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Should Ireland be considered favourites against South Africa in June?

Ireland are looking good for the future. (Warwick Gastinger / CC BY 2.0)
Roar Guru
18th May, 2016
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2392 Reads

I will begin this article by answering the question first up. No, they shouldn’t – but they should be considered joint favourites for the tour down in the Republic.

In fact, we could almost say that you could flip the coin on this one. You may even be bold enough to predict that the series will come to a 2-1 split, meaning that Ireland could quite possibly make history by beating the Springboks for the first time on home soil.

The 2016 edition of the North versus South series presents itself as the most exciting in recent years with three out of the four SANZAAR nations in realistic danger of losing their respective series. New Zealand, of course, is the one you could bet your house on to make a clean sweep over Wales.

This is not to say that the Welsh team is rubbish – I actually believe them to be a very formidable opponent – it has more to do with nothing really changing for either side.

Warren Gatland and Steve Hansen (both Kiwis) remain the coaches for these two teams, so you could expect more of the same in terms of playing style by both the All Blacks and the Dragons.

While it is true that New Zealand has lost a number of stalwarts (Richie McCaw, Daniel Carter, Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu, Conrad Smith and Ma’a Nonu), Super Rugby has shown that the difference of performance by the men in black will be relatively unchanged; perhaps a small fraction weaker at best.

As good as Wales can be on their day – Wales versus New Zealand games are somehow always good to watch – I cannot see them defying history this time around, not against an All Black team that seems set to improve year after year regardless of personnel changes. Still, you can expect good rugby between these two teams. No quarter will be asked; no quarter shall be given.

Across the Tasman, Australia will be taking on the 2016 Six Nations Champions, who seem to be on to something special in both domestic and international rugby. Saracens have recently been crowned champions in their own right, so 2016 seems to be shaping up as a relatively successful year for the men in white. England definitely needed this after their shambolic efforts at the 2015 Rugby World Cup.

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One mistake that they will need to avoid is assuming that the men in gold will be severely weakened by the somewhat indifferent showings of the Australian Conference in Super Rugby. I was glad to see Wallaby coach, Michael Cheika, set the record straight by saying that form in the domestic southern competition does not necessarily translate to international form.

The Aussie players currently occupying their respective franchises in the tournament will be exposed to a completely different environment as well as superior coaching while donning the gold and green jerseys. Any technical flaw will (hopefully) be corrected by Cheika and company before they take the field, as was the case in last year’s Rugby Championship and World Cup.

New Zealand, Argentinian and South African supporters will recognise England versus Australia to be the main attraction in June. It certainly is the series that will attract the most attention. Should England win the series, they will move up to second on the world rankings. Should the Wallabies win the series, they will retain their respectable standing as the best team in the world after the All Blacks.

The Red Roses’ improvement in the last few months cannot be underestimated. Say what you will about the concluded Six Nations and its quality, the results remain the same. England overcame a massive hurdle by winning the tournament for the first time in years. They did not lie down after the embarrassment of 2015. Instead, they made a number of crucial decisions that had to be made to improve – and they did.

In saying that, it would also be a serious mistake to write off the Wallabies. We often forget that Michael Cheika is still in the infancy of his international coaching career, and the marked improvement the Wallabies have shown under him in that short space of time is a testament to his coaching ability.

Argentina have officially joined the ‘Big Three’ of the southern hemisphere this year, and that earns them a mention here. Los Pumas will face off against Italy in a solitary match before they take on France in a two match series.

With respect to Italy, they have been terrible. I will full-well expect a win for the Argentinians, but I am also a little weary of their chances against France.

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While it is true that Super Rugby performances do not equate to test form, a large part of the international side consists of the struggling Jaguares. This should be enough to worry anyone and yet, I believe that Argentina will most probably take the series as France have continued their tradition of blowing hot and cold throughout their recent season.

Ireland versus the Springboks, alike to England versus Australia, is a very tough one to call. Ireland completed a very mediocre campaign in this year’s Six Nations when compared to their previous efforts of the past two seasons.

There were various contributing factors to explain this. First was the loss of legendary lock-forward and captain, Paul ‘O Connell – a man that pushed many great players like Sam Whitelock, Lood de Jager and Alun-Wyn Jones to be recognised as the best Number Five in the world. Second was a plethora of injuries to significant players that contribute to their style of play. Third is a loss of form of other key players like that of Connor Murray.

Whatever the case, I would expect Ireland to feel fairly confident when stepping onto the shores of the Rainbow Nation. They hold a superior record to the men in green and gold in recent meetings. They also beat the Springboks handsomely the last time they met. Yes all of those victories have come at home, and they have never beaten South Africa in South Africa; but the winning culture of recent times against the Boks will give them a psychological advantage. They know that they can beat South Africa on any given day.

On the other side of the fence sits a very vulnerable Springbok side. Their reputation is not quite what it once was thanks largely to the shocking losses to Japan and Argentina in 2015. The streets are silent and there is a mist of negativity falling on South African hearts. Morale has never been lower.

Yet this could serve as a driving force for the men in green and gold. They will be desperate to instil a feeling of belief in their fans. They will desperately want to bring a smile back to their fans’ faces. As the World Cup showed, South Africa is an entirely different beast when under pressure and written off.

Still, this is a very anxious time for South African Rugby. Older players have moved on (hopefully), they have a new coach in Allister Coetzee. Super Rugby form is more or less the same as previous years, and transformation has finally taken flight – what’s done is done, I implore anyone reading this article to leave discussion on the fairness of quota firmly in the cupboard. It is happening. There is no use in crying over spilt milk.

