Race 7 at Doomben on Saturday (4.00pm AEST) sees the running of the 2016 Doomben 10000 at a distance of 1350m.

Originally named the Doomben Newmarket when first staged in 1933, it later became known as the Doomben 10000 in 1947. At that time it was the richest sprint race in Australia worth 10000 pounds, so was given that title.

The name was shelved in 1980 in favour of The Rothmans 100000, given the prizemoney had swelled somewhat in the ensuing period. However in 1993 sanity prevailed with the race reverting back to its post war title.

In 1980 it attained Group 1 status, and in 1997 became a Weight For Age (Group 1) race replacing it’s earlier handicap status. That decision was probably a good one as it ensured the race would continue to attract high-quality sprinters, with Takeover Target and Apache Cat probably the best winning examples of that in recent times. Other notable winners in my lifetime include Maybe Mahal, Manikato, Chief De Beers (Doomben Champion!) and Falvelon. The latter two horses won this race twice.

This year the race is slightly down in numbers and perhaps quality, but it’s going to be a competitive race with a number of winning chances.

Below is a list of the past 13 winners of the race, followed by Age, Gender, Barrier position, Lead Up run, Days since last run, placing at last three starts, early position in running, and starting price. It’s quite interesting to note that quite a few of them were better horses at 1200m, and struggled a little to win at 1400m (Spirit Of Boom, Beaded, Undue, Red Oog), but found the 1350m of this race quite manageable. Sea Siren hadn’t beyond 1200m coming into the race, and even though Bel Esprit had run second in the 2002 Caulfield Guineas at a mile, he hadn’t actually won a race beyond 1100m. Really top class 1200m horses often win this race, probably because they can find a prominent position early, which is often a positive around the tight Doomben circuit.

2015 Boban – 5g (7) 14th Chipping Norton Stakes W/Farm 84 days 30X (15-14) $17
2014 Spirit of Boom – 6h- (2)-2nd BTC Cup 1200m 14 days 122 (6-7) $4.75
2013 Epaulette – 3c -(4)- 6th All Aged Stakes 1400m Randwick – 28 days- x26- (8-10)- $6
2012 Sea Siren – 3f (7-) 1st BTC Cup 1200m- 14 days 112- (2-4)- $4.25
2011 Beaded – 5m – (5)- 2nd -Sportingbet Classic 1200m Morphettville- 63 days- 132- (3-3)- $3.25
2010 Hot Danish – 6m (2)- 1st All Aged Stakes Randwick 1400m- 35 days 121- (6-5)- $5.50 (EF)
2009 Apache Cat – 6g – (7)- 3rd BTC Cup 1200m- 14 days- 133- (4-2) $3.50
2008 Apache Cat – 5g- (3)- 1st BTC Cup 1200m 14 days x11- (3-2)- $2.70
2007 Takeover Target – 7g- (7) -2nd BTC Cup 1200m -14 days- x52 -(3-3)- $3.50
2006 Undue – 4g – (1)- 9th BTC Cup 1200m 14 days 0x9 (6-7) $41
2005 Red Oog – 5g – (1)- 7th BTC Cup 1200m -14 days 137 (7-9) $17 $13
2004 Super Elegant – 6g – (4) 1st Goodwood Handicap 1200m M/Ville- 7 days- x21 -(2-3)- $8
2003 Bel Esprit – 3c -(4) -3rd TJ Smith Stakes Randwick- 1200m- 14 days- 273- (1-2)- $13

Pertinent Statistics (added and totalled in table below);
A) 13/13 started from 1-7 barrier- 3 Points
B) 13/13 had won or placed in a Group 1 race in their career prior to winning this- 3 Points
C) 13/13 started in a Group 1 race last start- 2 points
D) 13/13 had campaigned in Sydney or Melbourne this Calendar year- 2 points
E) 10/13 raced at 1200m last start- 2 Points
F) 12/13 started at Doomben, Randwick, or Morphetville last start- 2 points
G) 9/13 either won or placed last start- 2 points
6/13 ran in the placings at last 3 starts- + 1 point
H) 11/13 winners were placed 1-6 early in race- 2 points
7/13 were placed 1-3 early in race- + 1 point
I) 9/13 had 7- 14 days between runs- 2 points
J) 9/13 either 5 or 6 years of age. Only one 4yo has won in the past 13 years. The last 4yo mare to win was in 1994 (Flitter).

Weather and track condition:
At the time of writing the Track was rated a Good 4 and it should firm further by Saturday with the glorious weather in Brisbane set to continue into the weekend and beyond. I’d be looking at those horses who prefer the harder tracks, not that too many in this year’s race look to be disadvantaged in that regard.

