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2016 AFL season: Round 10 preview

Roar Guru
24th May, 2016
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North Melbourne will be too strong for Richmond in Round 11. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Roar Guru
24th May, 2016
11
2892 Reads

This weekend is the newly named Sir Doug Nicholls Round, and there will be a number of blockbusters that are worth watching as we celebrate Indigenous contributions to the game.

For the third year running, the Sydney Swans will have the honour of kicking off the round at home, where they face the undefeated North Melbourne with the best player afield to be awarded the Goodes-O’Loughlin Medal.

Hawthorn will return to the Gabba for the first time in over eight years when they face the Brisbane Lions, while all eyes will be on the MCG on Saturday night when Essendon and Richmond face off in the annual ‘Dreamtime at the G’ clash.

Here is the full preview to Round 10.

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Sydney Swans versus North Melbourne
Round 10 kicks off with the Sydney Swans welcoming the only undefeated team in the AFL this season, North Melbourne, to what is expected to be a full house at the SCG.

Any fears that the Swans would drop down the ladder following their straight-sets finals exit and the departure of so many experienced players at the end of last season have been unfounded.

Instead of bottoming out like Fremantle appear to be doing this season, John Longmire’s men continue to keep their place in the AFL’s top four, with Lance Franklin and Luke Parker – two absentees from their failed September campaign last year – proving instrumental to the club’s plight so far this season.

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Franklin was all the more impressive against his old club Hawthorn last Friday night, kicking three goals including a bomb from outside 50 as the Swans defeated the Hawks by 14 points at the MCG.

But as clinical as the Swans were last week, they’ll need to be at their absolute best if they are to bring down the team that defeated them in last year’s semi-final, North Melbourne, this Friday night.

The Roos continued their undefeated start to this season alive when they defeated Carlton by 67 points last Saturday night, and as a result are currently enjoying a two-game buffer on the top of the ladder.

But nothing will come for guaranteed if past history involving the Sydney Swans and undefeated teams are anything to go by.

In 2004, the Swans faced a St Kilda side that were enjoying what was, at the time, their best ever start to a season at 10-0, and thanks to the heroics of Leo Barry, who kept Fraser Gehrig goalless, the Swans won by 36 points.

History nearly repeated itself in 2009 when the Swans again faced the Saints, who had won their first 17 games of that season. Though the Swans lost by a point, they came the closest to any side of defeating the Saints in the first 19 rounds.

And in 2000, the Swans (and Melbourne) came the closest to Essendon during their 20-match winning streak to start the 2000 season, losing by only 13 points in Round 14.

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So, can the Swans end the Kangaroos’ undefeated start to the season, or will Brad Scott’s men become the first side since the Geelong Cats in 2011 to start a season 10-0?

Prediction: North Melbourne by seven points.

Brisbane Lions versus Hawthorn
It has been over eight years, but finally Hawthorn will return to the Gabba for the first time since 2008 when they take on an out-of-form Brisbane Lions side this Saturday afternoon.

Possibly affected by the news surrounding their much-loved forward Jarryd Roughead, the Hawks went down to the Sydney Swans by 14 points at the MCG last Friday night and will be looking to bounce back against the 16th-placed Lions.

But they’ll still be without captain Luke Hodge, who is recovering from a knee injury which will keep him out until the club’s Round 15 bye.

A lot has been said about the Lions’ embarrassing effort against Collingwood in Round 8 and while they put in an improved performance against Melbourne last week, they still lost heavily by 63 points.

It will now remain to be seen just how competitive they will be against the Hawks, who have reached five grand finals for four premierships since they last set foot into the Gabba on April 19, 2008.

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The Lions’ record against the Hawks also does not make for good reading, having lost nine of their last ten meetings against the brown and gold, dating back to Round 19, 2007.

Thus, it won’t be of any surprise if the Hawks gain some much needed percentage from their trip to Brisbane.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 50 points.

Melbourne versus Port Adelaide
If any team has improved this year, it’s Melbourne.

After years of mismanagement with its playing list, coaches and the like, the club is reaping the benefits of better planning which will see Paul Roos hand the coaching clipboard over to Simon Goodwin at the end of this season.

After rarely cracking 100 points in the last few seasons, the club has done so in five of their last seven matches, only failing to notch the ton in recent losses to St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs.

Against the Brisbane Lions last week, the team were able to share the ball to good effect, to the point that Nathan Jones and Bernie Vince, their two regular ball-winners, were deployed to half-back by Roos.

