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If you’re an Australian rugby fan looking for a stellar performance by a home side in the play-offs this year, it’s time to rule the Rebels out.
The Rebels aren’t yet mathematically out of the equation, but their disappointing loss to the Chiefs on the weekend, where they were never really in with a sniff, on the back of an important loss against the Brumbies suggests they are a step below finals ready. They have too many flaws to overcome this year.
We need to hope either the Brumbies or Waratahs find enough form to make a noise at the pointy end.
As they currently hold a one-point lead in the Australian conference, meaning they’re absurdly in pole position to host a home final, the Waratahs are to be considered first for Aussie finals hopes.
Is it possible for the Waratahs to improve enough to trouble anyone come finals time? Their thrashing at the hands of the Crusaders suggests they have a long way to go on that front, but a comfortable victory against the Bulls – admittedly below their best – provides some hope.
The heart of the Waratahs weakness is the heart of any rugby team – the forward pack. The back row isn’t really the issue, with Michael Hooper, Jed Holloway, Dave Dennis (when he’s been able to play there) and Wycliff Palu all good enough for this level. The problem has been in the tight five.
It says a lot that a form Wallabies tight five now shouldn’t include any Waratahs in it. Tatafu Polota-Nau would probably snag a bench spot, and Will Skelton might still for the sake of continuity, but wouldn’t deserve it on form.
The tight five have struggled to hold the scrum together, win physical battles and create go-forward in the midfield.
Behind them, Bernard Foley has worked his way into form, Israel Folau is starting to make a real go of outside centre, and the other role players are doing their job.
If the pack can work things out over the June Test break – and not many of them should be on Wallaby duty – they might provide just enough of a platform for the Waratahs to launch at the finals.
But at the moment, the lead singers and guitarists in the backline are being let down by the drums and bass in the rhythm section.
What could the Brumbies do to shake some cages if they sneak in?
Firstly, there’s a better than even chance the Brumbies will make it over the Waratahs. The Brumbies’ remaining fixtures are against Sunwolves, Reds, Blues and Force. The Waratahs have a murderers row of Chiefs, Sunwolves (slightly less murder-y), Hurricanes and Blues.
I’d back the Brumbies to chase down the two points they need to lead the conference.
Considering the schedule, it is worth noting both Australian finals hopefuls play the Blues in the final two rounds, and the Auckland side are already tied with the Brumbies, and only one point behind the Waratahs.
My prediction a couple of weeks ago that the Blues may end up with more competition points than any Australian team is starting to come into focus. That very real prospect would make it all five New Zealand teams ahead of a single Australian on in competition points – despite playing more games in their own group, which is the toughest in the competition.
Try not to cry.
Back to the Brumbies. So far this year they’ve been the steady, hard-working, professional outfit in the Australian conference. They’ve done enough to win most of their intra-group matches comfortably. Basically, they’ve won the games they were meant to.
What they’ve been lacking against the higher quality sides, particularly from New Zealand, is some speed and midfield direction.
At times, the Brumbies find an extra gear and really go for the jugular when trying to score a try or knock a defensive line backwards. Just two or three years ago that approach was a winning one in Super Rugby – the best teams were able to solidly plod and then accelerate to force the defence to crack or give up a penalty.
Now the best teams play at a relentlessly high pace, especially through the forwards. Players hit the ball at speed, flat to the advantage line and recycle it quickly as a rule, rather than a point of emphasis.
To break down the better defensive lines and tire out the fitter sides over the 80 minutes, the Brumbies need to add this to their repertoire. They can add their own flavor to that model by using Tomas Cubelli’s prodigious running talent to keep the ball moving. Add Stephen Moore and David Pocock’s willingness to pass the pill and they have some of the cogs to keep the rapid attack moving.
Out wider, the Brumbies have been missing Joe Tomane’s power and speed, and Matt Toomua’s guidance. Christian Lealiifano might be a good bet to get some time at 12 for the Wallabies now Matt Toomua is out. Back in the ACT, they’ll also need him standing up and finding ways to score. With less strike power out wide, Lealiifano should be working close to the line in the mould of a Bernard Foley 10 to help the Brumbies roll quickly forward, rather than hit home runs out wide.
Yes, I am aware looking for ways for either of these teams to make a finals run is the definition of rose-coloured glasses. But both the Brumbies and Waratahs, despite being deeply flawed, have a few raw ingredients that could be fashioned into the kind of blunt instrument needed to bludgeon through at least one finals round.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.