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BTC Cup 2016: Field, odds and analysis

The famous main grandstand at Doomben. (Photo: Wiki Commons)
Roar Guru
11th May, 2016
2

Race 7 at Doomben on Saturday (4.06pm AEST) is the BTC Cup run over a distance of 1200m.

It is a key lead up to the more illustrious Doomben 10000 run in 2 weeks time. Like that race it has Group 1 status (and is a Weight For Age race), though it was only awarded it in 2006.

Oddly, since it did get that promotion there have been many longshot results, and it’s worthiness as a Group 1 race has been questioned on a few occasions. In the last seven years Black Caviar is the only horse to have won the race at odds of less than $7.50, and five of those editions have been won by double figure chances. That is something to keep in mind whilst doing the form for this year. Below are the last 13 winners of the race followed by it’s age, gender, barrier draw and starting odds;

• 2015 HOT SNITZEL 6G (2) $26
• 2014 FAMOUS SEAMUS 5g (4) $21
• 2013 YOUR SONG 3c (5) $12
• 2012 SEA SIREN 3f (5) $7.50
• 2011 BLACK CAVIAR 4m (4) $1.05
• 2010 ALBERT THE FAT 5g (3) $21
• 2009 DUPORTH 3c (6) $13
• 2008 APACHE CAT 5g (4) $1.70
• 2007 BENTLEY BISCUIT 5g (5) $3.25
• 2006 GEE I JANE 5m (1) $12
• 2005 SPARK OF LIFE 4g (13) $3.75
• 2004 THORN PARK 4h (6) $4.50
• 2003 FALVELON 6h (2) $3

Relevant statistics – Weighted and totalled in the table below;

A) 11/13 winners aged 3 to 5 (3 points)
B) 12/13 started from barriers 1-6 (2 points)
8/13 “ “ “ 4-6 (+ 1points)
C) 10/13 finished in the placings last start (2 Points)
D) 13/13 raced in a Group race last start. (2 points)
8/13 raced in Group 1 race last start. ( + 1 point)
E) 9/13 had 28 days or more between runs. (2 Points)
F) 9/13 raced in first 5 early stages of the race. (2 points)
G) 11/13 started in an 1100m or 1200m race last start. (2 points)
H) 9/13 had their last start in Sydney. (1 Point)

HORSE A B C D E F G H TOTAL
1. Delectation 3 3 2 2 1 11
2. Fell Swoop 3 2 2 2 2 11
3.Stratum Star 3 3 2 2 10
4. Dothraki 3 2 3 2 2 2 1 15
5. Sacred Star 2 2 2 2 8
6. Artlee 3 3 2 2 2 12
7. Charlie Boy 3 3 2 3 2 1 14
8. Malaguerra 3 3 2 2 1 11
9. Target In Sight 2 2 2 1 7
10. Liberation 3 3 2 2 10
11. Japonisme 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 16
12. Counterattack 3 2 2 2 2 1 12
13. Two Blue 2 2 2 1 7
14. Echo Gal 3 2 2 7

Track Condition:
At the time of writing the surface is rated as a Good 4 and there seems little chance of any deterioration given the glorious weather South East Queensland is experiencing at the moment. The track should only firm further in the next 48 hours.

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Race Tempo:
There should be good speed in this race with Two Blue and perhaps Stratum Star attempting to lead. Fell Swoop will probably go forward to seek cover from a wide barrier early, which is perhaps the case for Malguerra also. Japonisme will be right behind the leaders whilst Dothraki should hold a forward position from barrier 1. Both Charlie Boy and Echo Gal have been missing the start of late but if the jump cleanly here they both could add speed to the race. Liberation is another who could race handy so the backmarkers should get their chance providing there is no leader bias at a Doomben track that so often does suit those up on the pace and nearer the rails.

Analysis:
The average winning price for the period shown is $9.98 which is way too high for your typical Weight For Age race. Over the last seven years it balloons out to $15.65 (Would be worse but for Black Caviar), so it’s clear it doesn’t run to script too often for punters, who base their selection on the best rated and in form horses coming into the race. And looking at the scores above it’s quite clear that a few of the shorter priced runners might be struggling to make an impact, given Historical stats, whereas one or two lower rated, but capable gallopers, have a few things in their favour.

