The fall has been dramatic – Fremantle, a premiership fancy of some, have yet to win a game in 2016. There’s been plenty of navel gazing in recent weeks: what, how and why. Here’s the where to next: a flag in 2020.

There are many statistics that point to the sheer pace of the Fremantle Dockers’ descent into 18th spot on the ladder, but one does the job better than them all.

Fremantle are the first team in VFL/AFL history to be minor premiers in one year, and go on to lose their first ten games in the proceeding season. If the competition was called off right now, they would be the first side in the game’s history to go from first to last in 12 months.

That is startling, and what’s more no one saw it coming, at least not to this scale. Some thought a preliminary final loss, in a game that was still for the taking until the final moments, was this team’s ceiling, and the lurking challengers would drag them back to earth. Even most of those people thought Fremantle would make it to September.

I had them in second spot and a defeated grand finalist.

Harley Bennell and Nat Fyfe were expected to form one of the most deadly one-two offensive punches in the game, as the best midfield group in the league barnstormed their way to a clean sheet at home and enough wins away to push for the double chance. The defence was suspect without its general in Luke McPharlin, and the key position posts still looked more toothpick than hefty pine tree, but that midfield…

In that piece above, I ended the passage on Fremantle with what’ll prove to be an awkwardly prescient line.

“All told, Fremantle’s pivot will be one of the storylines of the year.”

Quite. The Dockers were supposed to be good. Really good, in fact. But alas they are bad. Really, really bad.

Heading into Round 11 – halfway through the damn season – Fremantle still haven’t got a ‘W’ on the whiteboard. This time last year, they were 9-1 with a percentage of 139.8, and the runaway premiership favourites. Ross Lyon was so content with where the club sat he extended his coaching contract with the Dockers to the end of the decade – becoming the coach with the longest tenor on his deal in the league.

Roger Goodell, commissioner of the NFL, would envy the extent to which the AFL has become an any given Sunday league in 2016, and the battle for finals spots and positions is looking like a 23-round rock fight.

This presents Fremantle, and Lyon, with an interesting set of incentives. The list is, evidently, not of requisite strength to keep up with even the middling teams of 2016, and a house cleaning of some degree is in order. Fremantle learned this far earlier in the season than most sides do, and the fall relative to expectations was among the starkest in history.

Whether the Dockers are tanking or simply terrible is more a curiosity than anything right now. Lyon, the polished media performer that he is, expressed this view after Round 8.

“That’s just talk. I don’t think we have to tank, we’ve been trying our hardest and we’re zero and eight.”

It simply does not matter, and it’s not particularly interesting anyway. What is far more interesting, and relevant to the rest of this year and well beyond, is what Fremantle do from here. And sports fans, Fremantle’s build is going to be unlike any other in recent history.

A 2020 flag should be firmly in Fremantle’s sights – based on the first ten weeks of 2016, it is likely that’s where the crosshairs are pointing. Here’s why it is not only possible, but eminently achievable.

Demographic delight
Fremantle went to market with the second oldest team in the league in 2016 per draftguru.com.au, with a list sporting eight players aged 30 years or older.

Many of these remained the Dockers’ most influential, including David Mundy (30 years old), Aaron Sandilands (33) and Michael Johnson (31). The team’s lone proven key forward, Matthew Pavlich (34), held on to this year as his last with a hope that his beloved team could make another push for a flag.

The Dockers also have a bunch of players aged 28 to 30 – guys that should be the engine room of a team. We can strike many of these guys aged 28 or older off of Fremantle’s 2020 list; most will be too old, or don’t project as the kind of fine-wine player that can play well into their 30s at the highest standard.

What’s perhaps surprising, and more pertinently for Fremantle’s prospects, is how much young talent is on the list. If we take Fremantle’s 2016 playing stocks, fast forward ahead to the 2020 football year, and begin to build a team out of players that’ll be 30 or younger in this year, we get this (in age order).

