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Giro d'Italia 2016 preview series: The Netherlands, mountains and the Alpe di Siusi

The Giro d'Italia hits the flat 17th Stage with a bunch sprint on the cards. (Photo: Stephanie Constand)
Expert
1st May, 2016
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Grand Tour season is upon us, with the Giro d’Italia kicking off on Friday night (AEST). As Alberto Contador is focusing on the Tour de France this year, there is no defending champion but the mountains throughout the final week are absolutely punishing, so whoever takes over the mantle will be deserving.

Breaking from tradition, but following on from last year, the race will start a day earlier than most grand tours, on the Friday with the first three stages to be raced through Northern Europe in the Netherlands.

What is traditional about this grand tour, although maybe bucking slightly from Giro trend, is the fact the first week will be more of a waiting game than anything else. At this time of year, the weather can be volatile, but the key will be to not lose time early on for the main men as the sprinters and punchy type riders get their shot at a few stage wins.

The mountains will kick off on Stage 6, although that will be only a teaser. The flat roads will be quickly forgotten about from Stage 13 onwards, though, with the riders heading into hell over the last eight days of racing.

Stage 1: Individual Time Trial (Apeldoorn, 9.8km)
Things will get underway with an individual time trial which is too long to be considered a prologue. However, it is flat as a pancake and still under the 10km mark, so the time-gaps shouldn’t open up too much.

The biggest problem may well be the weather. It has a tendency to change and get quite ugly, especially at this time of year and, if wind and rain strike at certain points of the day, we could see some riders badly affected, and others not so.

You would hate to see major contenders affected in that way, but with 20 stages to follow, there will be plenty of chances to hit back.

Stage 2: Flat (Arnhem to Nijmegen, 190km)
Wind and rain could again be an issue when the riders set off for the first road stage. It is mainly flat all the way, and should suit the sprinters but, as is the case with any first road stage, there will be nerves, and if there is wind and rain they will be amplified.

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Crosswinds could well cause a split in the peloton with the General Classification teams pushing things along to keep their riders out of trouble. Expect the breakaway to be swallowed up early, and the sprinters that make the front group to take out the stage.

Stage 3: Flat (Nijmegen to Arnhem, 190km)
The third stage goes back to Arnhem, more or less back up the same road as Stage 2. The two intermediate sprints come about mid-way through the stage, before things get a little lumpy down towards the finish line. As there was in Stage 2, there will be one categorised climb.

Again the weather could play a factor, but there should be fewer nerves. This has bunch sprint written all over it.

Stage 4: Hilly (Catanzaro to Praia a Mare, 200km)
Breakaway alert folks! If this stage doesn’t scream breakaway then nothing ever will. At the same time, because of its earliness in the race and likely participation of Philipe Gilbert, BMC may try to take over.

For the first 110 kilometres it is relatively flat, but then there are two Category 3 climbs, followed by lumps and bumps all the way to the line, with a downhill finish. In fact, most of the last seven or eight kilometres are downhill, meaning a daring attack on the final uphill could result in a runaway victory.

Stage 5: Flat (Praia a Mare to Benevento, 233km)
Tough to tell where this stage could end up. Could be another opportunity for the breakaway, although it won’t be down to a late attack this time around. Despite only one categorised climb almost 200 kilometres from home, the middle of the stage will be a real leg-burner as it goes up and down.

For the final 50 kilometres, most of it is flat, with a gradual trend downhill. So in that sense, it is hard to see the sprinters not being in the peloton. Still, a very long stage so anything could happen.

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Stage 6: Mountains (Ponte to Roccaraso, 157km)
The first real test in the mountains. There are two Category 2 climbs, one of them being a summit finish. While gaps are likely to open up here, we should only expect defensive moves unless one of the key contenders has lost big time early in the race.

With 15 stages still to come, it will be a chance to test the legs, but not much more.

Stage 7: Flat (Sulmona to Foligno, 211km)
With two categorised climbs on route, and the stage gently rolling up and down all day long, this stage will hurt the legs but the sprinters should hold on here. After the tough Stage 6, this could potentially be the day for a breakaway.

A Category 2 climb appears early on, as does a Category 4 with about 40 kilometres to go, before a flat finish into Foligno.

Stage 8: Medium Mountain (Foligno to Arezzo, 186km)
It could be the stage for the punchers in the peloton to shine. A perfect length, with one solid climb at the end of the day, only a daring attack will break the sprinters back here, unless a breakaway decides to go all the way again.

The Category 2 climb near the end of the day comes at the end of a flat day, within 20 kilometres of the finish line. Certainly you won’t win the Giro here, but a mistake and you could lose it.

Stage 9: Individual Time Trial (Radda in Chianti to Greve in Chianti, 40.5km)
This will be one of the tougher stages of the race. A 40-kilometre time trial is never easy, but put it over some very sizeable hills and it becomes plain unpleasant.

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It all kicks off about 500 metres above sea level before the riders lump their way back down to about 200 metres. They then climb back up to 450 metres in a period of five kilometres, before descending to the line.

An interesting point here will be whether road or time trial bikes are in use.