JAPONISME has the highest score which is testament to this three year old’s consistency and bombproof racing style. He wins and places in a lot of races because he if of high quality and can race on the speed. If there is a small weakness it is his record on Good tracks which reads 1-5/7, compared to his 5-0/7 on wet tracks. He has had 14 starts in 14 months since his career started, so it’s just possible he might be looking for a break. Don’t count on that too much though, given the steely resolve he possesses, and the likelihood he will get the run of the race from barrier 3.

DOTHRAKI looks the value horse of the race and he looks the archetypal type of winner in recent times. Last year I mentioned his stablemate Hot Snitzel as being way over the odds at $34, and he duly saluted from barrier 2. This horse has very similar credentials, and comes out of barrier 2. He gave 3.5kg away to Fell Swoop three starts ago and finished only 2.4 lengths astern. He beat the same horse home in the Galaxy two ago back conceding him 2.5kg. This time they are at level weights and he is probably going to start four or five times the price of that horse. Go figure! Back in November he gave Delectation 1kg and beat him home down the straight at Flemington (Stablemate Hot Snitzel finished just in front of him). Back in October last year he won the City Tatts Lighting at Randwick, beating Artlee in the process and conceding him 5kg. Artlee is half his price here?

From barrier 1 he should get a lovely run in the race. A double figure price is overs and there is no problem in obtaining that.

CHARLIE BOY is also from the same stable as Dothraki (Peter and Paul Snowden) and he had a great Winter in Queensland last year, winning the Group 3 BRC Sprint and finishing a close second in the Group 1 Doomben 10000. Both were at 1350m and which looks his ideal distance. This represents his third run in this preparation and his best form appears to be first and second up, but the stable did mention this week that he is a horse who races best on the fresh side, hence the longer than normal gap between his last two runs, and the month break coming into this. His sectionals were excellent last start after he missed the start and got well back, and if he can jump better in this race he should really make his presence felt at a double figure quote, even though it isn’t his best distance.

COUNTERATTACK was possibly a bit unlucky not to topple Japonisme last start with the Blinkers Back On. Like his Group 1 winning siblings Red Tracer and Shellscrape he should relish the month break between runs, and just needs a bit of luck from an awkward barrier to be competitive. That seems to be the major obstacle for him, so the faster they go up front the better.

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SACRED STAR from New Zealand doesn’t score well historically, but can’t be underestimated on his Group winning form in New Zealand. Things just didn’t go to plan for him in this carnival last year (injury concerns), which is worth keeping in mind when assessing his chances. He is being totally ignored in the betting which is great for those punters who recognise value. He likes dry tracks and will get one here. The last time he got one at 1200m was first up at Trentham in January 2015. He annihilated a Group 1 field that day and ran 1.07.01 which is low flying in Australian terms (though not totally uncommon at Trentham). Like Hot Snitzel last year he is $34 in early Fixed Odds markets and shouldn’t be. A middle barrier and a likely solid speed will give him his chance

Both Fell Swoop and Artlee are impossible to knock on form and career statistics, but the former needs a bit of luck from barrier 10, and the latter just might prefer a 1350-1400m race to win in this class. The Stradroke handicap looks a great race for him, as it does for Malaguerra who should be forgiven his last run in the All Aged Stakes because he had no luck at all. Delectation has a Tongue Tie On first time which could produce siginificant improvement in him.

The rest of the field either looks outclassed or have the job ahead from wide barriers at this distance.

Conclusion and Bet Advice;

At the value I like the look of Dothraki because he should get the right run from an ideal barrier from right up on the pace. My top four in order;

1. DOTHRAKI
2. Japonisme
3. Charlie Boy
4. Sacred Star

I don’t hold out too much hope of getting that First 4, but some each way investments on Dothraki (Full Stake), Charlie Boy, and Scared Star (both Half Stake) will hopefully bear fruit. All three are significant overs in my opinion.

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