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Kevin Walters will have a different Maroon 17 in twelve months’ time as he marches out the old guard and finally gets to put his very own imprimatur on his team as head coach.
As a rookie, Kevvie was never going to rock the boat after he had just come in after ‘Bradman’, and for him to make team selection changes after Mal Meninga had just won nine of the last ten Origin series’ would have been coaching suicide.
He has done exactly what Meninga would have done and if he loses he can say it would have had the same result with his predecessor.
State of Origin is not about coaching; it is about getting the selection process correct, providing a positive environment and keeping the players happy and healthy. NSW coach Laurie Daley has never coached at NRL level and Mal Meninga, despite his resume, would struggle to get an NRL head coaching job today.
2017 will be a new look Maroons 17 with the real Walters fingerprints; it was never going to happen this year as the ageing Maroons are last start 52-6 winners and the majority of the likely debutants are on ‘bad boy’ suspensions.
While this lease on life is the ideal motivator for the Maroons with their heads on the chopping block, it also means that Queensland will field a team described twelve months ago as old.
There is no argument that many of the Origin greats like Greg Inglis, Cam Smith, Cooper Cronk, Matt Scott, Nate Myles, Sam Thaiday, Corey Parker and Aidan Guerra have reached their playing peak, they are still outstanding, some even still great, but they will not get any better or younger.
The biggest concern is Myles who was even relegated to a bench spot by his club Manly last week. His form this season has been poor while the other veterans have earned the right to run out next Wednesday night in Sydney. We know what they can do and we know they will deliver, they always do.
They are Queenslanders.
So what will Walters do next year?
Regardless of the result, it is going to be difficult to deny consideration to Cameron Munster, Dale Copley, Valentine Holmes, Ben Hunt, Ethan Lowe, Tim Glasby, Anthony Milford and Dylan Napa while even the immortal in waiting Cam Smith will have pressure from Jake Granville and the Roosters Jake Friend.
Will Chambers will also be fit and available for return.
Walters may also have to make a call on another immortal in waiting Billy Slater, who is acting as one of his assistant coaches at the moment as he recovers from an injured shoulder.
If Johnathan Thurston and Cronk both retire from Origin after Game 3 this year then Michael Morgan, the current playmaker off the bench, is not certain to assume he will be a starter.
It will be a surprise if Walters does not favour the Broncos pairing of Ben Hunt and Anthony Milford who he worked directly with last year as assistant to Wayne Bennett. Whatever happens they cannot go another series without the freakish Milford who is rated in the world’s top three players.
A sometime in the future Maroons team.
1. Valentine Holmes
2. Corey Oates
3. Cameron Munster
4. Dale Copley
5. Jordan Kahu
6. Anthony Milford
7. Ben Hunt
8. Dylan Napa
9. Jake Friend
10. Josh McGuire
11. Jaydn S’ua
12. Tevita Pangai Junior
13. Jai Arrow
Look at the immense quality of the Queenslanders who are not playing this year and the $10 million Daly Cherry-Evans has not received a mention.
So why have the Maroons been so dominant for so long?
There is not a short answer, but it can be summed up in a few words; Thurston and poor selections.
One man can make a difference especially when he is Thurston and I have no doubt that if the Blues had have done an even swap for JT when Queensland grabbed the NSW-born and raised Inglis, the scoreboard would have looked completely different.
Getting team selections correct when you don’t have any future immortals is crucial and Ricky Stuart and Laurie Daley consistently went for defence at the expense of selecting a team that can score the benchmark 22 points.
You cannot defend for 80 minutes against class acts like GI, JT, Cronk, Slater, Lockyer and Smith. They are simply too good and too clever; the only way to beat them is to outscore them and the only way to do that is to select a 17 that can create scoreboard pressure.
To the credit of Laurie Daley and his controversial sidekick Bob Fulton, they have selected a team in 2016 capable of scoring 22 points.
They may well concede more points than the experienced Maroons, but at least they have given themselves a chance.
For the first time in over a decade, and despite market sentiment, my ratings are heavily influenced by the new eight interchange rule and a Blues 17 that can post a winning score.
There is no doubt that Adam Reynolds and James Maloney will be targets as will new fullback Moylan, but what they offer in offence should offset their defensive shortfalls.
Daley got it right with the hooker in Robbie Farah and those who cried out for Mick Ennis have not watched previous Origins. Farah wins easily in every key stat and his form in 2016 is very good with Farah beating Ennis in Dummy Half Run Metres, Tackles Per Minute and Total Tackles.
He has always rated closely with Cam Smith in his Origin encounters and his recall was the smart move.
Cordner and Jackson offer more than Scott and Hoffman, again an improvement.
NSW finally have a brilliant tactical kicker comparable with Cronk and Thurston in Adam Reynolds who will partner with the in-form James Maloney, but perhaps the most exciting addition is Matt Moylan who can do what Josh Dugan could not, and that is to pass and set up tries, no one does it better.
You have to like the left side where Daley has Maloney being protected by his former Roosters teammate Boyd Cordner, and next to them is best mates Michael Jennings and Josh Mansour who played with each other at the Panthers and are even closer off the field. Mansour has averaged 157m this season and he will be a godsend for his Panthers skipper Matt Moylan with kick return metres.
If the Blues are leading it is doubtful we will see shock reserve Dylan Walker get a run.
Perhaps the biggest stat is that Origin 2016 has two games in Sydney at ANZ and the Maroons have either lost or not beaten NSW by more than two points in the last six matches.
The stats say they are likely to be disappointed after 80 minutes.
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