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Two very disturbing outcomes from the Round 13 tipping panel last week: I picked the card, and the bloody Crowd now leads overall.
Clearly, last week was an easy round to pick; I mean, look at all the green here!
It’s the first time in the two or so years I’ve been putting the tipping panel together that we’ve seen three perfect cards in the same week.
So well done, Paddy, and well done you lot. And as tempting as it would be to give it to Digger for his Force pick – despite it very nearly coming off – we’re all above that sort of thing, obviously.
EVERY SUPER RUGBY GAME, LIVE ON FOXTEL
Rather surprisingly, given my general tipping inconsistency in 2016, I’ve managed to hold the honour for Round 14, and it’s my Big Super Rugby Question this week, too. Basically, this week is all homage to me…
Last Week: Brett, Paddy, and The Crowd 7, Harry 6, Digger 5.
Brett McKay: Undoubtedly, Round 14 is a tougher week to tip. Several quality games could go either way and several potentially ordinary games could go either way too.
Ordinarily, I’d be worried about picking half the away teams, too, but such is the wacky 2016 season that home teams have won only 53 of the 100 games played across the 13 rounds so far.
Friday: The Highlanders are humming along nicely; one out, one back, if you like. They’ll be fresh after the bye, and after knocking off the Crusaders in Round 12 will fear no-one. Plus, the last time they were in Wellington they went OK, too.
The Waratahs found out just how tough Life After Kurtley (LAK) is going to be, and suddenly their backrow looks a lot less mobile; Chiefs to take this one. And if no-one goes to a rugby game, did it ever happen at all? I don’t really know why you’d go watch the Kings and Jaguares; tipping it’s not much easier. Jaguares, just.
Saturday: Crusaders shouldn’t have too much trouble with the Blues, and likewise the Brumbies with the Sunwolves. I am, however, looking forward to seeing the Moondogs in the flesh from my plastic chair on the sideline. Stormers over the Cheetahs, or they might as well just forfeit everything after June.
The Bulls-Lions in any other week might be the match of the round, and while I was tempted to go against my predition last week with Elton Jantjies out for the interim, the Lions are a better side all round.
Sunday: Rebels by literally heaps. So dire is the Force’s flyhalf stocks right now – Ian Prior and Luke Burton are now both out, too – that if you’re a Force fan living in Melbourne with some idea of what to do from No.10, you probably should bring your boots.
Tips: Highlanders, Chiefs, Jaguares, Crusaders, Brumbies, Stormers, Lions, and Rebels.
Paddy Effeney: “I always tip the Hurricanes against the Highlanders. I’m always wrong. Hopefully this will be no exception.
“I’m going to take a few punts this week, one of them being the Waratahs over the Chiefs. I’ve got a feeling with Rob Horne they can actually bend the line, and possibly even get it done at home.
“Crusaders, Brumbies and Stormers all pick themselves, and the home ground factor gets the Bulls and the Rebels my tips.”
Tips: Hurricanes, Waratahs, Jaguares, Crusaders, Brumbies, Stormers, Bulls, and Rebels.
Harry Jones: “By this stage in the season, teams are what they are. All of them have lost a few players, all have suffered referee or TMO malpractice, none are perfect, and habits are too engrained to reverse completely. Confidence is much easier to retain than regain.
“So my picks will be straight up the middle like a Jason Day drive on Sunday. I believe I have one tip that will, however, allow me to catch The Crowd.
“The calm Hurricanes will solve the zany Highlander kicking gambit, in the swirling winds of the Cake Tin. The Waratahs are a good team, but the Chiefs are better.
“The Jaguares will devour the Kings; swallow and spit them out on the sad PE turf. They benefited from Berry’s whistle last week: 12 penalties against the South African team at home; only five against the bite-less Argentines. If Elton Jantjies and Ruan Combrinck had made their kicks, the Argentines would have shipped 70 points. But the Kings are rugby Xanex. Play them to feel better.
“The Crusaders, Brumbies, and Stormers will roll, but the Stormers will have to work. A Cheetahs derby is not a walk in the park. The Rebel-Force derby will similarly be a tough scrap, but the Melbourne lads have more to play for.
