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The AFL Contenders: Part 1 - What holds back the Cats?

Dangerfield has breathed fire into an ageing Geelong Cats squad. (AAP Image/Ben Macmahon)
Expert
23rd May, 2016
28
1791 Reads

Before the trading period Geelong were paying $17 for the flag. More recently, they’re paying $4. The only other shortening of the odds that compares this year is in the preferred Prime Minister polls.

The loss to Collingwood may have highlighted some vulnerabilities, but it also highlighted strengths. After being blown away in the first quarter, the Cats fought back hard. They ended up with 54 inside 50s to Collingwood’s 46, and 17 marks inside 50 to Collingwood’s 10. They did this with almost 30 fewer possessions.

However, after quarter time the Cats kicked 11.11 to the Woods’ 9.3. It was a case study of Geelong’s strengths and weaknesses.

There’s tremendous marking power across the ground for Geelong, which means when they win the ball – which they do often – they can make it count. They average 375 possessions for 58 inside 50s per match, so they’re going forward at better than every six-and-a-half touches (6.46). North do it every 6.88 touches, GWS every 6.93. Sydney at 6.36. What is more impressive is that the Cats manage 17 marks inside 50 per game, one for every 3.4 forward thrusts.

The Cats’ contested marking power means even when the opposition shut down the space and force players to kick to a contest, Geelong players can back their teammates. Averaging 17 marks inside 50 per game says it all, well, almost all.

The trouble begins in front of goal. As the old saying goes – it’s the economy, stupid. This season Geelong has kicked 139.131, a success rate of 51.48 per cent. Even in the zero-pressure romp against Gold Coast, the Cats managed goal kicking efficiency of less than 59 per cent.

Since the Round 1 win against Hawthorn, and ignoring the statistically negligible number of rushed behinds, Geelong has been kicking for goal at worse than half-rate with 121.123.

North Melbourne has kicked as many goals as Geelong this season – 139 – but just 107 behinds, 24 fewer wasted chances than the Cats. So they’re kicking at 56.5 per cent.

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Greater Western Sydney has kicked 149.118, at 55.8 per cent. If Geelong had scored goals at that rate, they’d have 150 for the year to date – and would likely be 8-1.

Since their Round 1 loss to Melbourne, the Giants have kicked at better than 58 per cent. Geelong in the same period? 49.5 per cent.

The other worrying tendency for Geelong are the lapses that have cost them two matches so far. Against the Cats allowed GWS to race out to an eight-goal lead in Round 2 before pulling back to within 7 points, ultimately losing by 13. Against Collingwood they cut a 44-point lead down to 7 points before losing by four goals.

They lost the first quarter against Port five goals to one, and the third term against Hawthorn five goals to none – but won both games comfortably in the end. The Eagles slotted 5.2 in about eight minutes before Geelong regained control and romped home.

Once again this, weirdly enough, also demonstrates a certain strength – Geelong have been challenged several times and shown the nerve and character to step up. If they can iron the lapses out of their game, they could be unstoppable.

The Cats’ 152 marks inside 50 from just nine matches is a ridiculous and potentially terrifying stat. In the fine September weather, their Land of the Giants forward line should stretch any defence, but it won’t serve them well unless they nail down the fundamental art of kicking the ball between the big sticks.

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