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This week they come up against a Port Adelaide side that will definitely be missing Tom Jonas, pending on the result of his judiciary hearing for his crude hit on West Coast’s Andrew Gaff, in Alice Springs.

The Power’s eight-point loss continues their season of inconsistency and coach Ken Hinkley would be frustrated at his side not being able to win on a consistent basis.

Even winning their last six matches against Melbourne won’t count for anything on Saturday afternoon. That being said, the Dees will arrive in Alice Springs full of confidence and should continue their good form here.

Prediction: Melbourne by ten points.

St Kilda versus Fremantle
Fremantle’s season from hell could take another turn when they face St Kilda at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night.

The Dockers’ 0-9 start to the season is their worst since their wooden spoon season of 2001 and currently the worst by a minor premier from the previous season. Already the club has focused on getting games into their younger players with several of their seniors out for prolonged periods.

Defender Alex Pearce last week joined Nat Fyfe and Harley Bennell as among those who will not play again this season after he suffered an ankle injury in the loss to Richmond, further adding to the club’s growing injury toll.

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Captain David Mundy is also no certainty to play as he nurses a calf injury.

The Dockers’ pain is the Saints’ gain, with Alan Richardson’s men banking their third win for the season thanks to a 46-point win over Essendon last week.

It marked a 149-point turnaround from the previous week after they’d been heavily defeated by the West Coast Eagles by 103 points, after which their effort and progress came into question.

They’ll also be banking on a good recent record against the Dockers, winning two of their last three meetings against them, thumping 71 and 58 point victories in 2013 and 2014, both at Etihad Stadium, respectively.

And so, can the Saints continue the Dockers’ season of misery or will Ross Lyon’s men finally get up and kick-start their season rather belatedly?

Prediction: St Kilda by 16 points.

Essendon versus Richmond
Once again the match to watch this weekend will be the annual Dreamtime at the G clash between Essendon and Richmond at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

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This year will mark the 12th edition of the clash, with Essendon holding the slight advantage with six wins to Richmond’s five.

The Bombers and Tigers have started this season slowly for contrasting reasons, with the former club losing eight of their nine matches so far and the Tigers losing six straight between Rounds 2 and 7 before bouncing back with a pair of victories over the Sydney Swans and Fremantle in the past fortnight.

The incentive will be there for John Worsfold’s men to compete, as this will be their biggest home game for the season and probably their most significant since they upset Melbourne by 13 points back in Round 2.

On the other hand, the Tigers will be out to continue their mid-season revival, which has become somewhat of a recurrence in recent years considering how poorly the club have started their seasons under Damien Hardwick.

Most notably, in 2014 they were 3-10 after Round 14 before they stormed back to win their last nine games and snatch eighth place on the ladder by the end of Round 23.

This time, from 3-6 their season is pretty much still alive but if they are to make it 4-6 by the end of Saturday night they must not fall into the same trap as Melbourne did in Round 2 and take the undermanned Bombers lightly.

With captain Trent Cotchin making an impressive return from injury last week with a career-high 39 disposals, the Tigers will be banking on him, plus senior players Alex Rance and Jack Riewoldt, among others, to get them home.

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Prediction: Richmond by 24 points.

Adelaide Crows versus GWS Giants
There could be a sense of deja vu when the Adelaide Crows and GWS Giants face off at the Oval this Saturday night in what shapes as a genuine blockbuster.

This time two years ago, the Gold Coast Suns travelled to the City of Churches sitting third on the ladder with a 7-2 record, and having won their previous six matches, the latest of which was a victory over the Western Bulldogs at home.

Their six-match winning streak would eventually end after losing to the Crows by 32 points, and it would trigger a form slump which would see the club crash to 12th place by the end of the season.

Now it’s the Giants who will travel to Adelaide with almost the same identical records that the Suns had entering the clash with the Crows two years ago, and will be hoping to continue on their best ever start to an AFL season.

Leon Cameron’s men held off the challenge of the Western Bulldogs at home last week to win by 25 points and maintain third place on the ladder, ahead of intracity rivals the Sydney Swans, on percentage.

In doing that they ticked off the first of four tough challenges which will serve as a measure of just how far they have come since entering the competition in 2012, with the clash against the Crows set to test their mettle, as will a road trip to Geelong and a home showdown against the Swans in the fortnight thereafter.

