The time of the year has once again arrived, and while Queensland will be out to win a tenth series in the last eleven years, for New South Wales it will be all about redemption following their humiliating Game III defeat last year.
The series kicks off this Wednesday night when the Blues and Maroons do battle at ANZ Stadium, and with two games at home this year the Blues will have their best hope of winning just their second series since 2005, while the Maroons will be out to continue their Origin dominance under a new coach.
After a decade of dominance under Mal Meninga in which only one series was lost, Kevin Walters has taken over as Maroons coach following the former’s elevation to the head coaching role of the Australian Test team last December.
As we are about to see, the Maroons have made just three changes to the team that thrashed New South Wales 52-6 in the Game III last year, with only two debutants being blooded by Walters and Josh McGuire returning after an Achilles injury ended his 2015 season last June.
Corey Oates and Justin O’Neill make their debuts in the place of Will Chambers (injured) and Justin Hodges (retired) respectively, while McGuire replaces Jacob Lillyman who has paid the price for the New Zealand Warriors’ poor form in 2016.
Cooper Cronk has also been named but has been given until match day to prove his fitness after rolling his ankle during training last week.
However, should Cronk not be passed fit, rather than draft in Daly Cherry-Evans as a direct replacement it is understood Lillyman might win a recall while Michael Morgan moves from the bench into the starting side.
Position-wise, Darius Boyd (wing in Game III last year) and Greg Inglis (fullback) will change positions, with Boyd’s impressive form at fullback from the Broncos seeing him named there while Inglis settles in at centre.
Veteran Johnathan Thurston will line up for his 34th consecutive State of Origin match – continuing a remarkable streak which started in 2005 and has seen him feature in each and every one of the Maroons’ nine series victories in the process.
By contrast, the Blues have made three times as many changes as their northern counterparts, with four players to debut and two veterans, among others, to return after missing the decider (and in the case of Greg Bird, the series) last year.
However, one has been forced with centre Josh Dugan set to miss the entire Origin series after re-aggravating the elbow injury he suffered in the Dragons’ 34-24 loss to the Rabbitohs back in round eleven.
It means that the Bulldogs’ Josh Morris will come in as his direct replacement, and he has been tasked with trying to shut down his Maroons counterpart Greg Inglis, who had been out of form for the Rabbitohs until a switch to five-eighth sparked them in the aforementioned match against the Dragons two weeks ago.
One of four debutants, Panthers captain Matt Moylan, will fill the custodian role with fellow debutant and teammate Josh Mansour named on the wing. The other two debutants are Adam Reynolds (halfback) and Dylan Walker (interchange).
Roosters winger Blake Ferguson also returns for his first Origin match since 2013 after impressing in what has been a tough season for the tri-colours.
Once again there will be a new halves pairing with Mitchell Pearce and Trent Hodkinson making way for James Maloney and Reynolds, the former returning for the first time since 2013 after starring for the Sharks this season and the latter making his Origin debut after impressing for the Rabbitohs.
Coach Laurie Daley will be hoping that his latest halves experiment works out, with Pearce and Hodkinson both being omitted after neither fired in their series-deciding loss last year, in addition to their clubs suffering from poor form this season.
Let’s now have a look at the two line-ups, and the ins and outs from Game III last year:
New South Wales
Matt Moylan, Blake Ferguson, Michael Jennings, Josh Morris, Josh Mansour, James Maloney, Adam Reynolds, Aaron Woods, Robbie Farah, Paul Gallen (c), Boyd Cordner, Josh Jackson, Greg Bird. Interchange: Dylan Walker, James Tamou, David Klemmer, Andrew Fifita. Coach: Laurie DaleyFrom Game III last year:
In: Matt Moylan*, Blake Ferguson, Josh Mansour*, James Maloney, Adam Reynolds*, Robbie Farah, Greg Bird, Dylan Walker*, Andrew Fifita.
Out: Josh Dugan, Will Hopoate, Brett Morris, Mitchell Pearce, Trent Hodkinson, Michael Ennis, Beau Scott, Ryan Hoffman, Trent Merrin.* denotes debutants
Queensland
Darius Boyd, Corey Oates, Greg Inglis, Justin O’Neill, Dane Gagai, Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk, Matt Scott, Cameron Smith (c), Nate Myles, Matt Gillett, Sam Thaiday, Corey Parker. Interchange: Michael Morgan, Josh McGuire, Aidan Guerra, Josh Papalii. Coach: Kevin WaltersFrom Game III last year:
In: Corey Oates*, Justin O’Neill*, Josh McGuire.
Out: Justin Hodges, Will Chambers, Jacob Lillyman.* denotes debutant
Why the Blues will win
With two games at home this year, the Blues will back themselves into winning just their second series since 2005, which would also bury the demons of last year’s series humiliation in which they lost the final game by a record scoreline of 52-6.
Coach Laurie Daley will be hoping that the four debutants he has blooded (Moylan, Mansour, Reynolds and Walker), as well as his new halves partnership in Maloney and Reynolds, can deliver, while seasoned veterans Farah and Bird return after missing the decider and series last year respectively.
Having played a huge role in the Sharks’ rise to the top of the NRL ladder, Maloney will also be hoping to weave his magic with Reynolds on the Origin arena, having narrowly failed when he partnered with Mitchell Pearce in 2013.
If the Blues can win the opening game, and assuming the second goes Queensland’s way as many expect, then the possibility of a record Blue crowd will hopefully cheer them onto a second series victory in three years.
Why the Maroons will win
It’s hard to make changes to a highly successful line-up, with only two forced changes from its Game III side last year: Justin Hodges (retired) and Will Chambers (injury), while Jacob Lillyman was the only unforced change though there is the chance he may win a recall if Cooper Cronk is ruled out due to injury.
As I have always said throughout the past decade of the Maroons’ dominance, experience, not form, is what wins Origin matches and series. Most of the Maroons sides named during this period have been picked on experience, and again that will come to the fore as they look to win the opening game in enemy territory.
That would then put them into prime position to wrap up the series at home, after which they can go for their first series clean sweep since 2010 on July 13.
It’ll also be hard not seeing the Maroons win on Wednesday night, with three of the top four teams in the NRL – the Melbourne Storm, Brisbane Broncos and North Queensland Cowboys supplying all but five of the 17 listed players above.
The verdict
The opening game of any Origin series will always bring up many subplots, such as whether the debutants named by the two sides can deliver on one of the biggest rugby league stages in Australia and just how the halves will function.
It will be interesting to see how the Maroons perform under new coach Kevin Walters, having achieved so much under his predecessor, Mal Meninga, but if anything, don’t expect anything to change.
Conversely, it will remain to be seen whether New South Wales can bounce back from their series defeat last year, which proved to be a very disappointing follow-up to their 2014 victory, which was their first series victory for nearly a decade.
While the Blues have made wholesale changes since, and expect a crowd of over 80,000 to be right behind them, it’ll be hard going past Queensland in this one.
Prediction
Queensland by six points.
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