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Okay, so we all know the Hawks are fortunate to be 4-2; apart from the grand final replay, they haven’t been very good.
The demolition on the weekend at the hands of the Giants finally brought this to the attention of the media. So what’s the problem?
Most commentators are talking about contested footy, given the stats and the fact the Hawks barely touched the Sherrin at Spotless last week. But, over their period of sustained success, Hawthorn have never been great at clearances or contested ball. They’ve been good, but it’s not a core competency of this team.
What the Hawks did was use elite skills and structure to punish teams on the counterattack. They would set up in such a way that their opponents would be allowed to get the ball first, but would immediately be under pressure and hand it over.
The Hawks like to set up with fewer inside players at the ruck contest and more skilled players outside the contest, to cut off short clearances and create a sense of pressure on opposition midfielders (often resulting in a quickly hacked kick straight to a loose Hawthorn player).
So why has this stopped working?
Firstly, Alastair Clarkson teams have relied on elite users in the backline to set up forward movements. But in 2016, Matt Suckling is gone and Brian Lake’s retirement has meant Josh Gibson is back to playing as a key defender rather than a rebounder.
With Taylor Duryea’s form way off early and Shaun Burgoyne sucked into the middle, Grant Birchall is fighting a lone battle.
In case you ask, Frawley and Stratton are excellent players having good years, but they’re not the setup men.
With injury and poor form hitting the few inside midfielders they have aside from Sam Mitchell, Clarkson is forced to push his best players from other zones into the centre square. Luke Breust, Paul Puopolo and Cyril Rioli are dangerous in the forward line, not the centre, and we’re seeing those guys in the middle more often this year.
Burgoyne also finds himself further afield more often to cover up holes, when his skills are needed down back.
Thirdly; when the Hawks manage to get the ball, delivery further afield hasn’t been great. The outside mids have been ordinary or hurt.
The lack of scoring isn’t really the forward line’s fault – although Jack Gunston hasn’t been stellar, he’s converted from few opportunities, while James Sicily and the resting ruckman have provided some marking power. With Rioli and Breust in the middle, the forward line starts looking a little thin and too easy to escape.
I don’t want to present problems without a solution. So what should the Hawks do?
Jarryd Roughead will help. He’s a high-quality forward and can legitimately offer something in the centre square. But that’s not rocket surgery.
The Hawks need to add another true key backman not named Ryan Shoenmakers. This might be Tim O’Brien, or it might be someone else. Gibson needs his freedom back.
Hawthorn need to try some midfielders new to find someone in form. This definitely means Jonathan O’Rourke and might mean a couple more from a strong Box Hill side. If Jordan Lewis has to spend time elsewhere to find his touch, give it a try.
The end is not quite nigh. Looking at the next five games, it’s more likely that not that the Hawks will go to 8-3, which is not exactly cause for panic. There’s still time to make “Fourthorn” a reality.
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