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The Tyne-Wear clubs face a perilous fight to survive

Rafa Benitez. (Doha Stadium Plus Qatar / Flickr)
Expert
1st May, 2016
6

There can only be one. Two of the Premier League’s most septic clubs are on the brink, and only one of them will resist the cathartic plummet to the jagged rocks below.

Both Newcastle and Sunderland have been steeping in a hot, mordant secretion for some time now, and now both are swelling horribly, eyes bulging as relegation looms. The path they’ve both trodden down the last few seasons is littered with multiple disastrous managerial choices, imprudent player purchases, and the caustic spit of a horde of bitter, frustrated fans.

This path has led them both to the present situation; an impossibly tight relegation run-in, alongside Norwich.

In Rafa Benitez and Sam Allardyce, both clubs at least have two experienced, capable stewards at the helm, finally. Taking over from the tremulous Steve McClaren and Dick Advocaat respectively, Allardyce and Benitez have already shown the sort of impact an organised, commanding gaffer can have on even the most haphazard band of footballers.

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Sunderland have only lost one of their last eight matches, to leaders Leicester, although they’ve only won one match over that stretch. Benitez, only in charge since March 11, is himself on a four-match unbeaten streak, with draws against Manchester City and Liverpool standing out eye-catchingly, almost as good as wins.

Crucially, both have been swift in instating a defensive revamp; naturally, this is Allardyce’s forte, but Newcastle have appeared more organised and stoic too, with the return of Chieck Tiote to the starting XI a key factor in this. Benitez wasn’t born yesterday, and even though he hasn’t experienced a challenge in England quite like this before, he can see that Jonjo Shelvey is not the midfield foundation upon which to build a successful relegation escape.

Allardyce has his own midfield enforcer, Jan Kirchhoff, the towering German, whose arrival in the Sunderland team has brought with it a supreme robustness, as well as a surprising ingenuity going forward.

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It feels right that one of these teams should go down, after flirting so recklessly with relegation for years. Of course, both might, and Norwich could scrape clear, but the Canaries’ loss to Arsenal on Saturday has added another blister to their chapped, struggling body, which may be mortal.

Also, Crystal Palace can still technically be dragged down, but for that to happen they basically have to lose all of their remaining games, with either one or both of Norwich and Sunderland winning all of theirs. But the trauma of relegation, cleansing though it may be, is not easily recovered from.

One worries particularly about Newcastle, with their bloated, high-earning, ego-heavy roster, and a new manager for whom the Championship will not suit. Mike Ashley, with his asset’s earning potential greatly reduced, may well seek to offload the club, something most fans will probably be overjoyed about, but an act that could further intensify a downward spiral.

Allardyce, on the other hand, has recent experience rehabilitating a club, avoiding further demotion, and returning to the Premier League at the first time of asking. He did so with West Ham, and though they may now gleefully ask in song whether he’s watching as they batter West Brom 3-0 and compete for European places, the Hammers have – at the very least – a small debt to pay to Allardyce for the stability he achieved there, after returning them to the top tier. There are few managers upon whom you can rely to survive the grueling maw of the Championship, but Allardyce is one of them.

So, Newcastle face Aston Villa – as close to a guaranteed win as you can get – and Tottenham next. Spurs may have already lost the title by then, and will be wallowing – or, considering the average age of the squad, sulking in their rooms – in disappointment. Newcastle can hopefully anticipate at least four points from these remaining games.

Sunderland, with three matches left, face Chelsea, Everton and Watford, and will hope to beat at least two of those teams.

Chelsea, annoyingly for their supporters, appear to enjoying themselves in these breezy, late-season days; they ought to beat the Black Cats. Everton and Watford are two teams in similarly odd situations.

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Both Roberto Martinez and Quique Sanchez Flores have been surrounded by swirling rumours of dismissal lately, and these last few performances, while meaningless in terms of points, have taken on an added importance, as potential palate cleansers – or, indeed, spoilers – to head into the treacherous off-season with. They may pose a sterner challenge than expected.

Local rivals never play nice, but this particular battle will be gruesome. The stakes, with new television money coming in, are high enough to induce vertigo, but both Newcastle and Sunderland must resist the urge to plunge. The precipice is crumbling, and will give way soon. At the bottom of the ravine lies the twitching, mottled corpses of Leeds, QPR, and Blackburn. Aston Villa is down there too, calling for some company. Resist, resist.

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