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The South African rugby union again missed a beat by stalling the appointment of Allister Coetzee as the new Springbok mentor. This was the worst kept secret in the history of rugby. Everyone knew that Coetzee was the logical choice to take the Springboks into a new era of transformation – why on earth would you keep stalling?

Contrary to popular belief, international coaches don’t sit at home drinking beer and watching golf for months until the June internationals come stumbling by. Steve Hansen is working tirelessly with his franchises and age group levels. Allister Coetzee now only has little more than a month to prepare for the Irish onslaught, which is relatively unfair considering his two predecessors, Pieter de Villiers and Heyneke Meyer, had more than four months’ time to get their act together.

Preparation is key to good season, especially when it comes to Test match rugby.

A question arose at the unveiling of Coetzee as coach and again during the week, asking whether South Africa should be looking to their overseas-based options.

If they are serious of becoming the best team in the world, then yes. I am of the belief that merit overcomes all and that merit should be the determining factor when selecting a Springbok side. If an overseas-based player is playing better rugby than a player playing locally, then he should be selected. Given the circumstances, it is only the logical thing to do.

The belief that selecting only local players will keep players in South Africa is one that is opaque to me. Even now, European teams are already in talks with a number of players that include the du Preez twins, Willie le Roux, Franco Mostert, Eben Etzebeth, Thomas du Toit and Marcell Coetzee. The cold, hard fact is that there is not enough money to go around in South Africa. We cannot compete with the euro or the pound. Forcing selection on only local players will not fix this. Things will only get worse from here on out.

If you want to be the best then you select the best. It is as simple as that. And it’s not that big of a deal when you look at it from this perspective. As things stand, only a few foreign-based players will be selected anyway.

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In the front row, the Springboks ought to be well off with local talent. Trevor Nyakane, Tendai Mtawarira, Adriaan Strauss, Frans Malherbe, Malcolm Marx, Julian Redelinghuys and Armand van der Merwe should all be in the reckoning when it comes to selection.

The only foreign players with great form that might get a look in will probably be Steven Kitshoff, Ashley Johnson and Bismarck du Plessis.

As always, South Africa are spoiled for choice in the locking positions. Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager, Franco Mostert, Pieter-Steph du Toit and RG Snyman are all playing good rugby. They should be chosen considering their form. In Europe, players like Paul Willemse, Flip van der Merwe and Jacques du Plessis are also playing well, but there is really no need to include them; the aforementioned five local players are all better options.

In the loose-forwards, this is also the case. At open and blindside flanker, the logical choices would be Marcell Coetzee and Jaco Kriel. Unfortunately, Coetzee is out for the rest of the year and this opens up the possibility for players like either of the du Preez twins, Siya Kolisi, Nizaam Carr, Warrick Tecklenburg, Lappies Labuschagne or (God forbid) Oupa Mahoje. Here the only overseas based players that might throw the balance out of order are Francois Louw and Heinrich Brussow.

At number eight, the option is rather simple. Duane Vermeulen is far and away the best of anyone in or outside of South Africa. Warren Whiteley would best be used as a cover for the big number eight, but should not start over him. While a good player, Whiteley has shown that he does not thrive in Test match rugby and that he does not provide the all-round game that Vermeulen does.

At scrum-half, the options will all be from local players. Faf de Klerk, Rudy Paige, Cobus Reinach and Piet van Zyl will all throw their names in the hat. I believe that Coetzee will go with de Klerk and Paige.

At fly-half, the options are also relatively straightforward. Elton Jantjies will be rewarded for his good form and Patrick Lambie will provide the steady hand of experience from the bench. Garth April has shown himself to be a good player, as has Jean-Luc du Plessis. The outside chance here is the current irresistible form of Johan Goosen.

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The centres will be provided locally as well. Lionel Mapoe, Jan Serfontein, Francois Venter, Jesse Kriel and Damian de Allende will all be considered. The wingers, with Bryan Habana on sevens duty, will come from Ruan Combrinck, JP Pietersen, Lwazi Mvovo, Jamba Ulengo, Travis Ismaiel and Courtnall Skosan.

Fullbacks will also be local. Willie le Roux is probably the safest choice, though Andries Coetzee, Cheslin Kolbe and SP Marais will try to usurp the incumbent.

So, off-hand, only Duane Vermeulen is a necessity with Francois Louw and Johan Goosen pushing for selection.

With transformation in mind, this is the team that I would choose:

1. Tendai Mtawarira (186cm, 116kg)
2. Malcolm Marx (189cm, 119kg)
3. Trevor Nyakane (178cm, 120kg)
4. Eben Etzebeth (204cm, 117kg)
5. Pieter-Steph du Toit (200cm, 115kg)
6. Jaco Kriel (184cm, 100kg)
7. Siya Kolisi (188cm, 101kg)
8. Duane Vermeulen (193cm, 116kg)
9. Faf de Klerk (170cm, 80kg)
10. Elton Jantjies (177cm, 87kg)
11. Jamba Ulengo (188cm, 100kg)
12. Damian de Allende (188cm, 101kg)
13. Lionel Mapoe (183cm, 97kg)
14. JP Pietersen (190cm, 106kg)
15. Willie le Roux (185cm, 90kg)

My predictions for the June internationals look like this:

New Zealand 3–0 Wales
Australia 2–1 England
Argentina 1–0 Italy
Argentina 1–1 France
South Africa 2–1 Ireland

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What do you think Roarers? Will Ireland finally triumph in South Africa? Could they win the series on the go?

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