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The Goodwood 2016: Historically and analytically

Roar Guru
19th May, 2016
5

The Goodwood is Race 7 (4.20pm AEST) at Morphettville on Saturday run over a distance of 1200m. It is a famous old Sprint race of the Australian Turf conceived in 1881.

It was made a set weights and penalties race in 2007 (previously a handicap) which attracted the high calibre likes of Takeover Target and Black Caviar, who duly won at very short odds. But apart from those two results, taking Handicap status away from the race hasn’t stopped the upset results coming.

So to say it has been a bit of a nightmare race for punters would be somewhat of an understatement. Below are the last nine winners nine winners (including age and gender) since the race became a set weights and penalties race.

2015 FLAMBERGE 5g
2014 SMOKIN’ JOEY 6g
2013 PLATELET 4m
2012 BLACK CAVIAR 5m
2011 LONE ROCK 3f
2010 VELOCITEA 4m
2009 TAKEOVER TARGET 9g
2008 SHADOWAYS 5g
2007 LET GO THOMMO 6g

Recent History tells us:
– Five of the last nine winners started $20 or better, and four of those have been $31 or better.
– 11 of the last 13 winners have been trained in Victoria, and possibly 12/13 had been stabled there ( Let Go Thommo?).
– 12 of the last 13 have started at 1100m or 1200m last start.
– Wider barriers appear to be no real disadvantage with 6 of the last 13 winners drawing in the second half of the field. Four of those drew a double-digit barrier.
– A filly or mare has won four of the past five editions and five of the past 12. In the past 26 years, eight have won, representing a strike rate of nearly 31 per cent.
– Four year olds have the most prolific record winning 11 of the past 26 editions, but oddly no four-year-old male horse has won since the year 2000, and only four have won since 1990.

Track condition
The track is currently rated a Good 4 with the chance of some shower activity in the next couple of days. The Saturday forecest is for fine weather at this stage tough and a rain affected track doesn’t seem likely. It should be the ideal surface for the majority of this field.

Race tempo
There is enough genuine speed in the race with Super One, Sirbible and Flamberge engaged. All three have drawn wide so will need to get going early.

A trio of Hayes/Dabernig runners – Faatinah, Sheidel and Miss Promiscuity – should also be right on the pace early, and none of the three has drawn an inside barrier.

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The race could be set up for a midfield or rearward positioned horse to swoop home in the straight, and it could be advantageous for that type of horse to be drawn a middle or wider barrier, avoiding the faster paced horses crossing over to the rail early in the race.

Analysis
Once again this year we have a wonderful race to assess and look forward to viewing. The set weights and penalties nature of the race actually adds further intrigue, and we can dismiss a few horses that aren’t suited under this scale.

1. FLAMBERGE – At first glance many people might want to dismiss him with 59.5kg. The thing is though he only concedes 6.5kg to the bottom weighted horse, and that is a similar scenario to what he encountered before winning the Oakleigh Plate three starts ago. He meets The Quarterback 5kg better for beating him home comfortably in that race.

Off his William Reid Stakes win he isn’t so well placed, but he wasn’t as fresh that day and I wonder if that was his best effort, despite the win. A rails run in the straight there earned him victory, while one or two others were out of luck.

You have to dismiss his run up in Sydney, because it was only a 9-day break between runs, and on a wet track. He is very hard to beat when he has any more than a month between runs and is possibly a 2-3 length better horse when he is. He comes into this off a 49-day break, not a lot different to last year where he came off a similar failure in Sydney off a 56-day respite. Notably he has won his last three starts on left handed tracks around a turn.

Amazingly he has had two Oakleigh Plate runs and drawn barrier 15 and 17 (He couldn’t possibly win the first one when 4-5 wide the whole race behind Lankan Rupee), and this is his second Goodwood Handicap drawing barrier 16 both times. He was three wide last year and won, and was three wide in the Oakleigh Plate this year and won that, both quite astounding efforts in reality.

He is aiming to be the first horse since 1912 to win this back to back, and if he can get a similar run to last year he is a very good chance of doing so. He is four rating points in front of any other horse in the race, and his early odds of $16 are well and truly sufficient to invest, however he might even drift from that price. He is the one they all have to beat.

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2. THE QUARTERBACK – Doesn’t appear to be well weighted in this race although he is in fine form and could make a liar out of me on his William Reid run at WFA when he was a bit unlucky not to win. Barrier 1 might not do him any favours being a get back horse, but if he gets any luck he will be rattling home late to make his presence felt.

3. BLACK HEART BART – Is the early favourite for the race and meets Flamberge on similar weight terms to last year when he got too far back in the race, but was eye-catching late. He traveled for the first time prior to running last year, but has been in the Victorian stable of Darren Weir for most of this year.

He meets The Quarterback 3kg better for a narrow defeat in the Newmarket, and I think it’s fair to say if you swap the lanes in that race he would have beaten that horse. Not sure his inside barrier does him any favours, as he did end up back in the field on the rails last year, which proved his undoing.