Zac Clarke
Stephen Hill
Nick Suban
Clancee Pearce
Michael Walters
Nathan Fyfe
Cameron Sutcliffe
Harley Bennell
Lachie Neale
Matthew Taberner
Tom Sheridan
Hayden Crozier
Alex Pearce
Lachie Weller

That is a remarkably solid core group of players, 14 in all, that would be expected to be playing AFL-level football at the end of this decade – not all of them for Fremantle, for reasons we’ll get to soon.

Clancee Pearce might not survive the year-end cull that’s in prospect, and Nick Suban may need to prove he’s more than a bottom-of-the-rotation midfielder, but for the remainder, they’ll be around the traps.

In addition to that group, of the 15 players on Fremantle’s 2016 list that would be aged 30 or older in 2020, there are up to six that could be expected to be around.

David Mundy
Danyle Pearce
Lee Spurr
Michael Barlow
Garrick Ibbotson
Chris Mayne

Again, these guys may not be first picked, but if a 33-year-old Michael Barlow is relegated to the role of depth player, that’s a decent position to be in. A 35-year-old Mundy might be a stretch, particularly given his recent calf troubles, but I’d think it more likely than not he remains a viable player at the end of the decade. Pearce recently signed on to the end of 2018, while Barlow, Spurr and Ibbotson are all late models with fewer miles on the odometer than most close-to-30-year-olds.

Meanwhile, the Dockers have taken a number of additional draftees in recent years not cited above, who will get some game time as the rest of this year unfolds. It is far too early to tell, but youngsters Brady Grey, Harley Balic, Darcy Tucker and Ethan Hughes all come with upside. Should one or two of those pan out, they’ll add to what is projecting to be a solid core group of players.

But it won’t be enough. Fremantle have holes, and will need to take care as to how they fill them over the next few years as they push for contention at the end of the decade. The window is tight, and most sides that need to bottom out will require a longer lead time to build sustainably. But Fremantle, with their core group of players currently aged 23 to 26, have a meaningful head start.

Central to this is the retention of the expiring contract of Lachie Neale, who is one of half a dozen Dockers who can hold their head up high so far this season. He’s been linked to all manner of clubs in recent months, which is usually a sign that management is not talking to any clubs with much gusto. Retaining Neale must be list management priority number one for Fremantle to hit their 2020 deadline, and a five-year contract – which would take Neale to his unrestricted free agency at the conclusion of the decade – has to be on the table.

Notwithstanding Neale’s situation, the burgeoning middle-age stocks of Fremantle afford the Dockers the relative luxury of being able to be more selective in what, and who, they target. It also gives them an extra couple of shots to fire when it comes to greasing the trade wheels.

Indeed, this year they’re likely to enter the trade period with one of the top two or three picks, if not the big kahuna itself. They’ll possess plenty of equity, and will need to put it to use.

Key position holes, I have a few…
It is an excellent start, but problems undoubtedly exist. The Dockers are still very light on in the key position stakes – a problem that will doubtlessly compound as Pavlich retires this year and Johnson follows not long after.

Matthew Taberner, now in his fourth season after joining the Dockers off of the rookie list in 2012, looks unlikely to be anything more than a second or third tall – probably more the latter.

2013 draftee Michael Apeness hasn’t set the world on fire at WAFL level, but that could be due to injury more than ability. Alex Pearce has spent time as a forward, but looks far more at home as a key defender. The rest of Fremantle’s key position stable looks speculative. Chris Mayne is Chris Mayne, and always will be.

There is always the option of converting Nat Fyfe into a modern-day Pavlich – a key forward at heart who spends time at centre clearances and stoppages in the forward half of the ground. Fyfe’s Round 4 outing against the Roos, where he kicked four goals on four marks inside 50, yet won seven clearances and 15 contested possessions, might be a sign of things to come.

Notwithstanding, the gap between here and contention is a chasm, and is the area of Fremantle’s 2020 list most in need of a talent injection. As ever, their options are limited.

Unrestricted free agent Cale Hooker is off the board, and the rest of the free agency pool has been mostly swept clean, with players electing to re-sign with their current clubs. There are still a couple of intriguing options, though, including Melbourne’s Jack Watts and Richmond’s Ty Vickery who are both restricted free agents. While intriguing, neither will solve Fremantle’s problems on their own, and both would be considered required players by their current clubs, making it hard to prise them loose for reasonable coin.

