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Whether you believe in low taxing, small government or big ticket infrastructure and public schools, we are all getting used to the idea of polls right now.
Welcome to the second 2016 Super Rugby power poll (I called my first one before Malcolm called his, for the record). This edition will rank of the competition based on the hopes, dreams and ceiling of the 18 teams over the remaining rounds.
Reaching for the stars
Forgive me if you think I’m being a little simplistic, but at this point if we were playing an old-school Super Rugby round robin competition with a smaller play-offs, these four New Zealand teams would play the semi-finals.
Three of those four teams lead the competition in tries scored. All four are inside the top five for line breaks and metres gained, and they occupy four of the top six for offloads.
These are the sides leading the way in terms of style and execution in all areas of the game. And they’ve been rewarded with the top four in competition points on the log.
The Crusaders have intelligently built a game around a forward pack that kills the set piece and some tactical kicking from a better-than-you’d-think Richie Mo’unga. Added to that is just enough willingness to spread the ball when it’s on, or counter-attack, to keep the opposition guessing. They’ll be looking to refine that balance and ability to transition from one mode to another during the run home to the finals.
I’ve ranked the Highlanders above the Chiefs because of their win on the weekend. Truth is, the Highlanders are a less flashy team than we think and have had bumps this year, but they’re extremely tactical and their attack is slowly starting to find form. They are undervalued five points behind the Crusaders and Chiefs.
That said – the Chiefs are a balltearer of a rugby team when they hit full stride. What they need is the ability to hold teams to 20 points or less more often. They were only able to do that against the Force this year. Their loss to the Highlanders, where they were held to 13, despite being a strong attacking outfit, exemplified the need to be able to rebuff more clear scoring chances. Anyone remember last year’s grand final? The Highlanders and Hurricanes were heroic in defence.
Speaking of the Hurricanes, I’m now sure they aren’t quite the same team as last year. Departed experience has hurt internally, I’d guess. But there’s something of an intensity drop off as well. They play great rugby, but the feeling the Hurricanes are always on the hunt isn’t as strong as last year.
Perhaps that’ll come when the finals do – it might be they’re just waiting to enact revenge and aren’t taking the regular season as seriously.
Its also easy to forget the Hurricanes false started this year and lost their first two matches. Since then they’re six from eight – not a bad two month stretch.
If this were a fair game, we’d just put these four into a playoff bracket to find out the best team this year. But it’s not, so we’ll be adding four other teams into the mix and these four will continue to duke it out for home ground seeding through the finals.
Hoping for Republic hospitality
All four of these teams rank above the best Australian team on the log now. I think it’s fairly safe to say the South African sides aren’t as good as the New Zealand teams and they’ve been getting a leg up playing the Jaguares, Kings and Sunwolves in particular. However, the opportunity to put on some good old fashioned South African hospitality for visiting teams in the finals is available.
Right now the Stormers and Bulls are separated by the Lions because only one can win the Africa 1 conference and the Stormers hold a narrow lead there – basically on bonus points.
My hypothesis is the lowest ranked wildcard in the competition will be the third South African team, which will be sent to be slaughtered by the Crusaders or someone. That will leave the top ranked South African team with a chance to host the fourth best Kiwi outfit in a one off knockout match on the back of 24 hours-plus of travel. A tasty reward.
All four of these teams are still in with a sniff. The Sharks are the lowest placed of the lot because they’ve already played 10 matches, on top of being three points back from the Stormers. While the Lions have a good record against South Africa group teams this year, and play most of their remaining matches against those sides running home.
The Bulls must win their round 13 clash against the Stormers because the men from Cape Town play Sunwolves, Cheetahs, Rebels, Force and Kings in their other matches – very winnable games.
Hanging on for one extra game
At the moment the Brumbies narrowly lead the Australian conference, but whoever “wins” is currently staring down of being the being the fourth seeded winner and inviting the fifth seed (first wildcard) New Zealand team – which will probably be the second highest points scorer on the log – for a pre-semi final training run.
And, to be clear, the first and second places Australian team is now six points behind the fourth New Zealand team. Barring Donald Trump nuking Wellington or Otago, there isn’t going to be a second Australian team in the finals.
So, which team will we all hopefully cheer for only to be staring down the barrel of a 20 point deficit by half time?
The Brumbies are in pole position for that dubious honour right now. Having played 10 matches already, the match up against the Rebels this week is “juuuuge for them. Really important.” Woah? (Has The Hair invaded this column? Watch for those nukes, he thinks they are toys.) The Brumbies are this year’s “professional” team – they aren’t particularly good at one thing, but they do enough things well to be slick across the park and not give away games too often. And they have David Pocock. That should be enough to get them through a fairly easy slate home in first and then get beaten by 30 in Canberra in a quarterfinal.
The Waratahs have an extra bye to come, but also have the harder run home now. Only their match up against the Sunwolves is a clear win from here on out. It’ll be a hard slog, and I think stronger and/or more physical forward packs will get the better of them.
If the Rebels beat the Brumbies this week, they are in the drivers’ seat! And the whole country will be egging them on at that point. The only problem then is the Chiefs, Stormers and Crusaders make up four of their final five matches. I can’t see them eking out enough points.
Crashing the party
The Blues play the Hurricanes, Brumbies and Waratahs in the final three rounds once the Test window is done with. I can see a fast-finishing Blues team, playing like they have nothing to lose, make life hell for one or two of those teams. Just when someone is partying because they can wrap up a finals spot, the Blue will gate crash. Hard.
The uncomfortable thing to watch is whether the Blues, fifth in the New Zealand conference, end up with more competition points than the top Australian side. They’re tied at the moment. Gulp.
Getting ready for next year
The Jaguares and Sunwolves have learned a lot this year already.
The Jaguares have learned that you need to be able to back up your attacking intent. It takes skills to continue to play at high speed, and composure to know when to push the pass and when to go to ground. They haven’t nailed that yet, but the pieces are there for next year.
I think the June Test window will be good for the Sunwolves. Many of their players will get to play against the Asian teams in their cup competition and that experience will undoubtedly show them how far they’ve come this year and matches against Canada and Scotland will give them a big hit out before a big Super Rugby finish. Despite striving admirably the whole way, the Sunwolves have worn out as the matches against strong opponents piled up. Next year it isn’t impossible to see some of their early close calls turning into wins.
I include the Cheetahs here because they aren’t in the category of the Kings in South Africa. They should be able to scout and retain talent to make a better fist of 2017. However, players being stretched across more teams might leave South Africa with two poor teams for a number of years until the pool of talent catches up. Like Australia…
Making sure you’ve hit rock bottom
Both of these teams need to sort out their coaching situation and use the rest of the season to find out which players are worth building around for the future.
No more holding onto traces of the past, for either team. 2016 has to be the year they look back on as rock bottom in terms of playing stock, coaching, organisational leadership and results.
Reaching up for rock bottom
For and against is minus-248 and counting. They’ve almost doubled the Force woeful output in that regard.
Rock bottom for the Kings was probably following up their one victory over the Sunwolves with loses of 32, 35, 46 and 16 points. I don’t even know where to start. Will the players they used this year be better off for the experience? Probably. Will they even get to keep the players that showed they belong at this level? Maybe not. Is there a point to the Kings? Probably not.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.