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Preston's previews: NRL Round 10

11th May, 2016
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There is plenty of pressure on Luke Brooks this season - and on the Tigers. (Digital Image by Robb Cox ©nrlphotos.com)
Roar Guru
11th May, 2016
2
1050 Reads

After a weeks break for the rep round – how good were the Tests? – it’s back to NRL action for Round 10.

A clear picture has begun to form as to which teams we can expect to see contesting the 2016 finals series.

Last week’s tips – 5/8, running tip total 44/72 (4.9/8 per week).

Dragons versus Raiders

With morale boosting wins in Round 7 and 8 many expected the Dragons to topple an inconsistent Warriors side that dumped six first graders for their Round 9 clash with the Red V. Instead, the Dragons attempting to gain the competitions most frustrating team trophy from the Warriors by going down 26-10.

It was a poor performance and while they welcome back Tim Lafai and Joel Thompson, stand out Jack De Bellin will be missing for this clash with Canberra.

The Raiders were met with stiff opposition in Round 9 against the Panthers, eventually falling short of the two points due to a field goal from Peter Wallace. By and large though the green machine are in good form.

They have named the same 17 that lost in Bathurst trusting that they will defeat the Dragons, a team they have lost to in their last three match ups.

NRL Round 10:
» NRL Thursday Night Forecast: Dragons vs Raiders
» Round preview Part 1
» Round preview Part 2
» Nathan Peats the sacrificial Eel as points matter to Parra

Tip: Raiders 1-12

Eels versus Souths

The Eels have endured one of the worst weeks in the club’s history. They have been docked 12 points, fined a million dollars and are now prohibited from acquiring any further points until they become salary cap compliant.

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To make matters worse their star play maker Kieran Foran remains M.I.A with personal problems. That being said nothing quite galvanises a team like a thrashing the previous week or a mountain of adversity – and the Eels have this in spades.

While I fail to see how they will become compliant in the next three days and thus will not be playing for points this match they have plenty of pride, passion and anger to play with and will be keen to rip into the Bunnies.

Souths are a myth and Greg Inglis the unicorn. I don’t often make statements as brash as that but this team seriously annoys me. I view Souths as the competition’s bully team.

Their squad contains plenty of arrogant personalities who are happy to bash smaller forward packs and soak up the media attention when they are travelling well but when everything is not smooth sailing they struggle to compete and dig their heels in.

Round 9 against the Tigers was a perfect example. The Tigers were missing captain Aaron Woods, form prop Tim Grant, lost playmaker Mitchell Moses in the warm up and star player James Tedesco at half time. On top of this they were gifted two very average tries off the back of nothing kicks to find themselves within striking distance for much of the match.

However, with a full compliment of players produced absolutely nothing and never looked like winning. Much like a bully, when confronted, they fold.

Inglis has been playing at Instrust Super Premiership standard in 2016 and were it not for his legacy and reputation would find himself playing reserve grade. I am predicting he will offer an improved showing at five-eighth given the reduced running and the team will benefit from the fresh enthusiasm of Alex Johnston.

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This should see a vast improvement overall from the team but it will be another Round before they reap the dividends.

Tip: Eels 1-12

Panthers versus Warriors
This is a massive danger game for the Panthers. Form dictates they should win this clash having played for the full 80 in every match this season. But by the same token, Penrith are still yet to record back-to-back victories after nine Rounds and four wins.

The concerning part? They’re coming off a win and if you’re into superstitions, the law of averages, maths and whatever else the football gods are suggesting it’s time the mountain men lost again.

With all that said, this is a danger game for the Panthers predominantly due to the Warriors being bolstered by the additions of Ben Matulino, Bodene Thompson, Thomas Leuluai and Tui Lolohea, four of the Warriors best players. On paper it’s a Warriors victory. On paper it’s a home match for the Panthers but this one will actually occur at AMI Park in New Zealand.

This is an absolute toss of the coin but I’m going to back Penrith to grab their first back to back victory of the season.

Tip: Panthers 1-12

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Storm versus Cowboys
Both teams have tremendous momentum. The Storm have scored 80 points to nil in their last two games, Cooper Cronk has hit form and rookie winger Suliasi Vunivalu is scoring for fun. The Cowboys have now won five on the trot and now find themselves on top of the ladder.

Despite the Storm being listed as the home team this match will take place at Suncorp Stadium as part of a double-header blockbuster that will also see the Sea Eagles take on the Broncos. The Cowboys have won five of their last eight against the Storm.

This should be the match of the round and could go down to the wire.

