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We’re six rounds into the AFL season, and the year has taken shape to such an extent that the final eight is already set, in quantity if not yet in position. The jostling for top two and top-four finishes is where the intrigue will lie.
A few weeks ago, I wrote about how we shouldn’t overreact after three rounds, and that we didn’t yet know what was “real” of the things we were seeing. It was hard to know what was true, but the surest thing was that some of it would be.
Well, if a week is a long time in football, then three weeks is a lifetime, and the natural order is set. The gap between the top eight and bottom ten is vast. Thankfully, we’re likely in the most even battle for the flag we’ve seen in 20 years.
A quarter of the way through the season, we now have a fairly proportionate overview of each team.
North have made the early running off the back of a beautifully functioning forward-line led by the re-born Jarrad Waite, and a midfield being led by the dominance of Todd Goldstein and revitalised by the class of Daniel Wells.
The Roos got the Dogs at the right time last week, but their ability to scrap out a win, with minimal involvement from Goldstein, was a measure of their grit. The ability to win a number of different ways is invaluable.
North has only played two of the teams that will play finals, and won narrowly each time. It says that even though they are unbeaten on top, there isn’t a lot between a few sides, and other results also bear that theory out.
Geelong hasn’t really been tested for a month, but we’ll get more of a handle on them in the next two weeks when they face a West Coast desperate to prove themselves away from Subiaco and the Crows in Adelaide.
As expected, Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood have formed a dynamic duo, with solid support from the likes of Mitch Duncan, Steven Motlop and Josh Caddy. They have nine players that are averaging more than a goal a game, a league high.
Sydney has put together a solid body of work in the last month, strong wins over contenders GWS and West Coast, as well as pushing Adelaide all the way when on the road. If they can break even in matches against fellow contenders for the rest of the season, they’re on track for a 16 win year, at least.
No other side has five ball-winners the calibre of Luke Parker, Daniel Hannebery, Josh Kennedy, Tom Mitchell and Kieren Jack. There is still a query over their defence, and no other top eight side comes close to having as heavy a reliance on their leading goal-kicker than Sydney does on Lance Franklin, who has kicked a quarter of their goals.
Of the current top seven teams on the ladder, and thus excluding Hawthorn, the Swans have by far the most proven body of work across both home-and-away and finals over the last two years, which gives them more credibility than the others. The case is there that they are the team to beat in the premiership race, with a top-four spot theirs to lose.
Western Bulldogs were the hot team to start the year, but the gloss is starting to wear off a little, even if that is in some ways driven by injury.
The fact is they have played four almost certain non-finalists for four wins, and two highly probable finalists for two losses. Despite their reputation for “run and gun”, they are much more of a defensive than attacking side, ranked first in points against and 12th in points for. This off a softish draw with all matches at their home track.
Of the current top eight, the Dogs are by far the most vulnerable to dropping out, and will have their work cut out just to get a home final in week one. Avenues to goal looked a weakness in the pre-season, and so it is proving.
GWS are the latest hot side, with three consecutive wins by an average of 12 goals, against reasonable sides too, not against the dross propping up the bottom five or six spots on the ladder.
Leon Cameron has built a team intent on sharing the load, which they do across all the main statistical categories, both inside and outside. 11 players are averaging 20 possessions or more a game, they’ve had 19 individual goal-kickers, and their tackle-load, clearances and contested possession is also evenly distributed.
The Giants are the true run-and-gun side of the competition, leading the way in running bounces too. Twelve other teams haven’t even had half of the 96 they have. Only two other sides have had more than 60.
They’ve got an interesting six weeks ahead, and if they can get through it 3-3, they can lock up their inaugural finals spot before July is out. They can rightfully eye off a stop-four position, but they are going to have unexpected lapses that may prevent them from securing it.
West Coast deserve no credit to this point in the season, despite a 4-2 record. They’ve beaten nothing at home in their four wins, and have travelled to play two contenders and been soundly whipped each time.
