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Can Penrith square the ledger in the golden west?

The Panthers are destined for greatness. Eventually.(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
Roar Guru
29th April, 2016
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Penrith take the first of two consecutive home games away from Pepper Stadium when they head over the mountains to Bathurst when they host their nemesis, Canberra Raiders at the picturesque Carrington Park venue for the third straight year this Saturday.

A win this Saturday will improve what is currently a mixed record in the Central West town having gone down to the Sharks 18-16 before belting a hapless Gold Coast Titans 40-0 last season.

It’s a game where the Panthers will not only be looking to square the ledger, not only for their Round 1 defeat at the hands of the Raiders on a hot Canberra afternoon, 30-22, but also to square the overall record against Canberra in terms of overall wins.

In 68 clashes to date Canberra has won 34 games to 33 with one drawn and the points differential between both sides is just two points.

The 30-22 defeat to Canberra remains Penrith’s largest loss in 2016 as the Panthers now own a unique record that they would rather trade in for competition points.

Fox Sports Stats show the average margin of victory in Penrith matches this season is just 3.25 points, bettering the record previously held by Newtown way back in 1941 (3.38 average margin).

Their resilience cannot be questioned given Penrith have either won or lost by eight points or less so far in 2016, with seven of the eight rounds were determined by less than a converted try, including three losses by just two points.

The Panthers arguably deserve a top eight spot given their 80 minute efforts against some of the top sides such as the Cowboys, Broncos, Eels, Sharks and Bulldogs.

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The “Cardiac Kids” as the Panthers are fast becoming known as in 2016, are giving Panther supporters not only hope each week with their never-say-die attitude, but in all likelihood a near heart attack too.

But the bottom line is that Anthony Griffin’s men have only managed to win three of those eight games to date as their inability to close out games has cost them dearly.

Penrith’s latest heart-breaking loss came last Sunday at the hands of Cronulla Sharks, going down by two points despite outscoring the opposition four tries to three.

The Panthers put in a courageous performance against one of the competition front-runners in enemy territory having lost Waqa Blake and Te Maire Martin in the first half to injury, only for normally reliable goal-kicking to desert Penrith when it mattered most.

But the Raiders will be no pushovers as Ricky Stuart’s men, led by Dally M leader Josh Hodgson and Kiwi Test hopeful Jordan Rapana, arrested an alarming form slump that saw the early season competition front runners concede 76 points in consecutive losses to the Eels and Sharks, with a resounding 60-6 thumping of the Wests Tigers last Saturday night.

Team news
The Panthers welcome back some big names as they look to overcome the loss of Te Maire Martin (shoulder – season) and Waqa Blake (hip – one week) but have suffered a further setback since.

Having initially named Dean Whare, James Segeyaro and Sam McKendry in an 18 man squad, Whare has joined Martin on the side lines for the remainder of 2016 after suffering a training mishap on Wednesday afternoon resulting in a ruptured ACL in his knee.

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The injury will ensure a late reshuffle to the side.

At this stage, Segeyaro has been named to start at hooker with Peter Wallace re-uniting with Jamie Soward in the halves. Isaah Yeo, named in the back-row is set to play in the centres, which may allow the likes of James Fisher-Harris, Tyrone Peachey or Sam McKendry to start the game.

The line-up also represents the first time Penrith’s 2014 spine – Matt Moylan (fullback), Soward (five-eighth), Wallace and Segeyaro have played together since Round 12, 2015.

James Segeyaro’s return is a considerable boost for the Panthers as the off-contract hooker, having suffered his fractured arm in that Round 1 clash with the Raiders will have a point to prove against the form player of the competition in Josh Hodgson.

While Canberra’s monster pack will have to be at their best around the ruck to minimise Segeyaro’s impact from dummy half, so too will Penrith in having to deal with Hodgson.

Hodgson has gone from strength to strength in 2016, having impressed to date with his running and kicking game that has culminated in six try assists and has been instrumental in all of the Raiders’ victories this season and shutting down the English rake, will go a long way to securing a victory for Penrith.