Tip: Cowboys 1-12

Knights versus Sharks
I won’t bore you with my usual ‘this is the worst roster I’ve seen since Souths’ readmission in the early 2000s’ discussion, but it is hard to argue any different. The Knights have been thumped by (at the time) the last placed Roosters 38-0. They were never in that game and it looked worse and worse the longer it went.

Their home crowd will buoy the Knights but I can see their forwards getting trampled and out powered by a strong, high-energy Cronulla pack.

The Sharks completely deserve their fourth place standing after nine rounds. They have been tremendous and have been one of the real joys to watch this season. This should be like clock work for the Sharkies despite Newcastle enjoying seven wins from their last ten starts against the boys from the Shire.

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Tip: Sharks 13+

Sea Eagles versus Broncos

Manly are missing a raft of players including the talismanic Brett Stewart and have won just one of their past three matches, that win coming against the dismal Knights. Form wise they are in no shape to defeat the Broncos.

The Broncos finally found a hiccup in the form of the Sharks, a poor start being punished despite a fast finish. That said this is a serious football team who featured a crazy 8 internationals during the NZ v Australia test match. The class of this roster coupled with their form in season 2016 will see them get the points in comfortable fashion.

Tip: Broncos 13+

Tigers versus Bulldogs
This game is a real head scratcher. It shouldn’t be, but it is. The Tigers were courageous against Souths, despite missing a raft of players and losing Tedesco midway through the match they still managed to come away from ANZ with a victory.

This week they enjoy a huge number of inclusions, skipper Aaron Woods returns alongside front row partner Tim Grant, Mitchell Moses returns to five eighth and Elijiah Taylor is a chance to debut for the club as 18th man. Those are all good signs.

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This is of course offset by the injury to James Tedesco, while that is a significant blow, anybody who has been keeping an eye on the Intrust Super Premiership will know that his replacement, Justin Hunt, has been playing superb football. I happened to attend the Wests Tigers versus North Sydney Bears reserve grade match two weeks ago in Moss Vale and Hunt was a stand out in a tremendous team performance for the Tigers.

He is a player in a similar mould to that of Tedesco with excellent support play and great hands.

The Dogs have been following in Penrith’s footsteps. Since Round 3 they have endured the exact same loss, win and repeat formula. By that rationale Round 10 should mean victory for the Dogs, but, they are not firing.

Despite a gluttony of possession against the Eels in Round 9 they simply could not find a way to win the game. Michael Lichaa continues to play an uninspiring distributor role from dummy half and they will be missing the reliable Will Hopoate for this game for religious reasons.

Perhaps against my better judgement I think the Tigers can cause an upset here, if they can hold their own against the Dogs forward pack they have every chance of getting the two points in a tight contest.

Tip: Tigers 1-12

Titans versus Roosters
The Titans are officially in a rut having lost their last five games in a row. My biggest problem with the Titans lies in the continued selection of William Zillman. I have been of the firm belief now for years that Zillman is a quintessential solid player, a fringe first grader who won’t necessarily let you down, but certainly will not win you a match.

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Why am I picking on Zillman specifically? Because his continued selection means that two superior fullbacks are forced to shift to other positions and resultantly become less involved in a team which desperately needs some star power, something which a pace lacking, pass lacking, support lacking Zillman does not offer.

Josh Hoffman despite being a good centre receives next to no ball playing in this position. That’s fine, I can live with him remaining here. But for the exceptional David Mead to have to accommodate Zillman is ludicrous.

With Mead at fullback in 2016 the Titans enjoyed a 3-2 start to the season with their only loses coming against the Storm (3rd, 7-2) and the Broncos (second, 7-2). Since Zillman’s return (and the accompanying backline shuffle) the Titans have lost four straight with statistics showing a stark contrast.

Without Zillman: Average points per game scored: 21.2, average conceded: 16.4
With Zillman: Average points per game scored: 13.5, average conceded: 25.8

The Titans suffered a similar decline last season when Zillman was reintroduced at fullback, David Mead earnt a country jersey for the position before this occurred.

Neil Henry needs to make the tough decision and force Zillman either to the centres, wings or the Queensland Cup.

As for the Roosters, their tail feathers should well and truly be up after hammering the Knights and welcoming key personnel in the form of Mitchel Pearce and Jared Warea Hargraves back into the team. Interestingly the Roosters have won their last ten matches when both Pearce and JWH have played.

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Latrell Mitchell is constantly improving and I believe should have been rewarded for his strong recent showings with country jersey instead of Kane Linnett who looked completely out of place on the wing.

This match will help the Roosters get on a roll.

Tip: Roosters 13+

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