Stage 10: Medium Mountain (Campi Bisenzio to Sestola, 219km)
Following a rest day, the riders will come straight back out to the mountains. It will be the second summit finish in Sestola with four categorised climbs on route.

The first two of those come early in the day and are only Category 3 before the stage rolls its way to the bottom of the Pian del Falco. While the Category 1 climb is not overly tough, it could split things up and a long range attack could be launched. The final climb is only 7.9 kilometres long and not all that steep, so gaps which stand before the final climb may hold their way to the line.

Stage 11: Flat (Modena to Asolo, 229km)
The first 200 kilometres of this stage are pancake flat, and, apart from a couple of intermediate sprints, there shouldn’t be any challenges on the route. Everyone will try to save energy while the sprinters will prepare to make use of what could be one of their last opportunities.

Unfortunately for them, the last 20 kilometres has a Category 4 climb and a number of little lumps and bumps, before a downhill run to the finish.

Stage 12: Flat (Noale to Bibione, 182km)
This is the true definition of a sprinters’ stage. It’s 182 kilometres long and the road doesn’t go more than 38 metres above sea level. It would be a shock if the sprinters didn’t win here.

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Stage 13: Mountain (Palmanova to Cividale del Friuli, 170km)
Four categorised climbs on this stage, with two Category 1s and two Category 2s, but with what is to come on Stage 14, the firepower will probably remain largely unused here.

After the first Category 1 and 2 climbs, the field will probably thin out before the peloton take on about 30 kilometres of valley roads. They will then climb the Cima Porzus for about eight kilometres, and then quickly onto the Category 2 Valle. Both are steep, but again the descent and flat finish should give time for a small group to cross the line together.

Stage 14: Mountain (Alpago to Corvara, 210km)
This actually puts me in pain just looking at the profile. Six categorised climbs, three of them Category 1 and we could well see some eliminations here.

Despite there being no summit finish on this stage, nearly all of the first 80 kilometres are uphill into the climb of Passo Pordoi. Then it sharply goes down, up, down, and up over the next four climbs within 50 kilometres. There is then a small relaxation period as it goes downhill, before the Category 1 Passo Giau and Category 2 Passo Valparola, taking the peloton to 2200 metres above sea level.

There is then a descent for the line. The main question on that will be ‘who takes the risks’ and ‘who takes the bonus seconds?’

Stage 15: Mountain Individual Time Trial (Castelrotto to Alpe di Siusi, 10.5km)
The Giro then returns to the famed Alpe di Siusi for an individual time trial, the third of the race at 10.5 kilometres, with maximum gradients of 11 per cent.

We have seen time trials on Mountains before, with riders losing big time. The one that sticks in the mind was 2013, as Cadel Evans lost minutes to Vincenzo Nibali at the Giro.

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Stage 16: Medium Mountain (Bressanone Brixen to Andalo, 132km)
The shortest road stage of the 2016 Giro, and some serious uphill elevation with two Category 2 climbs and a summit finish Category 3, but really not a metre of flat.

The final Category 2 climb sees uphill for 12 kilometres before a short descent that doesn’t give anyone a chance to rest, then a steep kick back up hill for the finish line.

Stage 17: Flat (Molveno to Cassano D’Adda, 196km)
A chance for everyone to rest, with a fair few hills early on. Only one Category 4 climb, before the final 75 kilometres are completely flat.

This should end in a sprint finish, but if the teams are recovering then a breakaway could get away with it.

Stage 18: Hilly (Muggio to Pinerolo, 244km)
Not a place where the Giro can be won, but the traditional stage into Pinerolo after 240 kilometres features a very punchy Category 2 climb just 20 kilometres from the finish line.

Riders who need to make up plenty of time will try to fire here while everyone else defends like mad men. Again, it could lead to a breakaway, while the sprinters who can climb could well view this as another opportunity.

Stage 19: Mountain (Pinerolo to Rissoul, 162km)
The final two days in the mountain will be absolute killers – as one would expect from a Giro d’Italia. The first climb is ranked outside categorisation to Dell’Agnello. The climb is officially 29 kilometres, but they go uphill for longer than that. Following is a long gradual descent before they line up for the steep, 12-kilometre Category 1 climb into Rissoul.

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Stage 20: Mountain (Guillestre to Sant’anna Di Vinadio, 134km)
The last day in the mountains is brutal, as it should be.

Over a distance of just 134 kilometres, there are three Category 1 climbs that will see a total uphill distance of almost 60 kilometres, before a steep attacking three-kilometre effort to the finish line. It is that final effort that could break certain riders, who would have been tapping out a rhythm all day only to have an attacking sort of finale to the first Grand Tour of the year.

The winner of the Giro will have to be in a great position coming into the stage, but there is the potential to lose plenty of time on Stage 20.

Stage 21: Flat (Cuneo to Torino, 163km)
Flat with a few lumps into Torino. Not much other to say other than it will be a parade stage, and whichever sprinters make it over the mountains will have a chance at one last stage victory.

So there it is. The route for the 2016 Giro d’Italia. Roarers, what are your thoughts on it? Who does it favour, and where are the key points of the race?

Tomorrow, we take a look at the sprint stage contenders or the lack thereof, and the roll of punchers in the race.

Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde

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