Sunwolves was unacceptable and they need to bounce back. The Highlanders are also due a win after disappointing last weekend against the Sharks.

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“The rest of the games are bloody tough to tip I have to say. No easy games this week. I’ve gone with the flip a coin, then mostly pick the home team method for my tipping.”

Tips: Chiefs, Bulls, Highlanders, Rebels, Cheetahs, Lions, Stormers, Jaguares.

The BIG Super Rugby Question: Is the Australian conference a genuine three-way battle again, or has the Brumbies’ loss just given the Rebels and Waratahs false hope? (from Brett)

Harry: “The Brumbies’ recent losses have allowed the Rebels to nose ahead; the Waratahs’ renaissance has poised them in striking distance with a game in hand. But the Brumbies hold more face cards.

“First, comparing the Brumbies’ stretch run to the Rebels: they both play three mutual opponents (relatively unscary tilts against the Reds, Blues, and Force), but I would favour the Brumbies against the Blues, whilst I am tipping the Aucklanders against the Melbourners this weekend. All in all, I see the Brumbies winning five of their remaining seven games (including the Melbourne derby), but the Rebels only winning two of their final seven.

“So, for me, it’s a Tah-Brumby duel down the stretch, with the Sydney lads favoured in at least four of their last eight, and a toss-up in a couple. The Tahs’ four toughest matches feature the Stormers, the Crusaders, Chiefs, and the Hurricanes. The latter could prove to be critical for Hooper and his boys, if they are going to muster enough bonus points and log wins to catch the well-settled Brumbies.”

Paddy: “The Aussie conference is a dogfight, and only one hound is going to make it out alive.

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“It’s as open as they come; write off no one, particularly not the Waratahs who’ve been sleeping all year but are very capable of stringing wins together.”

Digger: “This is difficult to really pinpoint. I am unconvinced the Rebels can beat top sides so I would find them hard to back right now, while the Waratahs still have the majority of the NZ sides to face and have only begun their tour. A promising result last week, but yet to be seen whether the same application can be made against stronger opposition.

“Given their roster, I would still back the Brumbies from here, but I cannot say it confidently. Two comprehensive results at home against two of the more favoured teams at this point is not confidence building but at least in their favour they have already defeated their closest Australian rivals three times with only one game remaining against the Rebels and the majority of the New Zealand sides are behind them along with their overseas venture. The Brumbies look the best placed from here but if the off-field distractions continue, who really knows?”

Brett: I think the uncertainty in everyone’s reasoning here today means that it probably is a three-way race again. That might not necessarily be the case after this weekend, but equally, it could be further underlined.

In reality, all three teams need to win this weekend. And the Waratahs have a game in hand over the Brumbies and Rebels, which could work in their favour. The Brumbies and Rebels taking points off each other in a fortnight is another bonus.

They’ll need to go into the June break with a similar separation as the current five points:
• For the Rebels, that next five rounds are: Blues away, bye, Brumbies, Chiefs away, and the Force.
• For the Brumbies, it’s Highlanders away, Bulls, Rebels away, bye, Sunwolves.
• And for the Waratahs, it’s: Stormers away, Cheetahs, Bulls, Crusaders away, and the Chiefs.

Three wins each over the next five rounds would see the status quo remain. But if the ‘Tahs snuck a win against one of the NZ sides, then the three teams would be level.

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For now at least, I think it’s suddenly very open. But the caveat on that is that ‘form’ can be a week-to-week proposition at the moment, and none of the three teams can afford to drop games for the next little while if they have any designs on playing finals footy.

The Summary

Now over to you guys…
Make your selection in each of the eight Round 10 games below, and we’ll collate all the votes and publish the results after 2pm AEDT on Friday afternoon…

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