This week gives us another Saturday with Group 1 races in two different states.
The Doomben Cup, a weight-for-age race over 2000 metres, has top billing in the prizemoney stakes, worth $650,000, while the Goodwood, despite being only $500,000, might attract the most interest, with a big field in what is sure to be a competitive edition of Adelaide’s most time-honoured race.
The Goodwood has attracted the usual array of hardy veterans and up-and-comers. It’s worth noting that since the race became a set weights with penalties affair in 2007, in nine runnings it has produced a winner priced at $21 or higher, with three 30-1 shots in that number.
In fact, outside Black Caviar and Takeover Target, prohibitive favourites taking on weak fields, the average-priced winner has been $24. This is a race to chance your arm if you like a roughie.
Black Heart Bart is the testing material, and you can make a case that $3.80 is generous if you ignore the historical precedent. This campaign has seen him run second in the Newmarket, win the Victoria Handicap, and just fall shy of English in the All Aged Stakes at weight for age.
He’s the best-weighted horse in the race under these conditions, clearly has the class and versatility, is fit, in form, and has drawn well. There’s nothing not to like. Five weeks between runs suggest the drop back in distance from 1400 to 1200 metres should be no issue.
He has a handful of genuine dangers, in the form of some seasoned campaigners, plus some more precocious types.
Under the Louvre has been Group 1 placed three times, in races like last year’s Goodwood, the Rupert Clarke and Oakleigh Plate, and we know he is well capable of winning this sort of race if he gets the breaks with his get-back style.
Flamberge defends his title from last year and has actually picked up two more Group 1 wins since. He’ll have to carry 2.5 kilograms more than last year, which he’s earned, and he’s in well despite having to carry the 59 kilograms. Barrier 16 won’t worry him, given that’s where he jumped from in 2015 to win this, and his Oakleigh Plate victory was out of 15. He’s huge odds.
The Quarterback will race honestly, but meets a few of these worse at the weights thanks to his Newmarket victory. Black Heart Bart gets three kilograms from him on that run and has performed better since.
Fast N Rocking is the big odds of the field, in a race where he is one of the best three weighted horses in it. His last two runs have been on the soft, where he doesn’t really go (record on worse than good is 8: 0-0-1) but has run very well anyway.
If we look at his last three 1200-metre runs on good tracks, they have all been at Group 1 weight for age, where his biggest losing margin has been 2.3 lengths, and only eight horses have beaten him home – seven of them individual Group 1 winners in their own right (Chautauqua, Srikandi, Rebel Dane, Buffering, Flamberge, Holler, Japonisme), plus Waterman’s Bay, a dual Group 1 place-getter in Perth.
His previous good track 1200-metre run before those Group 1 events, he beat The Quarterback into second, even conceding him three kilograms. He meets that horse 5.5 kilograms better here, and meets Flamberge three kilograms better for being a length behind him in the William Reid.
Fast N Rocking will get back from a wide draw, and if the speed is on, he’s going to be the horse to beat.
Supido is the fresh horse on the scene, unbeaten in his last six runs as he’s progressed from maiden class and through the grades thanks to the ever-astute placement by trainer Mick Kent. He’s a good one, but is going to need to be to take this out.
Tasmanian horse Admiral meets Supido 3.5 kilograms better for running him to half a length last start. His fifth in the Australian Guineas last season tells us he has a touch of class, and he appeals as a value hope.
Sheidel is coming off a second in the Sangster, but has drawn trickly after taking advantage of the rails gate last start. Miss Promiscuity beat The Quarterback two starts back, and ran well behind Malaguerra earlier in her campaign giving him weight, and that form looks stronger and stronger. She’s a chance at odds. Can Super One go on with it now that he has recorded his first Australian victory, in the McKay Stakes last start?
Selections
1. Fast N Rocking
2. Black Heart Bart
3. Flamberge
4. Under the Louvre
The Doomben Cup looks an even affair, and there’s no horse you’d say with certainty that couldn’t win.
The non-winner Hauraki will jump as favourite, as has been his way in weight-for-age races lately. He doesn’t know how to run a bad race, but he doesn’t know how to beat them all either. His fiverun prep, all at weight for age, has consisted of four placings. Does he need to be ridden closer? He’ll be around about again.
Volkstok’n’barrell put the writing on the wall in the Hollindale last start that he’s ready to win in Australia again, which he hasn’t done since defeating Preferment in the Rosehill Guineas.
It’s Somewhat was unlucky in the same race, and his fifth was much better than it reads on paper. He’s shown his share of ability in his time here, suggesting he’ll be winning one of these type of races.
Of course, Leebaz actually won the Hollindale at bigger odds than all of the above, and will jump longer than them once more. He flopped in the Doomben Cup last year after winning that race, and punters have long memories. He’ll go forward, and should look the winner again at some stage.
Our Ivanhowe can always find an excuse, but if he puts it all together and gets things his way there’s a good race in him. Noble Protector was building to a win in her right grade after placing behind Azakadellia in the Queen of the Turf. Six weeks into a 2000-metre weight-for-age race doesn’t inspire confidence, though.
Where does the import Spiritjim fit in? He’ll be a watch runner again, and you can always do worse than backing the Waller/Bowman combo at value odds if you’ve got too many question marks about others.
Lady Le Fay deserves her chance in this sort of race after three excellent runs around good horses leading in. Messene will lead them along and keep them honest, and should ensure every horse gets their chance. Maurus has staying for at the lower levels, and should find these too classy.
Selections
1. Volkstok’n’barrell
2. Hauraki
3. Leebaz
4. It’s Somewhat
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