Just maybe he is a better horse at 1400m too. No denying he is one of the better weighted horses in the race though, and he could well be fighting out the finish with one or two others. I’m just not sure his price is any value at $4 or less.

4. CHURCHILL DANCER – It’s nine starts since he won a race and not really renowned as a first up performer. It’s also hard to see him overturning the result in the Newmarket against Black Heart Bart, meeting him 1.5kg worse off at the weights.

One thing that might be in his favour is a wide draw in comparison to both the aforementioned. If they don’t get clear galloping room, and he does, then luck could be a fortune. He is capable enough and seems the typical type of horse (at a price) that wins this race.

5. GRIANTE – Scratched.

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6. BIG MONEY – Is an interesting runner who comes off a barrier trial win at Rosehill. His first up record is only fair, and he does seem a bit short of the class needed to win a Group 1 race. In this race I’d prefer to see him with a couple of kilos less weight, but he is very consistent, and his outside barrier might be a bonus in avoiding any crowding early. He is only a small horse and a trouble free run could be imperative. Not out of it but I think a few others have better claims.

7. SMOKIN’ JOEY – Won this race two years ago but it was on a wet track and he failed to make an impression here last year. Doesn’t seem to be in good enough form coming in and would need everything to fall into place.

8. NOSTRADAMUS – Drawn horribly wide and poorly weighted in relation to some others. Certainly can’t win on his last run here two weeks ago.

9. FAST ‘N’ ROCKING – He is certainly one horse that can win this race from a weights perspective, especially when you consider his William Reid Stakes run at M/Valley three starts ago. He meets Flamberge and The Quarterback 3kg and 2.5kg better respectively out of that race. He did beat the latter horse home, and was beaten less than a length by the former.

The problem with investing on this horse is that he has only won one of his past seventeen races. All his wins have been at odds of $5.50 or less, and he only has five placings in 27 runs at odds greater than that.

Assuming that it would be wise to steer clear of him again, but this is his best distance, and ironically his early price is twice what it should be on recent performances against some of these.

10. DAYTONA GREY – Looks outclassed at the weights here and can’t possibly win off his last start effort. A wet track would give him some chance of an upset.

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11. UNDER THE LOUVRE – Has become somewhat of a heartbreak horse for his supporters, always promising to deliver, before and during a race, but falling short of expectations at the finish. He is very well weighted though and this is his big chance to win a Group One race.

He ran third in this race last year and maybe should have finished a little closer beaten 1.3 lengths. He meets Flamberge 3kg better for that meeting and probably has a better preparation coming in second up, compared to fourth up last year. He loomed up to win first up with 60kg on his back, but once again couldn’t quite haul in the winner or runner up.

He meets Sheidel 3.5kg better for a last start meeting, and Churchill Dancer 5kg better for a narrow defeat six starts ago. He is 6-5/13 at this distance, 2-2/4 second up, and is still yet to win a race with less than fifteen days between runs (0/7), so the month break into this race is perfect for him.

It looks as though Dwayne Dunne has preferred to ride him rather than Fast ‘N’ Rocking, and an outer barrier should suit him in a fast run race. It’s ten starts since he last won a race, which is a big reason why he is so well weighted. Considering that $8 odds seem about his right price, but if he produces his absolute best, that quote is overs. He should just about be favourite.

12. ADMIRAL – This fabulously consistent Tasmanian galloper looks a great chance in the race meeting the potential star Supido 3.5kg better for a long neck defeat last start at Flemington. His second up runs are generally superior to his first up ones so we can assume he will be primed to win this race. The only proviso I will place on that is that he normally goes to 1400m second up but at least he goes up 200m in distance here from his last start.

The only other run outside of Tasmania was an arguably luckless run in the Australian Guineas as a three year old when only beaten 3 lengths by the likes of Wandjina and Stratum Star which is strong enough form for this. That is the biggest margin he has been beaten in 20 career runs to date, and it’s very hard to pick any holes in him, with his biggest asset being an ability to put himself in the right position in a race.

He has drawn perfectly, and should position behind the leading bunch, meaning he should get the first crack at them in the straight. Maybe the biggest problem for him is going to be the big field. His two runs in fields of more than 10 runners have been his only unplaced efforts, so getting a trouble free run is probably critical to his chances.

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He has jockey Brendan McCoull aboard though and he has already won 14 races on him. Without a doubt he is one of the best chances in this race, and healthy double figure odds are very enticing.

13. FAATINAH – Is an in-form three-year-old winning two on end coming into this race but he looks horribly placed at the weights against opponents he should be getting 5-6 kilos from. Is going to make his own luck up front, but I think we are entitled to think fellow three-year-old Sooboog is the better chance in receipt of 2.5kg off a narrow defeat in their last meeting.

14. SUPER ONE – Finally produced the form he showed in Singapore when resuming in Adelaide two weeks ago. He had won all of his four starts there as a two and three year old, running some excellent times (comparatively) before disappointing in his only two Australian starts last Spring.

