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Doomben 10,000: Group 1 preview and tips

Doomben hosts another weekend of racing. (AAP Image/Dan Peled)
Expert
26th May, 2016
5

The Adelaide Group 1 carnival is over, and now Queensland racing gets their chance to shine in the sun they keep telling us they always get. The Stradbroke, Brisbane’s most famous race, is only two weeks away and that means it’s Doomben 10,000 time.

This race is almost always won by a horse that is proven to be Group 1 competitive in the Melbourne spring or Sydney autumn, and only one of the last nine winners has had their maiden Group 1 victory in this race. That was Beaded in 2011, and she had been Group 1 placed four times before that.

Fell Swoop may well be the Beaded of this year’s edition, given he has a similar record and winning strike rate (15: 9-3-0) to what she did before she won this race (19: 9-4-5).

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Fell Swoop also has Group 1 placings to his name, in the TJ Smith and Oakleigh Plate earlier this campaign, to suggest class won’t be an issue for a Queensland Group 1, and he could easily have finished top three last start in the BTC Cup too, if not won it.

The 1350m distance will be a query for him though, given he has never raced beyond 1200m before, but the inside draw is in his favour there, so he shouldn’t have to work in the first half of the race, and won’t be exposed to a hard run like he was two weeks ago.

Malaguerra won the BTC Cup, but isn’t here. Dothraki, who went down to him in a photo after being backed off the map on the day, will be running, and he’ll be hard to beat once more, especially given he was six weeks into that run.

Dothraki hasn’t won beyond 1200m since taking out a 1400m race on Emirates Stakes day as a three-year-old, but he did beat Suavito into second that day, which is a handy scalp since she went on to become a dual Group 1 winner at the distance.

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Others from the BTC Cup are Delectation, who has an eight next to his run in the formguide, but who was much better than that, and he looks ready to produce his best now, but can he get the trip? His only two starts beyond 1200m have been at a high level, when midfield in last year’s Stradbroke and a tailed off last in the Hobartville Stakes fifteen months ago.

Two Blue ran a fantastic fourth and is a seven year old mare in career best form and getting better with each run, which is a wonderful achievement by trainer Kristen Buchanan. She’ll be game again, will lead them along, and could pinch the race if the others are sleeping, but probably needs a few drops of rain.

Charlie Boy wasn’t disgraced when 12th in the BTC Cup, but he’s too hard to catch, and it usually isn’t at this level.

Music Magnate may sit just behind the leader, which is his usual winning formula, but he has to prove himself outside of B-grade now. There was nothing between he and Fell Swoop in a benchmark 85 back in August, which does tie him in nicely.

We know Fell Swoop has progressed well beyond that, but has Music Magnate matched him? We’re going to find out, but they do appear a bit close together in the odds even if Music Magnate is better credentialled at this distance range.

Azkadellia is our favourite, which is somewhat understandable given she is the second best mare in the land, but she’s a long way from bullet proof given her racing pattern and the fact that she’s probably up to a length worse on firm ground at this level.

She obviously got class, but $2.80 is no price, and you should get $4 or more on the day if you think she can round them all up at Doomben. She’ll be giving them a start off what may be a moderate tempo to do it.

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Hooked is an interesting runner at odds. His last two preps has seen him finish seventh or worse in six of his eight runs, but his best two performances have been first-up. Last prep he won the Tramway over the respectable likes of Lucia Valentina, Hauraki, Ecuador and Rudy, and the prep before he was 1.5 lengths fourth in the Canterbury at Group 1 WFA.

If he produces either of those runs here, he’s well in the race, and a legitimate danger, and he has run top five in seven Group 1’s, so he’s usually not far away.

Scarlett Billows is a good mare coming off a bad run, and Darren Weir is winning everything at the moment, so she will have some first four claims. Divine Centauri is the lone three year old in the race, and has been up for a while, so it will be interesting to see how competitive she can be. Always good to see an untapped youngster have a shy at the stumps.

The tempo shouldn’t be furious, given Two Blue will lead uncontested, but there will be a fight for position behind her, and if they can’t all slot in something may press forward to add some speed into the race. Azkadellia will have it all to do for favourite punters, and if she does it will be some win.

Selections: 1.Dothraki 2.Fell Swoop 3.Hooked 4.Azkadellia

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