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The Crows got their season back into the black by thrashing the Suns on the Gold Coast last week, and even though they are at home this Saturday night, nothing will come guaranteed for Don Pyke’s men.

In saying that, the Giants won their previous meeting by 24 points just over twelve months ago, and their last trip to the Oval ended in a 21-point loss to Port Adelaide late last season.

Even so, the home ground advantage should get the Crows home here.

Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 30 points.

Carlton versus Geelong Cats
After four straight victories, Carlton’s resurgence came crashing to a sudden halt when it lost to the undefeated North Melbourne by 67 points at Etihad Stadium last Saturday night.

It put to an end the club’s good recent form, in which they defeated Fremantle, Essendon, Collingwood and Port Adelaide by four, 15, 15 and two points respectively.

While not impressive, it could be some indication yet that the Blues are finally starting to buy into what Brendon Bolton is trying toinstilinto a club that has gone through more lows than highs since the turn of the millennium.

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This Sunday they face the Geelong Cats, against whom they have lost their last seven matches and lost their previous meeting by 78 points, a result which indirectly fast-tracked the sacking of then-coach Mick Malthouse.

Having started the season with seven wins and one loss, the Cats were simply outclassed by Collingwood at the MCG last Saturday afternoon and they will look to bounce back, and do it rather quickly with matches against the GWS Giants, North Melbourne and Western Bulldogs to follow in the three weeks thereafter.

Having starred against his old side the Adelaide Crows in Adelaide in Round 8, it was suggested by commentators that Patrick Dangerfield suffered a letdown against the Pies, and so will be out to bounce back this Sunday.

Once again he, along with Joel Selwood and Tom Hawkins will be the keys to the Cats moving to 8-2 for the season.

Prediction: Geelong Cats by 40 points.

Collingwood versus Western Bulldogs
Sunday’s match between Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs shapes as one of the more interesting matches of the round, for a variety of reasons.

Having failed to live up to pre-season expectations, the Pies produced one of their more impressive performances this season to stun the highly-fancied Geelong Cats by 24 points last week, on the back of a seven-goals-to-nil opening quarter.

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It followed on from their 78-point destruction of the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba the previous round and it could be a good indication that Nathan Buckley’s men are finally starting to climb up the ladder.

This Sunday they face the Western Bulldogs who will be playing away from Etihad Stadium for the third consecutive week, after having started their season with seven straight matches (for five victories) at the Docklands venue.

After they defeated Melbourne by 32 points last week, Luke Beveridge’s men crashed to a 25-point loss to the GWS Giants last week, their cause not being helped by the absence of suspended pair Matthew Boyd and Jack Redpath.

While the pair return, Lin Jong appears set for a fortnight on the sidelines following his high hit on Giants defender Matt Buntine last week, an incident that will further test Beveridge’s patience and the Dogs defence against the likes of Alex Fasolo, Jesse White and Mason Cox.

While the Bulldogs are in good form, and have won their last two against Collingwood, the Pies’ impressive last fortnight is simply too hard to ignore, and the likelihood of a pro-Collingwood crowd at the MCG should bank them a third straight victory.

Prediction: Collingwood by 16 points.

West Coast Eagles versus Gold Coast Suns
Things could get a whole lot worse for the Gold Coast Suns when they trek west for the second time this season to face the West Coast Eagles at Domain Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

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Amidst a horror injury toll, the Suns crashed to their sixth consecutive loss when they lost to the Adelaide Crows by 75 points at home on Sunday, and not even the imminent return of captain Gary Ablett Jr or defender Steven May will help their cause against the Eagles.

Adam Simpson’s men won their first match on the road for this season when they defeated Port Adelaide by eight points last week, the victory being highlighted by seven goals to Josh Kennedy.

The reigning Coleman Medallist appears set for another huge showing against the Suns, who as mentioned before will have Steven May back from his five-game suspension incurred from his huge bump on Brisbane’s Stefan Martin in Round 4.

Kennedy aside, the Suns will also face the near-impossible task of curtailing the pair of Matt Priddis and Nic Naitanui, while Andrew Gaff’s availability hangs in the balance after he ended up on the wrong end of a crude hit from Port’s Tom Jonas last week.

Though the last meeting between the two sides ended in a draw on the Gold Coast, their last meeting in Perth ended in a 92-point win for the Eagles, and given the Suns’ current woes, a repeat or a similar result could be on the cards.

Prediction: West Coast Eagles by 75 points.

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