Roar Guru
The European Aquatics Championships have just finished. This has given us a much better idea of how Australia is placed ahead of the Rio Olympics.
We are now just waiting on the US Nationals which traditionally happen much closer to the Olympics, as they do for track and field.
This means the standard should be marginally higher than trials held earlier, which means there is basically no time to improve between the US Nationals and the Olympics. There is only time for recovery, maintenance and sharpening.
Significant improvements can only really happen if one of the top swimmers took the punt on not fully tapering for the Nationals, backing that they were good enough to qualify regardless.
With the Australian trials happening further out from the Games, there is time for some serious work and potential improvement before the Games. However, there is also the chance to get it a bit wrong and go off the boil.
Having the trials at that time does fit in with our season, which for swimming and track and field is in summer.
Let’s look at the events where we are at least a strong medal chance. The Japanese and Chinese trials have also been held. The women’s relay times are calculated simply by adding the trial times, and with flying starts and the adrenaline of a relay, you’d usually expect to lose 0.5 off legs two to four.
The men’s 4 x 100 freestyle time is what they swam as a time trial, but you could see the boys were pretty spent by the end of the meet. Adding their trial times is faster than what they recorded in that race.
This will, of course, have to be reconsidered after the US Nationals. Who knows what they will throw at us this year.
Event | Australian Winner | Time | World Ranking | Euros Result |
Men’s 50m freestyle | Cameron McEvoy | 21.44 | 2nd by 0.02 (Manadou FRA) | 21.73 Manadou |
Men’s 100m freestyle | Cameron McEvoy | 47.04 | 1st, by a stunning 0.92 | 48.25 |
Men’s 400m freestyle | Mack Horton | 3.41.65 | 1st, by 2.2 secs | 1st 3.44.01 ITA |
Men’s 1500m freestyle | Mack Horton | 14.39.54 | 1st, by 1.1 sec | 14.34, ITA |
Men’s 100m backstroke | Mitch Larkin | 52.54 | 1st, by 0.43 | 53.79 FRA |
Men’s 200m backstroke | Mitch Larkin | 1.53.90 | 1st, Russia 2nd | 1.55.98 POL |
Men’s 4 x 100m freestyle | McEvoy, Roberts, Magnusson, Chalmers | 3.12.26 (3.12.07 adding) | 1st | 3.13.48 |
Men’s 400m IM | Thomas Fraser-Holmes | 4.11.09 | 2nd by over 2 seconds (JAP) | 4.13.15 HUN |
Women’s 50m freestyle | Cate then Bronte Campbell | 23.84, 24.24 | 1st by 0.33, Bronte 4th | 24.07 NED |
Women’s 100m freestyle | Cate, Bronte, McKeon | 52.41, 52.78 | 1-2-4, Sjostrom 0.4 behind Bronte, 5th 0.41 behind McKeon, Elmslie 7th | Sjostrom 52.82 |
Women’s 200m freestyle | Emma McKeon | 1.54.83 | 2nd, behind Katie Ledecky (USA) | 1.55.93 ITA |
Women’s 400m freestyle | Jessica Ashwood | 4.03.71 | 3rd, Ledecky is the unbackable favourite | 4.03.47 HUN |
Women’s 800m freestyle | Jessica Ashwood | 8.18.42 | 2nd, an incredible 12 secs behind Ledecky, and 3 sec ahead of 3rd | 8.21.4 HUN |
Women’s 100m backstroke | Emily Seebohm | 59.73 | 3rd by 0.33 so far | 58.73 DEN |
Women’s 200m backstroke | Hocking & Seebohm | 2.06.49, 2.06.59 | 1-2 | 2.07.01, Hosszu |
Women’s 100m butterfly | Emma McKeon | 56.89 | 4TH, behind Sjostrom (SWE), DEN, CHI | 55.89 SWE |
Women’s 4x100m freestyle | Campbell x 2, McKeon | 3.31.79 | 1st | 3.33.90 NED |
Women’s 4x100m Medley | Seebohm, Campbell | 3.55.19 | 1st | 3.58.57 GBR |
Prediction
Seven Gold:
Men’s 100m freestyle, men’s 100m backstroke, men’s 4x100m freestyle, women’s 50m freestyle, women’s 100m freestyle, women’s 4x100m freestyle, women’s 4x100m medley
13 Other Medals (* for possible gold):
Men’s 50m freestyle*, men’s 400m freestyle, men’s 200m backstroke*, men’s 4 x 100m medley*, women’s 50m freestyle (Bronte), women’s 100m freestyle (Bronte), women’s 200m freestyle, women’s 400m freestyle, women’s 800m freestyle, women’s 100m backstroke, women’s 200m backstroke (x2)*, women’s 4x200m freestyle.
Other chances:
Men’s 100m freestyle, men’s 200m freestyle, men’s 1500m freestyle, men’s 400m IM, men’s 4 x 200m freestyle, women’s 100m butterfly.
You can see the biggest locks for individual golds are Katie Ledecky, Cameron McEvoy and Sarah Sjostrom. Aussie fans will be relying on McEvoy, the Campbell sisters, Mitch Larkin and Emily Seebohm for individual golds.
Reaching 10 golds is certainly a possibility if McEvoy, Larkin and the Campbells are really on song in Rio.