Even if they can’t beat Geelong or the Bulldogs away from home in the next five weeks, they’ll still likely be 7-4 at the halfway mark, yet barely relevant. At some point will we see what they’re really made of, or are we already seeing it?
Adelaide might not necessarily be the best team in it, but they’ve probably played the best football across the first six rounds, both from an attacking perspective and also to the naked eye. Defence is still a concern, but you may well say that for every team. If defence is a problem for everyone, then it’s a problem for no-one. Although, it means that’s where a competitive advantage may lie.
The Crows should be made better for the return of Brad Crouch, who just can’t get any continuity to his game at AFL level. Playing SANFL after a three week injury lay-off on the weekend, he had 36 touches, ten clearances and ten tackles, once more proving how far above that level he is.
No back six in the competition is equipped to handle the Adelaide forwards, so if they can continue to break even in the midfield, or even consistently win those battles, they should be a threat all year. Narrow losses to ladder-leading North and triple premier Hawthorn, plus a hard-fought win over Sydney further enhances the view that there isn’t much between any of them.
Hawthorn are in eighth spot on the ladder, but with a percentage that took a battering over the weekend, which was the price to pay after three narrow victories.
Across the home-and-away rounds last season, the Hawks ranked #1 in both attack and defence, while this year they currently sit 10th in points for and a more alarming 12th in points against.
There has started to be much talk about them being smashed in contested possession in the mainstream media, but as Roarer Damian Rutledge noted last week, it hasn’t been a strength of the premiership-winning Hawks.
Ball movement is where Hawthorn have outshone the competition in a big way over the last few years, and they simply aren’t moving the ball the way we’ve been accustomed to. They also aren’t winning the ball back in order to launch counter-attacks.
Josh Gibson has taken only four marks in three of his five games this season. Only twice in 25 matches last year did he take four marks or less. Given how important he is as both an intercept and link player, it’s a telling trend. The absence of Brian Lake is being felt.
Ryan Buckland had a good look at the sides in the bottom half of the ladder last week, so there’s no need to go into huge detail here.
Melbourne aren’t mature enough to be playing finals yet, but can be expected to in 2017. St Kilda don’t have the class, and are still a team in transition with a tricky year or two coming up. Port aren’t good enough – they’ve played three contenders for a 0-3 record with a percentage of 52. Hmm.
Gold Coast don’t have the depth to cover their significant injuries, but will trouble teams if they can get close to their best team on the park. They might still be the best team outside the eight. Outside the Carlton loss, Fremantle are getting incrementally more competitive, even as the soldiers fall. Ross Lyon’s press conferences are must-watch. Impressively unflappable.
Brisbane are having a sneaky good year amidst a terrible draw, and if they’d been handed a friendlier fixture to open the year they’d be 3-3 or even 4-2. Their challenge is going to be getting over the line when those winnable games come along after a string of losses. The Dockers couldn’t.
That leaves us with the traditional big four Victorian sides from the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s, which also happens to be the ages of Richmond, Collingwood, Essendon and Carlton fans that can remember when they were good.
The Bombers are what they are, but will pop up for another win or two at some point. For the Blues, beating fellow bottom four sides is their level, and it’s pleasing that they’ve done it twice when the opportunity has presented. The Tigers keep hitting rock-bottom, but refuse to be satisfied, and continue getting out the tools to drill even deeper.
The Pies have shown some signs of life in the last couple of weeks, notably in the first half against Essendon and the middle two quarters against West Coast. They might just be on the improve, but then it’s hard to go much lower than not registering a pulse.
Yes, it’s a long season. And yes, anything can happen. Injuries can strike, top teams can fall out of form and lower teams can find it. Even given all of that, the current top eight teams are too good to not register 12 wins, and the bottom ten sides are either too inconsistent, too immature or just plain bad, so they won’t get there.