The 2016 Giro d’Italia may see a real changing of the guard.
A number of older riders will fight off challenges from a pack of youngsters who have been biding their time and seem ready to pounce.
The start list is chock-a-block with contenders, and it is shaping as one of the most exciting Giros in recent memory (of course, it feels like we say that every year).
After Alberto Contador took the race out last year – getting lucky due to some weird last-day tactics from Mikel Landa and Fabio Aru’s Astana team – El Pistolero has decided to solely focus on the Tour de France in 2016.
That means we have no defending champion and, with Aru too focusing on the Tour, it is tough to identify a sole favourite.
In fact, it’s tough to even say which generation might take it out.
Let’s have a look at this year’s contenders for pink.
Vincenzo Nibali (Astana)
After winning the Tour in 2014 but failing to defend his title in France last year, the three-time Grand Tour and one-time Giro winner has decided to focus on his home race again, ceding the Tour to teammate Aru.
The course suits him down to the ground, with tough mountains, enough chances to be explosive, and a few hilly time trials. Besides, Nibali loves bad weather (crazy man), and the Giro often serves that up.
In saying all of that, he hasn’t had a win since the Tour of Oman in February, and recently missed the top 20 in typical lead-up race the Giro del Trentino.
Domenico Pozzovivo (Ag2r La Mondiale)
The Italian is having another crack at his home Grand Tour, where his highest overall finish is fifth place, and winning a stage back in 2012.
Still, he always seems to be there or thereabouts. Struggling for form though, it is tough to see him finishing high.
Rigoberto Uran (Cannondale)
Remember when Uran finished second at the Giro two years in a row? It seems like an eternity ago, but it was only 2013-14.
It was obvious last year that a move to the Etixx-QuickStep team was not working, as he fell out of contention at the Giro, and then only just made the top 50 at the Tour.
Thus far his move to Cannondale hasn’t translated to success, with his highest GC finish being tenth at the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya, and he hasn’t won a stage all year.
Pressure on, but if he is going to turn it around, this is the place to do it.
Alejandro Valverde (Movistar)
Valverde has been shifted onto the Giro this year – a race he has generally tried to avoid in pursuit of glory at the Tour de France and Vuelta a Espana.
He has been in some strong form though, winning both the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon and La Fleche Wallone races in the lead-up.
I have questions about his ability to go for three weeks as Father Time catches up with him, but he is a fighter and will finish somewhere up the top.
Ryder Hesejdal (Trek-Segafredo)
The best an optimistic Hesejdal fan could hope for is a stage win. Still, he has won this race before, and there is plenty of time-trialling involved – obviously his best discipline.
He hasn’t had a top-ten finish all year, but the crazy thing is he finished fifth at the Giro last year. If his experience and ability in the time trials shine through, he could finish up the top. Most likely though, he will struggle to scrape into the top ten.
Esteban Chavez (Orica GreenEDGE)
After finishing fifth place at last year’s Vuelta, ahead of some of the biggest names in professional cycling, the question is where he the young Colombian will finish. Time-trialling could be his downfall, but then two are done in the hills.
Should be in for a high finish, even if does have to use other teams’ support workers as his own.
Tom Dumoulin (Giant-Alpecin)
Dumoulin bounced onto the scene last year with a sixth-place finish at the Vuelta, having held the red jersey for much of the race, and winning one of the time-trial stages early on.
Time trialing is his strength, but he has been working hard on his climbing and is a good chance of holding on in the mountains.
He has been in strong form this year as well, with a fifth-place finish at Romandie, and just missing out on the top ten at Paris-Nice.
Still, if he doesn’t make big inroads on Stage 1, you could almost write him off for pink.
Mikel Landa (Team Sky)
Landa could, and some would argue should, have been part of the winning team at last year’s Giro. Riding with Astana, they looked to have Alberto Contador on the ropes during the final mountain stage, but some strange tactics left Aru almost two minutes behind.
Landa has a fresh start this year with Team Sky, and is supported by a strong team featuring Sebastien Henao, Christian Knees and Nicolas Roche.
He should be in for a good Giro if he can stay injury free.
Rafal Majka (Tinkoff)
Majka finished third at the 2015 Vuelta to emerge from the shadows of his team leader, Contador.
Majka has a strong squad behind him, but his form is worrying. He didn’t get to the end of the recent Tour of Romandie, and hasn’t had a win all season, only finishing in the top five on GC once.
Still, he could rise to the occasion – in fact, I expect him to.
Steven Kruijswijk (LottoNL – Jumbo)
At 28 years of age, it was a real toss-up as to whether he formed part of the young brigade or the old guard. He ended up in this section of the preview because it wasn’t that long ago he burst onto the scene, and he seems to have a lot of his career left.
He is aiming for a high finish this year – and there is every chance he will get one. He has finished in the top ten twice at the Giro, including seventh last year, and is in solid form, having just finished fifth at the Tour de Yorkshire.
1. Vincenzo Nibali
2. Mikel Landa
3. Esteban Chavez
4. Rafal Majka
5. Steven Kruijswijk
That wraps up the Giro d’Italia preview series. Don’t forget The Roar will have live coverage of every stage throughout the Giro.
Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde
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