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On upside alone, Ben Simmons is the best player in the upcoming NBA Draft. He’s probably also its best rebounder, undoubtedly its best passer, and one of its best athletes.
He isn’t, however, the best fit for any of the teams with the top three picks.
» Catch every minute of Simmons’ debut season with our Ben Simmons NBA fixtures page
» Learn how you can watch every NBA game this season with our Australian NBA live streaming and TV guide
With the draft order now decided, we know the Philadelphia 76ers will pick first, the LA Lakers second and the Boston Celtics third.
Philadelphia will have the chance to take Simmons, and there are obvious benefits to such a move. Not only is Simmons a serious talent, but he has family ties to current head coach Brett Brown, who coached his dad David at the Melbourne Tigers.
If they want to take the best available player, then Simmons is the pick. But if they want someone who fills a need on their roster, it’s a different story.
The 76ers already have plenty of talent in Simmons’ power forward position. They’ve used recent lottery picks on Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor, and, while none are good enough to demand the organisation pass on Simmons, they indicate a smaller player – say, for example, Brandon Ingram – would be a better fit.
It’s much the same case in Lakerland. LA already have Julius Randle at the four spot and are in far greater need of a wing scorer like, oh, I dunno, Brandon Ingram.
Again, it’s a case of the best available player versus the best available fit.
Boston have a greater need at power forward than the 76ers and Lakers, but the Celtics also need to add a consistent three-point shooter to their roster. Forgive the broken record here, but Ingram is exactly that – he shot over 40 per cent from deep during his time at Duke.
Admittedly, Simmons is a better fit for Boston than LA or Philadelphia. But he won’t be going there. While Ingram fills a need for both sides with the top two picks, he can only be taken once. In a draft shallow on talent, there’s no way Simmons will slide any further than number two.
Here’s the thing: while the draft order is set, there’s still no knowing who’s going to go where. Trades are certain to occur; new general manager Bryan Colangelo knows the 76ers need experienced players, not more rookies. He’s not been shy of brave moves in the past – he drafted Amar’e Stoudemire straight out of high school in a risky but excellent pick for Phoenix – and if the right team comes calling for the top pick a deal will be done.
Similarly, the Lakers would be sorely tempted to trade Simmons, should he fall to them, for DeMarcus Cousins. While the Aussie will probably fit neatly into the offence of Luke Walton he won’t be a franchise player straight out of the draft.
Cousins, in spite of his well-documented attitude issues, is a superstar. The Lakers have a history of acquiring outstanding big men (see Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Shaquille O’Neal), and with Kobe Bryant now retired, they are in need of another franchise player.
But if Philadelphia or Los Angeles could trade away Simmons, surely that means Boston could trade for him, right?
That’s true, but he won’t be their number one trade or free agency option. The Celtics are sure to make a play at Kevin Durant, who will out of contract at the end of this season. Should that fail, they have sufficient assets to attempt to trade for Paul George or Jimmy Butler.
Simmons is unproven and untested, a phenomenal prospect with an abundance of upside yet enough flaws in his game to indicate he won’t be an instant, sure-fire superstar.
He’ll be good. He’ll probably be an All-Star. But, at the moment, Simmons isn’t what the top three lottery teams need.