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The first round of the June internationals are almost upon us, and the outlook is bleak for nations other than New Zealand.
When considering the showings of the England national team in the Six Nations, as well as the comparative efforts of both the Australian and South African conferences so far in Super Rugby, it is hard to name a side that actually has a realistic shot at dethroning the All Blacks in 2016.
I’ve written a few articles on this topic during my years on The Roar and some might assume that it’s just another glorified rant about how good the New Zealanders are at rugby, but the truth is much simpler than that.
The truth is I am constantly dismayed by the relatively mediocre showings of attempted evolution from the second spot downward in the game we all love, live and breathe.
So I wait – running short on patience – for the day when rugby actually becomes competitive at the highest level and not just an all-out-war to see who the second best team in the world is.
If I were completely honest, I’d even say the battle for the not-so-coveted second spot in the world rankings is far more entertaining than witnessing the poor attempts at going for top spot. It just has a certain sort of flavour in its unpredictability.
Before I continue, it is important that I iterate two very important things. The first is I am in no way suggesting that watching the All Blacks is boring; they are spectacular in terms of entertainment, but they are egregious in terms of unpredictable results (and the fault there rests with the opposition).
If I want to see good rugby, I will watch New Zealand. If I want to see a constant battle for supremacy, a Wallabies, Springboks or England game will do me more justice.
The second point of importance is that I am not advocating the ridiculous notion that New Zealand needs to slow down or stagnate for the game to become more exciting – in fact, I hope they continue their pursuit of perfection. What I want is for the rest of the world to finally get up and decide to do the same, and that doesn’t mean just stumbling along, muttering lines of “execution” or “attempt to give the ball some air”.
Perfecting the execution of a flawed tactic will not record competitive head-to-head win rates against New Zealand; it will only make you look pretty while losing as both England and South Africa will show you. Also, playing running rugby will not automatically make you equal to the men in black; the Wallabies and Pumas of 2015 are sufficient evidence of that (as are the Lions who were obliterated against the Hurricanes last weekend).
There is an annoying belief that one must play like the All Blacks to beat the All Blacks. I do not agree with this belief for two main reasons. The first is you will never beat them by playing like them, because the style of rugby they play is a reflection of their entire culture – a culture that has been moulded and redefined for nigh on a hundred years.
The second point is that rugby is a game which allows for so much diversity and unique play. If everyone was to play exactly the same, then where would the excitement be?
Still, here is something to ponder on the first point. Can we really just assume that the Kiwis wouldn’t know how to counteract their own style? Are they not the creators of that particular style of rugby? And, most importantly, do they not play against their own style numerously on a yearly basis whenever the Crusaders face the Blues or the Chiefs tackle the Hurricanes?
My belief (and I could be wrong) is they are so formidable because they know exactly where they stand in all facets of their play. I believe that playing Super Rugby provides them with the perfect opportunity to tune and align their own style’s strengths and frailties.
The same concept applies to South Africa. Few teams in the world can beat South Africa consistently by using the same power, forward-orientated that they themselves employ – hence the winning records against all northern hemisphere opposition. South African teams are accustomed to those types of tactics because they practice it against one another in Super Rugby and in the Currie Cup. Instead, they falter against a style that is opaque to them, like wide, open, running rugby.
Take this into account. New Zealand have a massive advantage against the Springboks in recent years, and they are an attacking side. Australia hold the most respectable record against South Africa of any other team excluding the All Blacks, and they play open rugby. Argentina could never beat South Africa until they adopted a more enterprising brand. Japan defeated the Springboks by exploiting space, not by mauling them into submission.
Yet neither Australia, Argentina or Japan can beat the All Blacks consistently (or at all) with running rugby.
It is my observation that attempting to play like the All Blacks will never bring you closer to consistently beating them. Instead, the rest of the world should carve out their own path and create their own brand of rugby; evolve their own play. As with anything in the world, it is okay to draw inspiration from something that is successful, but is never honourable to completely try to imitate it.
Another tendency in rugby circles is the overlying thought that “Rugby was meant to be played like New Zealand plays it.”
I must have missed the memo on this. Rugby is a game of intricacies, of odds and evens, a game that is the extension of the human spirit. It’s all about expression. There is no “right” way to play it. You play it like you want to play it, the way you feel comfortable playing it.
Critics around the world can bemoan Ireland kicking inordinate amounts of up-and-unders, South Africa using one-off runners, Australia playing an openside at eight and England mauling until kingdom come, but it will never be the “wrong” way to play rugby.
The rugby world does not need ten teams playing All Black-style rugby and teams do not need to play like the All Blacks to beat them.
That also doesn’t mean the Springboks – or even England – for example, should keep playing the way they are currently playing. They must take what they’re good at, look at why it isn’t working, and add aspects to it that could compensate for their flaws. There is absolutely no need for complete reconstruction; only evolution.
Both England and the Springboks can add New Zealand-like interplay to their game plan without abandoning or sacrificing their traditional strengths. Nothing stops you from playing a power game, a tactical kicking game and a vast passing game in a single match.
That is what I would like to see from all teams. Take what you’re good at and add aspects that could nullify what is currently detrimental. This requires smart and innovative coaching.
New Zealand did this in 2011 by bringing in a more disciplined kicking game and improvement in the aerial battle for the ball. It did not dictate the way they played – they are still predominantly a wide-running team – but they added what was necessary to negate a weakness in their game.
South Africa must do the same. Keep your core game the traditional strength, but bring unpredictability by merging it with aspects that may perhaps be foreign at first that could benefit the overall performance.
We see plenty of good players in every team in the world. Names like Israel Folau, George North, Johnathan Sexton, Damian de Allende, Louis Picamoles, Augustine Creevy, Sergio Parisse and Billy Vunipola are all exceptional players who could stand up and match any player New Zealand could throw at them. I am convinced talent is not a problem.
The problem is we almost never see exceptional coaching anywhere but from New Zealand. If the world is to catch up to New Zealand it won’t be a matter of copying the All Black game or “playing the game the right way;” it will be a matter of a rugby nation standing up and deciding they want to take their game forward and to the next level.
Perhaps I am being too negative before I have been premitted the chance to be proven wrong. I can only say that England’s Six Nations campaign and the current Super Rugby competition have done little to convince me there will be a different outcome in 2016.
I know full well that perhaps I should give the rugby world a little more time after the 2015 World Cup cycle to prove me wrong and then judge from there.
I do not want New Zealand rugby to fall. I only want the rest of the rugby world to finally up the ante and provide a true challenge for the top dog status.
How sad it is to see number two become the main event.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.