The Field:

Race Tempo:

Only a small field engaged and there appears to be four on pace runners. Either Two Blue or Divine Centuri will lead from Hooked, with Dothraki sitting just behind those three horses. Fell Swoop should hold a position in the first five horses early, and Music Magnate and Scarlet Billows should also be prominent. Charlie Boy, Azkadellia and Delectation looks to be the three horses who will be rearward, but should get their chance to shine in a truly run race, barring any on pace and/or leader bias. The first three placegetters last year were rearward in the race which was somewhat of an historical anomaly in recent times. The fact we have only ten runners this year makes it slightly more likely that a horse closer to the pace will prevail.

Runner Analysis and assessed price:

DELECTATION 4g- It was an improved run from him last start in the BTC Cup (with a Tongue Tie applied) which had back me next time written all over it. The thing is though he can be a bit hit and miss, and I’m yet to be convinced he is a better horse beyond 1200m than he is at that distance, He failed in this race last year and failed at his only run at 1400m. And just because he was making good ground at 1200m last start, doesn’t mean he can do so with 150m more distance. You either possess the stamina or you don’t. Nevertheless, he is a top class 1200m horse, and that type does often handle the 1350m around Doomben in this race (as mentioned above). He would seem better suited on a bigger track (2 wins Randwick, 1 win Flemington) but should get his chance to disprove that theory with a genuine speed likely to prevail up front. $6.50

FELL SWOOP 4g- He almost certainly would have won the BTC Cup two weeks ago from an inside barrier. I think a lot of people will try to tell you that Delectation finished off better, but I reckon it’s pretty evident this horse did. And he managed to do that off a 3 wide run for most of the race. This horse replicates the same performance race after race, and whilst he probably isn’t in the top echelon of sprinters yet in this country, he certainly isn’t far off. He is another horse yet to win beyond 1200m but he has two siblings that have won at 1350m and beyond, and at least one jockey has stated in recent times that he is looking for more distance. The one negative you could out forward is the amount of racing he has had since February (5 starts), and whether he has recovered from what might have been a gutbusting run last start. That’s hard to ascertain though so I have to take him at face value and nominate him as the horse to beat from the inside barrier, which should afford him every possible chance. From barriers 1-3 in his career thus far he is 3/3 and from barriers 1through 6 he is 5/6. Most of his defeats have been from barrier 7 or wider (1-6), which indirectly tells us he is more of a midfield positioning type of horse who benefits from getting some cover in his races. $4

DOTHRAKI 5g- I think if you peruse the historical data above he would be clearly top pick. He is a horse that has won at 1400m as a three-year-old, but he hasn’t won beyond 1200m in three attempts since, and might even be a better horse at below 1200m.. He loomed up to win the BTC Cup at that distance last start, but was outfought late on, after a good run in transit. Personally, I would have expected him closer to the lead in that race than he ended up, but in all likelihood it wouldn’t have changed the result. His barrier is a little awkward in a Ten horse field but he should have the speed to allow himself an economical run in the race. He might be fitter for his last run which came off a 42-day break, and he is probably going to look the winner in the early part of the straight. Whether he can see out the distance against this class of horse is my biggest concern. $7

HOOKED 5h- This five-year-old Stallion is the wildcard of the race, and the fresh horse on the scene, having not run since last October. He did win first up in the Tramway at Randwick (1400m) last preparation though and it’s never an easy task for a sprinter/miler to win a handicap race at that distance first up. He was less than a length from Kermadec in the 2014 George Ryder Stakes won by Japanese horse Real Impact, which is probably good enough form to suggest he could win a Weight For Age race of this calibre.

His on pace ability should be an asset around this tight circuit, and he could get first crack at the leader coming into the straight. He has had three barrier trials leading in and that should have given him the fitness grounding to be competitive. No doubt he is twice the price he should be in early Fixed Odds markets, despite the fact he might be at his absolute best with some give in the track. $10

CHARLIE BOY 5g- Nearly won this race last year when a narrow second to Boban but I’m just not sure what to make of his poor run in the BTC Cup. He did very little in that race despite looking to be a live chance. Perhaps he was just run off his feet, and there is no doubt he is better suited at this distance than the 1200m of last start.

There was some stable talk that he was much better off being kept fresh, and that was the case coming into that run. Perhaps that factor was little overdone and he needed that race to top him off. I’d be expecting an improvement from him, and a win wouldn’t overly surprise, but it’s worth keeping in mind that all of his wins have been first and second up. $16

MUSIC MAGNATE 4g- Looks to have had a preparation timed to the minute for this race and he is 2/2 at 1400m. The question on most punter would ask is whether he is up to winning in this class? I’d have to say he probably is. Two starts ago he beat home Fast ‘N’ Rocking (albeit 2kg weight relief) who ran a creditable fourth last week in the Goodwood at Morphettville.