The stable describes him a gross colt who needs a lot of work to get him fit, so we can only assume he will be further improved coming into this race. He will probably find the lead from his wide barrier and can’t be underestimated at a distance he has had no trouble with in his homeland.

His price of $15 is about right given he seems to have ‘found his feet’ in Australia.

15. SUPIDO – Faces his acid test here but has always promised to rise to this level. His time at Flemington two starts ago with 60kg eclipsed the overall time in the Newmarket some six weeks earlier that was won by The Quarterback who carried only 52kg. Different days admittedly, and Supido won on a slightly firmer surface, but it does make you sit up and take notice.

Similarly his win at Moonee Valley three starts back, where he also carried a big weight and broke 1.10.00 for 1200m that night, which isn’t done too often. He wasn’t as authoritative last start coming back in distance to 1000m with a far lighter weight, but it wasn’t a race trainer Mick Kent was keen to run him in, but had to in view of getting a run here in a Group one event.

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The horse isn’t blessed with the strongest of constitutions, so he can’t be overtaxed. Taking that into account he might have been a little underdone fitness wise last start, and we can expect him to peak here. Ideally you would like to see him with even less weight (would have carried 52kg in the Newmarket), but he has won six consecutive races and isn’t overly burdened with 54.5kg.

He can win this, of that I have no doubt, but he does go up a lot in class in a big field, and I’m not sure his $5.50 price is adequate recognition of the task that faces him.

Playing Devil’s Advocate, it’s interesting that he has won two races in fields that have contained fourteen runners, but both have been down the Flemington straight. The largest field he has opposed around a turn is nine runners and he faces 18 opponents here.

16. SIRBIBLE – Is a prolific winner from the Northern Territory but seems to be out of his depth in this lineup. In a proper handicap race he would get 52kg or less, so he seems to be weighted out of the event coming off an unplaced run at Alice Springs last start. He is a very speedy horse though and might be a nuisance to the other on pacers in the race.

17. CASHED – Is a capable Adelaide galloper but he does look totally out of his depth class wise, and doesn’t meet his last start vanquisher Super One any better at the weights off a five length defeat.

18. MISS PROMISCUITY – She fell here in the Sangster Stakes two weeks ago when a $13 chance. This looks a lot harder race and it’s hard to see her winning it at the weights, given the quality of the opposition opposing her. She is the best drawn of the in pace brigade though and could be in the race for a long way.

19. SHEIDEL – Is a very honest West Australian mare who makes her own luck from up on the speed. She probably should have won the Sangster last start after being inconvenienced somewhat ironically by her stablemate Miss Promiscuity, who had fallen early in the race but then went searching for the lead.

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Mares have quite a good record in the race and she can make her presence felt, but she doesn’t look well treated at the weights when you look at her last meeting against Under The Louvre. Nevertheless her strike rate doesn’t lie, and her on pace pattern of racing could work in her favour.

20. SOOBOOG – Had his first run for the Darren Weir stable last start which was an improvement. But again he proved to be his own worst enemy by missing the start by 3-4 lengths before flying home to finish second.

This horse has always had a rap on him after running second to Vancouver (Golden Slipper winner) on debut, but he hasn’t lived up to the hype, and seems to be a few lengths shy of our better three year olds.

He has been slow away at nearly half his career starts, and he can’t afford to do that against these. He should beat home fellow three year old Faatinah with a 2.5kg weight pull, and he does drop 4.5kg off that last start which gives him some hope. But I can’t have him as one of the better chances.

Conclusion
Analytically, it’s a very tough race to be confident of an outcome, but it’s one I’m really looking forward to and I have it down to five main chances. They are Flamberge, Black Heart Bart, Under The Louvre, Admiral, and Supido.

I would place them in this order:

1. UNDER THE LOUVRE – Best weighted horse in the race. No way in the world he should be weighted on 55.5kg drawing a form/weights line through Fast ‘N’ Rocking/Sheidel/Bullpit/Admiral/Supido. He has met FNR and beaten him three times proving he is at least a 2-3kg better horse. He gets 0.5kg off that horse here.

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2. FLAMBERGE – Wonderful fresh horse and he should be less than $10.

3. ADMIRAL – Weighted to beat Supido, and never runs a bad race.

4. SUPIDO – Potentially the best sprinter in the race and I’d love to see him win.

5. BLACK HEART BART – He is a great chance but I’d want $5 at least in this field.

The form analyst in me says Under The Louvre is the top selection, but admittedly he needs to rediscover his will to win. Both Flamberge and Admiral are at enticing double figure quotes, and the horse I’d most like to see win is Supido, but it’s hard to recommend backing him at anything under $7. That price or better would interest me though.

I’m finding it very hard to recommend what to bet, and how to bet this race, given the amount of chances, and the value available. But of all the above-mentioned horses, Under the Louvre, Flamberge, Admiral and Fast ‘n’ Rocking appeal as the best value in early fixed markets. All four should probably be single figure odds, and only one of them is.

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