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Will Kvyat head to Williams? It's not as crazy as it sounds

Daniil Kvyat in his last stint with the energy drink company racing brand. (Photo by Clive Mason/Getty Images/Red Bull Content Pool)
Expert
3rd May, 2016
6

Fortune has a fickle heart and a short memory, so the proverb goes. It’s a sentiment that Daniil Kvyat will understand all too well as, only two weeks after the heroics at the Chinese Grand Prix, his days at Red Bull may be numbered.

His disastrous performance in Sochi this weekend has put his place in doubt.

Some will say Kvyat was already halfway out the door, with Helmut Marko keeping one eye on exciting teenager Max Verstappen as his replacement. I’ll leave you to do the maths on how many eyes that leaves him with to look favourably upon Kvyat.

Head-to-head with Dan Ricciardo on race results (when both drivers have finished), half of the time Kvyat has had the wood over his teammate. However at 16-7 the qualifying results skew wildly in Ricciardo’s favour, and it is widely accepted that Kvyat simply isn’t as quick as the Australian over one lap.

“Very good drivers have always spent a maximum of two years with Toro Rosso and then moved up,” Marko told Auto Bild in Sochi.

“And Verstappen is extremely good.”

This could go some way to explaining the erratic outburst from Verstappen during the opening race of the season, impatient with the performance of his car and treatment from the Red Bull junior team, which he felt he’d outgrown. At the same race, Ricciardo faced a barrage of questions over a potential switch to Ferrari in future, a scenario he reluctantly dismissed and a narrative that Red Bull shut down with urgency.

This week Kvyat will face team bosses to explain what happened in Russia, and will presumably be put on notice.

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Top of the agenda during these talks will be his attitude behind the wheel. There’s no question he has pace, but he has also been characterised as emotional.

For the most part he has walked the tightrope admirably, with only a few uncertain steps along the way. Defenders are quick to point out that he edged past Ricciardo on points last season, although this overlooks that fact that Ricciardo took a number of engine penalties as the team opted for short-term pain in exchange for long-term gain.

That’s why my allegiances toward Kvyat are split. He’s a talented racer with a lot to offer, and until now he hasn’t displayed any of the reckless tactics or absent-minded clashes of a Pastor Maldonado (although the internet has wasted no time in making the comparison).

Still, he hasn’t done enough to defend his position at Red Bull, even before this weekend.

So what does the future hold? With a Russian Grand Prix on the calendar his marketability increases drastically. Could he be sent back to Toro Rosso? I’ll stick my neck out and say that it’ll never happen. Toro Rosso is a breading ground for the top team, not a refuge for the over-looked. Neither would it help them, nor Red Bull for that matter, in negotiations with Ferrari for the supply of engines – although it’s sounding like Red Bull may be content to stick with Renault power after all.

Although they are likely to replace Kimi Raikkonen next season, Sebastian Vettel has made his feelings toward Kvyat clear, and it’s unlikely they will want to upset his progress as they claw their way back to the top of Formula One. Mercedes are most likely to keep Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton, and a lot of the teams further down the field need drivers with serious financial backing, something the Red Bull junior drivers don’t often cultivate (because, why would they?).

Should Jenson Button retire at the end of the year there could be a seat for him at McLaren. Unfortunately for Kvyat, the impressive job done by reserve driver Stoffel Vandoorne makes him a shoe-in for that seat. Realistically, this leaves only three options; Williams, Renault and Haas.

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Romain Grosjean has performed admirably, so even if Kvyat strips naked and paints himself red, white and blue, there’s almost no chance Haas will be looking at him.

Renault has not only a young driver line-up, but a balance between recent junior category champion and an impressive talent in his sophomore year. As the team develops, so to will their drivers grow in confidence and experience, a recipe that has all of the ingredients for success.

So it’s Williams or bust. The option on Valtteri Bottas’ contract runs out at the end of this year, and he has been ear-marked as a potential player if the driver market does turn volatile. Even if Bottas stays with the team, they might still decide to pick up Kvyat and send Felipe Massa out to pasture.

I’ve written previously that Felipe doesn’t have a bright future in Formula One, and Williams may seize the opportunity to snatch up a highly rated maverick hoping that brings some urgency to their future championship aspirations.

All this depends on how Daniil Kvyat performs for the remainder of this year, and if he thought the pressure before it’ll be another situation entirely if he’s effectively courting other teams.

And at that point, he’ll truly show Ricciardo and Vettel no mercy.

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