Six starts ago he was beaten half a length by Fell Swoop conceding that horse 0.5kg, and was little unlucky being wide for most of that race. Seven starts ago he was narrowly beaten by the filly Peeping conceding her 2kg in a three-year-old race. That mare won the Coolmore this Autumn beating home Azkadellia and conceding that mare 0.5kg.

In this race Music Magnate concedes Azkadellia 2kg which still suggests he could beat her . I would have preferred him to have drawn a little bit better, as he is the sort of horse that can get posted wide in a race. In recent starts he has been ridden right on the pace, but he is very versatile, and taking a trail in this race could prove to be very beneficial, providing he gets some cover. He has had eleven starts for five wins, and is yet to be beaten more than 2 lengths in any of them. I’d be expecting another copybook run here, and he can go very close to winning. It could be a very good few months for his sire Written Tycoon who won the Golden Slipper in April with his two-year-old son Capitalist. $5.00

AZKADELLIA 4m- Is an early firm favourite for the race but I’m not sure it’s totally warranted despite the fact she is a top class mare. She is going to get back in the race, and her wide barrier doesn’t look a great historical fit. She will prefer the bigger track at Eagle Farm in the Stradbroke, and this is her first test at Weight For Age Group one level against all sexes. She does possess an electric turn of foot though, is very genuine, and the distance is perfect for her coming in fresh to this race It’s really a matter of what price you want to take considering historical factors, her racing pattern, and the fact that she doesn’t actually have a class edge on some of these horses. She hasn’t yet won against male horses in an Open class race, so given the negatives I think her $3 price is way too short. $5.50

TWO BLUE 7m- ran a very respectable fourth in the BTC Cup after going very fast and opening up a decent lead into the straight. Her record at this distance rang reads 1-10-2/17 though so this looks a stiffer task again for her. Hard to see her prevailing, but she is likely to give her backers a good sight for the majority of the race. $31

SCARLET BILLOWS 5m- This is her first anti-clockwise direction start, and she comes off a very disappointing run in the Sangster Stakes for mares in Adelaide when she was very well backed. She did run a decent 3 Length fourth at Weight For Age in the Willaim Reid Stakes back in March, but she did have every possible chance in that race so does look a little bereft of the class needed to win this. Darren Weir trains though, so anything is possible, and given the last run you have to wonder why he has brought her to Brisbane. Perhaps there is a positive that I’m not aware of? A Winter in Brisbane definitely won’t do her any harm regardless of her performances. $31

DIVINE CENTURI 3f- She has four wins and two placings from six career starts, and is a very progressive three-year-old filly, but this really is a herculian task for her. Taking on Group one gallopers is a massive step up in class, and she too is yet to win beyond 1200m. It will be interesting to see how she copes, but it’s hard to see her getting into the first four placings in this. $41

Conclusion and Bet Suggestion;

Despite the fact that four-year-olds have a poor recent record in this race I’ve found it hard not to settle on two of them to fight out the finish- FELL SWOOP and MUSIC MAGNATE. Both are as honest as the day is long and should acquit themselves very well. Utilising the historical facts above I think you could separate them on the basis that Fell Swoop comes out of a Group One race, whereas Music Magnate doesn’t. He is also drawn better and has less chance of being posted wide. Having said that I’d be hopeful of Music Magnate getting some cover because most of the speed in the race has drawn outside him. Had they drawn inside then he would probably be more at risk of covering extra ground. He comes into the race at the perfect time of his preparation, whereas Fell Swoop has had a lot of racing. And he is a better price. The negative is he hasn’t been exposed at Weight For Age level yet and Fell Swoop has twice, to good effect.

The best longshot definitely appears to be Hooked. If he is on song he can hit the lead straightening and be very hard to run down. Whether he can handle a likely fast speed up front without a run under his belt is the question but you can get better than $20 to find out. Outside of that trio it’s very hard to separate the likes of Azkadellia, Delectation and Dothraki and if you like your historical precedents then the latter horse is most likely the one to beat. Charlie Boy could surprise off a very ordinary run last start. He is in a good stable who probably wouldn’t be targeting this race if they didn’t think he was capable of turning things around. My Top 4.

1. FELL SWOOP
2. Music Magnate
3. Hooked
4. Azkadellia

My investment strategy is to bet Fell Swoop and Music Magnate at a 2:1 ratio, have a small Each Way bet on Hooked, and box that Trio in a Trifecta.