North Melbourne sits atop the AFL ladder undefeated after the opening six rounds. Are they guaranteed a finals spot?
Yes they are, and history will support that argument, as well as the fact they’ve shown they can match it with all teams put before them this season – in a shoot-out or grind.
The important question however is: will they win the premiership? History points to no.
You need to go all the way back to 2003 to find a side that occupied first place after the opening six rounds of the season, who eventually went on to claim the ultimate prize. That team, of course, were the all-conquering Brisbane Lions who completed the rare three-peat, the first since Melbourne of 1955-57.
Since that history making September afternoon in 2003, every single side sitting on the highest perch of the ladder after six rounds has gone on to play finals that year (bar Essendon of 2013 who were removed from that finals series). This statistic obviously bodes well for North’s chances of being a part of the action come September.
Each year you already have quite a good picture of who is vying for the premiership after the first few of rounds, with a fairly strong idea after each side has played six games of football. So it strikes me as odd that the highest ranked team in the competition after this period of time has not gone on to win the holy grail in over a decade.
Of all those sides, there are four eventual runners-up among that unlucky group, along with another three preliminary finalists – a hurdle North Melbourne fans know all too well.
Does history suggest there’s a ‘Round 6 curse’? As if North Melbourne didn’t need another hoodoo to overcome after the misery of their preliminary final defeats in 2014 and 2015. The ‘footy gods’ have done crueller things in the past.
You actually have a better indicator of who will be premiers after only one round of football, with four eventual premiers sitting on top of the ladder after the first week of the season since 2003.
The Western Bulldogs sat in first place after Round 1 this year. Ironically, had they defeated North Melbourne last Friday night, they would be filling the top spot of the ladder, potentially putting them on the wrong side of history.
I wonder if North Melbourne’s fate is already sealed to another ‘close, but no cigar’ finish. No one knows if this ‘Round 6 curse’ will last another year, but it’s just one more thing stacked against the ‘Roos. They’ve been called too old and too slow, along with their supposed leaky defence.
If the ‘Round 6 curse’ is to be believed, then North Melbourne is at the mercy of the ‘footy gods’. As a North fan myself, I hope the gods are merciful and do not bestow the same destiny many clubs before us have endured for over a decade.
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