- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
Are North Melbourne to 2016 what Fremantle were to 2015?
North have been struggling for respect all season, despite racing their way to a 9-0 record going into Round 10. They had only played two contenders, defeating Adelaide by a couple of goals in Melbourne after being arguably outplayed for a good portion of the match, and beating the Western Bulldogs in a low-scoring and ugly scrap of a game.
Along their winning run, they couldn’t get higher than sixth in the premiership betting, which made the fan-base unhappy. When you become a North member, along with your scarf and stickers you get a chip to put on your shoulder, and it doesn’t take much for it to grow. Brad Scott leads from the front in this regard.
The similarities between the Roos and last year’s Dockers go beyond the quirk that saw them each lose their first match in Round 10, with both coming in respectable enough circumstances. Freo lost to a Richmond that would finish fifth on the ladder, North going down to a Sydney that are currently sitting second. Both losses were on a Friday night.
Both matches were effectively lost in the first term too. The Tigers flew out of the blocks to be 30 points up at quarter time, going on to win by 27. The Swans raced to an early 31 point lead, and won the match by 26. Similar circumstances indeed.
Fremantle entered 2015 with the oldest list in the competition, and the second experienced in terms of games played. North in 2016 reverses those figures, the second oldest but most experienced.
Did the drain of a long season take its toll on the older Dockers in the end? Injuries take longer to recover from as time goes on, and the more aged the player, the less likely they are to come back as effectively.
Luke McPharlin, Michael Johnson and Zac Dawson, Freo’s first choice key defenders in 2015, all missed runs of matches, the latter two significantly so. McPharlin didn’t end up playing finals, while Johnson and Dawson did, but off extremely limited preparation. Hayden Ballantyne came into finals not having played for seven weeks.
Will the same fate befall North this year?
Drew Petrie is moving so slowly he could be the star of Weekend at Petrie’s if they wanted to re-imagine a particular 80s and 90s movie franchise. Nick Dal Santo is looking a bit creaky. Boomer Harvey is coming off his quietest game for almost a year. Is it just a coincidence that it was against the fiercest opposition his team has faced this season?
Can Scott Thompson and Michael Firrito stand up all year? Todd Goldstein’s body is looking banged up earlier than usual this season, and we know how big a load he carries, both in output on the ground, and importance to the team. Jarrad Waite’s output has diminished since his hot start to the season, and is another that had little impact against Sydney, despite coming up against an undermanned defence. He only has five goals from his last four games after opening the year with 22 in six.
Daniel Wells, the most balanced player at the Roos, and perennially underrated for his inside work, has already missed a couple of games through a minor injury, and only a brave man would back against him missing more.
The main reason North hasn’t been getting more respect from the wider footy public is that people just don’t rate them.
Some people look at the Roos through rose-coloured glasses and see two preliminary finals across 2014 and 2015 as the base from which to build. Others see a sixth and eighth placed finish after the home-and-away rounds in those years, and a fortuitous run through finals. They’re both right.
The Kangaroos also don’t beat the inferior sides by as much as others do, which gives people reasonable cause for doubt.
Essendon’s average losing margin this year is 46 points. North beat them by 14.
St Kilda’s average losing margin this year is 42 points. North beat them by 7.
Gold Coast’s average losing margin this year is 70. North beat them by 38.
The Roos also haven’t beaten Brisbane or Fremantle by their average losing margins either. There’s enough data there to paint an accurate picture.
Last year, Fremantle would get out to a fast start in games, putting the result beyond doubt, and then allow their opposition to gain back scoreboard respectability. This was put down by some to Ross Lyon managing his team to get them through a long season, not pushing them flat-out for 120 minutes of every game. This was proven to be bunkum.
It’s instructive to note that despite finishing on top of the ladder last year, Fremantle only had the fifth best percentage. This season, the Roos have the sixth best percentage despite holding top spot, two games clear of third. It’s another reason the doubters are within their rights to be so, and arguably a fairer reflection of the side.
North have played some very good football this year, but they haven’t played as much of it as other sides. They are a decent team, but not a great one. They have a number of good players, a few a lot better than that, and a bit of average propping them up.
But here’s the thing. You may not need to be a great side to win the flag this year. All of the contenders have their significant vulnerabilities. The clubs currently occupying the eight will almost surely be the eight finalists, and any one of them can win the premiership. North then is among this group.
The Roos have given themselves every chance by winning all those games, and there’s no excuse for them now to not finish in the top four, and they still have the inside running on a top two spot. If they can’t hold onto at least a top-four position from here, they won’t be good enough to go all the way.
We hear about football teams trained to peak in September, much like how Bart Cummings would train his Melbourne Cup horses to the minute for that first Tuesday in November. While it applies in racing, it’s unlikely to be true in footy.
But this season shapes as the year that the side that plays their best football in the finals can win it all. Maybe it will be North. Or, perhaps they’re going to be the Dockers all over again. If that’s the case, Roos fans should look away in 2017…