Essendon’s Michael Hurley is yet to indicate he’s a lock to return to Essendon, and under a breach clause in the AFL collective bargaining agreement, he can become an unrestricted free agent if he so chooses. That option is available, but it would be a remarkable long shot that he moved, let alone moved to Fremantle.

Instead, Fremantle will have to hit the trade market hard in the coming years. One option that comes to mind immediately is Adelaide’s Josh Jenkins, who is reportedly keen to hear offers from clubs outside the state of his current employer. At 27, he’d be pushing Fremantle’s age profile requirements a little, but as one of the last of a dying breed of true full forwards, a suitor could be reasonably confident that he’ll serve out a long-term deal. The Dockers may go beyond kicking the tyres if Jenkins expresses interest.

The Cam McCarthy non-trade from last year’s trade period is looking like one of the most colossal dodged bullets in AFL history, given the Dockers had offered the Giants their 2016 first round pick as part of the deal, which might end up being number one. McCarthy is good, sure, but that deal would have been catastrophic for the Dockers.

With another year passed, and McCarthy effectively living in Perth and training at Fremantle’s headquarters with WAFL side South Fremantle, there are two potential outcomes. The Giants could cut ties with McCarthy and delist him, allowing Fremantle to pick him up for no consideration. Or the Giants could request Fremantle offer up some of their bountiful draft capital to use on their academy players.

The delist option might seem farfetched, but the Giants’ situation is a unique one in that they are required to cull their main list by two each year to the end of 2019. And in case you haven’t been paying attention, the Giants are flush with talent. In either case, the head says McCarthy’s move to Fremantle will likely happen in this off-season, or he’ll be out of the league entirely.

That’s one, but the Dockers will need some more help than that.

They need a key forward that can shoulder a 60-goal-a-year load, that can peak around the end of the decade, and is preferably a home-grown product. Melbourne’s Jesse Hogan meets that criteria.

There’s nothing to suggest Hogan wants to move, or is going to move, or that Melbourne are even entertaining the idea of Hogan playing anywhere but at his current club. But would the number one pick in the 2016 draft, and an established player to help Melbourne build some more depth, make the decision a little more difficult for Melbourne?

The Dockers have history in trading the number one pick, too, being the first (and last) club to do so at the turn of the century. A BBQ-stopping deal of this nature is almost certainly not going to happen – they never do – but given Hogan’s roots in West Australia, retisence to sign on despite Melbourne doubtlessly giving sacks full of cash, and the bright prospects of the Dees, there could be something there.

Landing a whale like Hogan would go a long way to solving Fremantle’s key position challenge. But that’s only part of the problem; Fremantle will still need more bodies to replace those who will depart this year, and in the years ahead.

The list of unforced departees could include free agent Zac Clarke, apparently in-demand Chris Mayne, and any one of the solid contributors in Nick Suban, Tom Sheridan, Hayden Crozier and Cameron Sutcliffe – all of whom bar Mayne are from the east coast. That will up the ante on Fremantle’s previous two years of drafting, and place even more pressure on nailing the draft in this year and next.

If Hogan isn’t available, and McCarthy is the only viable key position option for Fremantle in this trade period, the Dockers might even consider trading out of their top pick for multiple shots inside of the top 20 or 30, to buy an extra few lines on their Lotto ticket.

The path back to contention is going to be hard, but is perhaps not quite as long as other clubs that have descended from the summit base camp in modern times. Fremantle’s stocks look haggard as we sit here today, but taking the long view suggests there is a strong likelihood that there’s enough sitting on the list when projected forward that a full scale teardown won’t be required.

Beauty is always in the eye of the beholder; it is easy to look at a broken, beaten playing group that’s failed to win a game for premiership points in over eight months and see a can of pea soup. Look a little deeper, consider the context, maybe squint a little, and a work of art could emerge.

Ross Lyon is a shrewd individual. He would have known the fall was coming, if not quite so soon or suddenly. He signed on anyway, where any number of clubs would have gladly given him a chance to mould their own footballing futures. The 2020 flag is in his sights, and the work has already begun.