Penrith’s task despite their consistent form to date, will be to get the better of Stuart’s monster pack, which just got bigger with Frank-Paul Nuuausala named on a five-man interchange bench in an otherwise unchanged side that win over the Tigers.

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The Green Machine are still without Iosia Soliola, Jeff Lima and former Panther Blake Austin, with Sam Williams continuing to guide the team in his absence, although it remains to be seen (however unlikely) whether the enigmatic five-eighth will be a late inclusion for the Canberra side with the Representative Round just around the corner.

While Canberra’s back received the plaudits in their huge win last week, it was their forwards with the likes of Shannon Boyd, Paul Vaughan and Josh Papalii leading the way that had the Tigers on the back foot all night.

If Canberra’s forwards are again allowed to dominate the middle in that same manner, the Panthers could be in for a long afternoon especially if opportunities are afforded for in-form right-edge combination, Joseph Leilua and Rapana who between them have racked up over 70 tackle-breaks this season and will relish taking on Penrith’s shaky left-edge defence.

The key match-ups

Matt Moylan v Jack Wighton
Peter Wallace v Aidan Sezer
Bryce Cartwright v Josh Papalii
James Segeyaro v Josh Hodgson

The key stats
Despite the close record between the sides, Canberra has all the momentum in recent times having won their last three games against the Panthers, as Penrith will be looking to avoid a fourth straight loss to the Raiders for the first time since 2008.

Shannon Boyd is expected to play his 50th NRL game while Jamie Soward plays his 50th NRL game for the Penrith Panthers.

Last meeting: Raiders defeated Panthers 30-22 (Round 1, 2016).
Panthers last three games: 18-20 versus Sharks, 20-16 versus Roosters, 18-23 versus Cowboys.
Raiders last three games: 60-6 versus Wests Tigers, 16-40 versus Sharks, 6-36 versus Eels.

Under this week’s referees, Gavin Reynolds and Alan Shortall, the Panthers enjoy a much better record having a combined win-loss record of 24 wins from 34 games officiated with one drawn, while the Raiders have only won 12 of 33 games officiated by either referee.

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In games between the pair officiated by either referee, Penrith enjoys a 2-0 advantage under Atkins.

For one of the few times this season, Penrith’s NRL experience betters that of their opponents (1,344 games to 1,082) and are only missing Will Smith and Waqa Blake from that Round 1 loss.

The teams
Penrith Panthers
1. Matt Moylan (c) 2. Josh Mansour 3. Dean Whare 4. Peta Hiku 5. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 6. Jamie Soward 7. Peter Wallace 8. Leilani Latu 9. James Segeyaro 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Isaah Yeo 13. Trent Merrin.

Interchange: 14. Tyrone Peachey 15. Jeremy Latimore 16. Suaia Matagi 17. James Fisher-Harris 20. Sam McKendry (One to be omitted).

Canberra Raiders
1. Jack Wighton 2. Edrick Lee 3. Jarrod Croker (c) 4. Joseph Leilua 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Sam Williams 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Shannon Boyd 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Josh Papalii 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Shaun Fensom.

Interchange: 14. Kurt Baptiste 15. Luke Bateman 16. Clay Priest 17. Joseph Tapine 18. Frank-Paul Nuuausala (One to be omitted).

Match officials

Referee: Gavin Reynolds. Assistant Referee: Alan Shortall.
Sideline Officials: Brett Suttor and Rohan Best.

Stew’s view
The Raiders returned to the form last week and how albeit against woeful opposition, while the Panthers continue to play good, tough football, and Seyegaro’s inclusion is no doubt a massive boost.

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The Panthers since Round 3 have an alternating win-loss record and are due for a win this week based on that trend.

But more importantly they are due to give their suffering fans a week’s grace from having to endure a nervous final ten minutes with a dominant performance.

I’m tipping the Panthers to get out to a decent lead-up before a late Raiders comeback provides some respectability to the final score, as the opportunity for a mid-season run after the Representative Round looms.

Panthers by 8.

Penrith Panthers v Canberra Raiders
Carrington Park, Bathurst
Saturday 30 April
Kick-off at 3.00pm
Televised: Fox Sports 1, coverage from 2:30pm.

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