“The Bulls will beat the Lions. I base that on nothing, really. I just have a feeling. I feel Lappies Labuschagne (23 tackles attempted, 23 tackles made, most of them on or behind the gain line) and his forward mates are hitting their straps just in time. Also, man for man, the Bulls believe they are better than the Lions, because they were selected ahead of the Lions at schools level, and professional, too. But that will be a hell of a match.
“I am the least sure of the inconsistent Canes and limited Bulls.”
Tips: Hurricanes, Chiefs, Jaguares, Crusaders, Brumbies, Stormers, Bulls, and Rebels.
Diggercane: “Canes by, well, probably not plenty. But one would be plenty enough as we have the back three to deal with the Highlanders’ kicking game. (Yeah, yeah, sounds good to me anyway.)
“Chiefs to win in Sydney and further dent the Waratahs’ hopes as they are a more cohesive unit, and while I think the Jaguares should get over the Kings, I am unconvinced if they are hungry enough on the road.
“Crusaders, even at Eden ‘Tragic’ Park, because the Blues simply inspire no confidence, while the Brumbies and Stormers should make chook feed over their respective Japanese and South African dog/cat opponents.
“Bulls versus Lions shapes as a cracker and I am going to jump on the Lions bandwagon for this one as they are very likeable. The Rebels should account for the Force who can’t seem to win games even when presented with a silver spoon and some nuts on a brown platter.”
Tips: Hurricanes, Chiefs, Jaguares, Crusaders, Brumbies, Stormers, Lions, and Rebels.
The Big Super Rugby Question (from Brett): Of the remaining games over the last four rounds, which one stands out to you as being a likely playoffs-influencing game?
Digger: “So many potentially big games coming up but the one that stands out to me like a dog’s balls would be the Crusaders and Chiefs in Suva.
“With both of these sides neck and neck for outright honours in the New Zealand Conference, this game is the potential tie-breaker for not only the Kiwi conference but likely the most points across all conferences – meaning a home match across all the finals matches if they are good enough.”
Harry: “The South African conferences are poised in a teeter-tottering balance of power with even a losing bonus point perhaps the difference between the third playoff qualifier and the unlucky fourth.
“Thus, I will circle the July 3 derby in Durban between the improving Sharks (playing a hard brand of South African rugby; so salty and tasty and biltong-flavoured that Leo Senatore’s mouth is watering) and the indefatigable Lions, who are channelling their inner Kiwi.
“By that time, the picture will probably be clear enough that the result will virtually resolve the issue. Jantjies’ broken finger may throw a spanner in the works, but I think the tilt at Kings Park is the one to watch.
“Senatore might say “buen provecho!” or “finger looking good!”, Leo Dos (his nickname) recommends a robust Malbec to pair with Shark meat; his friend Keegan Daniel prefers a dry Sauvignon Blanc, the taste feels like a gentle choke, but it’s clean and light.”
Brett: This one came up a bit in discussion following last week’s run home column. Round 16 – Saturday July 9, Sydney: Waratahs versus Hurricanes.
Results even this weekend can impact the importance of this clash six weeks away. The Waratahs simply need to keep winning, with the Brumbies’ run home giving them definite access to the Australian Conference lead. Likewise, the Hurricanes need to keep winning just to keep pace with their Kiwi contempories.
Of the two teams, the Canes probably have the harder draw, meaning that losses can hurt them more. If they happened to drop a couple of games that they probably should win, and if the Waratahs can find a bit of form and go on a bit of a run, this game in Round 16 could decide who takes the last trans-Tasman wildcard spot.
And there are so many variables that could play out between now and then, too. How both teams look after the June internationals will be crucial. I gave the game to the Hurricanes in last week’s predictions, but I suspect it will be a lot harder to pick in the week leading in.
Paddy: “With the Waratahs holding a very slender lead in the Australian Conference, I’m seeing their two huge games against the Chiefs and the Hurricanes as the ones that will determine the final standings.
“Brumbies have the distinctly softer draw to finish off, so hold the aces. But if the boys in sky blue were to somehow scrape wins, then it would make things a whole lot more interesting.”
The Summary
The Crowd has spoken…
A pretty simple selection for the Crowd this week, it seems, with five picks pulling more than 90% of the vote. And the Highlanders and Lions have emerged in the big derby matches.
61.7% Highlanders
83.7% Chiefs
92.4% Jaguares
96.4% Crusaders
98.2% Brumbies
92.7% Stormers
60.2% Lions
95.4% Rebels