The Warrnambool carnival, as it always does, provided some spirited racing through the week, having commendably carved out an old-school niche on the calendar.
That means the South Australian and Queensland carnivals are also ramping up, and Morphetville hosts two Group 1s on Saturday, the Robert Sangster Stakes for the sprinting mares and the Australasian Oaks for the staying fillies.
The Sangster is the feature race of the day, and it’s attracted a capacity 20-horse field with plenty of smart fillies and mares among them.
Hometown filly Don’t Doubt Mamma heads the market in an extremely open betting race, coming in with winning form after taking out the Redelva Stakes in fine style a fortnight ago, off the back of a short but successful Melbourne campaign. More renowned over a bit further than the 1200m of this race, she’ll get back from a wide barrier and be strong late.
Petits Filou has been impressive in lesser grades but has failed in her two attempts against A-grade opposition, once in the Moir Stakes behind the likes of Buffering, and last start in the Arrowfield behind fellow three-year-olds Japonisme and Counterattack. A few gear changes may help her bounce back.
Badawiya is another filly, and might just be the most talented horse in the race. When she puts it all together, she tends to leave the rest of her age group in her wake. Very good off a freshen or a break, the month between runs is in her favour, and she represents value at the $13 mark if she sprints as well as she can.
Super Cash is the other filly in the field, an honest horse with form around Don’t Doubt Mamma and Petits Filou, but she doesn’t quite have the talent to find the line first in this sort of field.
Of the more seasoned mares, Griante is the best credentialled, always Group 1 competitive against the boys, and winner of the Galaxy up in Sydney earlier this prep. Not many can find bad luck like her, and if Craig Williams can keep her out of trouble from gate three she’s sure to be in the finish.
Sheidel is a former Perth mare that took a few runs to break through for the Hayes and Dabernig training combo, and may be ready to go on with it now. Stablemate Miss Promiscuity chased home Malaguerra first-up and has posted back-to-back wins since. She’s always competitive.
Precious Gem has taken on the boys at her first two runs this prep, just edged out in the Hareeba Stakes before winning the Anniversary Vase second-up. The 1200 metres may be too short for her though. Scarlett Billows and I Love It are also dropping back from winning 1400-metre performances. The former was good in a decent William Reid before that, while the latter is resuming and does have to bridge a gap in class.
Like so many mares in this race, Sultry Feeling has different types of form against several of her competitors, and she could well be good enough at her pet distance.
Sabatini always has a case, and it’s a smart move by connections to hit this second-up off a freshen after a strong first-up run behind Miss Promiscuity. Tycoon Tara was third there and meets them both better at the weights here. She was caught wide last start, so can be forgiven, and has always looked a type that could win a good race.
Tuscan Sling has beaten Reldas and Azkadellia in recent times, which is some of the best form around, and she is outstanding value if she brings her best. Vezalay almost always runs well, and beat some of this field in the spring, and has been good up in Sydney. Her record at 1200m or beyond (8: 0-0-2) as against 1000m-1100m (5: 3-1-0) tells us all we need to know though.
Private Secretary will be powering home late, and is every chance to get there off a genuine speed. Former Kiwi Miss Seton Sands hasn’t been shown much respect by the market, but can get a nice run and like every horse in the field can pop up in the first four. Runway Star is still improving, and the Stokes/Tourneur combo should always be taken seriously.
Pre-race, you could throw a blanket over a dozen of these and still miss the winner, and that usually means there’s value to be had. You could pour over the form for a day and be no closer to the winner, or you could throw a dart at the board and hit it in one.
Selections
1. Badawiya
2. Tycoon Tara
3. Griante
4. Private Secretary
The Australasian Oaks also looks a tough race to crack, with a number of potential chances.
Silent Sedition has looked a nice fit for this race since her impressive maiden win to kick off her prep, after a series of eye-catching performances against the tempo back in spring. She’s learnt to race forward, and has the knack of finding the box seat, which she should again from barrier seven. She ticks a lot of boxes.
C’est Beau La Vie was second behind Silent Sedition last start in the Auraria Stakes, leading them along in a race where the on-speed runners were most advantaged. She beat a good one in Sailing By at the start before, so her credentials are sound. Those two beat the rest comfortably, and it would surprise to see others from that race turn the tables.
Bengal Cat beat Silent Sedition on merit over a mile at Sandown two starts back, and went on with it last start. The form behind her is outstanding, and she’ll make her own luck if drawing the car park doesn’t bring her unstuck in the early stages.
You can always count on Mick Kent for an unusual prep with his young stayers, and he hasn’t disappointed here with the undefeated Abbey Marie. Debut in a 1300-metre maiden, a month into a 1440-metre benchmark 70, and two weeks into a 2000-metre Group 1 at her third start. His horses invariably run well though.
Two fillies are representing Perth, following in the footsteps of Delicacy for Grant Williams last season. Arcadia Dream won the WA Derby after running the quinella behind First Impressions in the Oaks, and is the better horse than her stablemate, although there isn’t often a lot between them.
Pasadena Girl hasn’t won since her Champagne Stakes win as a two-year-old, and has progressively got worse in some ways. You’d be taking her on trust, but there is a case there. Believe is also coming down from Sydney, off a placing at big odds in the ATC Oaks. A lot is being asked of her in her first prep.
Sacred Eye isn’t the horse we saw over the first four starts of her career, which saw a second to Badawiya in the Edward Manifold, and a dominant win in the Caulfield Classic. Perhaps she hasn’t recovered from the 2500 metres of the VRC Oaks on a heavy track at start five. Asinara showed a bit up in Sydney and can be competitive.
Selections
1. Silent Sedition
2. Bengal Cat
3. Abbey Marie
4. Arcadia Dream
Without a Fight completed the rare Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double on Tuesday as star jockey Mark Zahra went back-to-back in the big one after…
The race that stops the nation is upon us again. Every horse in the Melbourne Cup has reasons they can win, and reasons they…
Those who want to have a really big collect on Australia’s greatest race, without risking too much, have to look at the exotic bets.
While most of the attention is on Ciaron Maher and David Eustace's Gold Trip, there's no reason why stablemate Future History cannot upstage him.
Champion jockey Damien Oliver is quietly confident his Melbourne Cup mount Alenquer will be passed fit to give him a farewell ride in the…
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s never anything less than exciting. The Cup itself will of course be full of drama and…
