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How are our swimmers looking after the European Championships?

Cam McEvoy, one of our fastest ever swimmers, is gunning for gold on Day 7 in the pool. (Chan-Fan / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 4.0)
Roar Guru
23rd May, 2016
30

The European Aquatics Championships have just finished. This has given us a much better idea of how Australia is placed ahead of the Rio Olympics.

We are now just waiting on the US Nationals which traditionally happen much closer to the Olympics, as they do for track and field.

This means the standard should be marginally higher than trials held earlier, which means there is basically no time to improve between the US Nationals and the Olympics. There is only time for recovery, maintenance and sharpening.

Significant improvements can only really happen if one of the top swimmers took the punt on not fully tapering for the Nationals, backing that they were good enough to qualify regardless.

With the Australian trials happening further out from the Games, there is time for some serious work and potential improvement before the Games. However, there is also the chance to get it a bit wrong and go off the boil.

Having the trials at that time does fit in with our season, which for swimming and track and field is in summer.

Let’s look at the events where we are at least a strong medal chance. The Japanese and Chinese trials have also been held. The women’s relay times are calculated simply by adding the trial times, and with flying starts and the adrenaline of a relay, you’d usually expect to lose 0.5 off legs two to four.

The men’s 4 x 100 freestyle time is what they swam as a time trial, but you could see the boys were pretty spent by the end of the meet. Adding their trial times is faster than what they recorded in that race.

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This will, of course, have to be reconsidered after the US Nationals. Who knows what they will throw at us this year.

Event Australian Winner Time World Ranking Euros Result
Men’s 50m freestyle Cameron McEvoy 21.44 2nd by 0.02 (Manadou FRA) 21.73 Manadou
Men’s 100m freestyle Cameron McEvoy 47.04 1st, by a stunning 0.92 48.25
Men’s 400m freestyle Mack Horton 3.41.65 1st, by 2.2 secs 1st 3.44.01 ITA
Men’s 1500m freestyle Mack Horton 14.39.54 1st, by 1.1 sec 14.34, ITA
Men’s 100m backstroke Mitch Larkin 52.54 1st, by 0.43 53.79 FRA
Men’s 200m backstroke Mitch Larkin 1.53.90 1st, Russia 2nd 1.55.98 POL
Men’s 4 x 100m freestyle McEvoy, Roberts, Magnusson, Chalmers 3.12.26 (3.12.07 adding) 1st 3.13.48
Men’s 400m IM Thomas Fraser-Holmes 4.11.09 2nd by over 2 seconds (JAP) 4.13.15 HUN
Women’s 50m freestyle Cate then Bronte Campbell 23.84, 24.24 1st by 0.33, Bronte 4th 24.07 NED
Women’s 100m freestyle Cate, Bronte, McKeon 52.41, 52.78 1-2-4, Sjostrom 0.4 behind Bronte, 5th 0.41 behind McKeon, Elmslie 7th Sjostrom 52.82
Women’s 200m freestyle Emma McKeon 1.54.83 2nd, behind Katie Ledecky (USA) 1.55.93 ITA
Women’s 400m freestyle Jessica Ashwood 4.03.71 3rd, Ledecky is the unbackable favourite 4.03.47 HUN
Women’s 800m freestyle Jessica Ashwood 8.18.42 2nd, an incredible 12 secs behind Ledecky, and 3 sec ahead of 3rd 8.21.4 HUN
Women’s 100m backstroke Emily Seebohm 59.73 3rd by 0.33 so far 58.73 DEN
Women’s 200m backstroke Hocking & Seebohm 2.06.49, 2.06.59 1-2 2.07.01, Hosszu
Women’s 100m butterfly Emma McKeon 56.89 4TH, behind Sjostrom (SWE), DEN, CHI 55.89 SWE
Women’s 4x100m freestyle Campbell x 2, McKeon 3.31.79 1st 3.33.90 NED
Women’s 4x100m Medley Seebohm, Campbell 3.55.19 1st 3.58.57 GBR


Prediction
Seven Gold:
Men’s 100m freestyle, men’s 100m backstroke, men’s 4x100m freestyle, women’s 50m freestyle, women’s 100m freestyle, women’s 4x100m freestyle, women’s 4x100m medley

13 Other Medals (* for possible gold):
Men’s 50m freestyle*, men’s 400m freestyle, men’s 200m backstroke*, men’s 4 x 100m medley*, women’s 50m freestyle (Bronte), women’s 100m freestyle (Bronte), women’s 200m freestyle, women’s 400m freestyle, women’s 800m freestyle, women’s 100m backstroke, women’s 200m backstroke (x2)*, women’s 4x200m freestyle.

Other chances:
Men’s 100m freestyle, men’s 200m freestyle, men’s 1500m freestyle, men’s 400m IM, men’s 4 x 200m freestyle, women’s 100m butterfly.

You can see the biggest locks for individual golds are Katie Ledecky, Cameron McEvoy and Sarah Sjostrom. Aussie fans will be relying on McEvoy, the Campbell sisters, Mitch Larkin and Emily Seebohm for individual golds.

Reaching 10 golds is certainly a possibility if McEvoy, Larkin and the Campbells are really on song in Rio.

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