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How will 39 become 30, then 23 for Michael Cheika?

Taqele Naiyaravoro scores for the Waratahs. (Photo: A Knight)
Expert
31st May, 2016
255
5220 Reads

The ‘big family hug’ of 39 potential Wallaby players has been announced. It’s a nice option for Michael Cheika. It gives notice to those on the outlying reaches of his selection radar, and it allows him to see how they act both on and off the field in camp.

It’s as much a psychological as an athletic assessment of their fitness to play for the Wallabies. Cheika wants to see what they call ‘the good make-up’ in American baseball, get close and personal to find out what makes his marginal players tick.

But the first cut will not be the deepest. It is only in the 30-down-to-23 round that the pain of cutting legitimate Test-match contenders will be felt. That pain will be set in stone when the match-day squad of 23 for Brisbane is finally announced.

So let’s take a tour of 39-man squad, and a measure of how the two rounds of cuts may develop by position:

Front row

Selection rounds Loose-head Hooker Tight-head
39 1.Scott Sio 1.Stephen Moore 1.Sekope Kepu
30 2.James Slipper 2.Tatafu Polota-Nau 2.Greg Holmes
23 3.Toby Smith 3.James Hanson
  4.Allan Alaalatoa    

I expect selection in the front row to be quite straightforward. Sekope Kepu and Greg Holmes are by far the two best tight-heads available, and they will go through automatically to the match-day 23.

Kepu’s release by his club Bordeaux was important, because Australia will probably have an advantage on this side of the scrum. With both Kepu and Holmes in harness, and Tatafu Polota-Nau back from injury, they should be able to maximise it throughout the full 80 minutes.

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Second row

Selection rounds Left lock Right lock
39

1.Rory Arnold

1.Rob Simmmons*

30

2.Adam Coleman*

2.James Horwill*

23

3.Will Skelton

3.Sam Carter*

  4.Dean Mumm*  

(Potential lineout captains are marked with an asterisk*)

From one of the easiest selections to one of the toughest! Cheika likely brought James Horwill back in from the cold – both literally and figuratively – for one reason alone: to provide reliable leadership at lineout, and beyond it, from the bench when Rob Simmons leaves the field around the 50-60 minute mark.

Favourite to be Simmons’ starting partner at present has to be Rory Arnold, who has strung together an impressive sequence of performances for the Brumbies from Round 11 of Super rugby onwards.

This is a situation with a lot of fluidity in it – while Simmons remains a non-negotiable at right lock, the position next to him really is up for grabs.

Back row

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Selection rounds Blind-side flank No.8 Open-side flank
39

1.Scott Fardy

1.David Pocock

1.Michael Hooper

30

2.Sean McMahon

2.Wyclif Palu

2.Liam Gill

23  

3. Ben McCalman

 
    4.Leroy Houston  

I expect Cheika to persist with ‘Pooper’, as England still won’t be coming with a dedicated 7, so the combination of Michael Hooper and David Pocock remains an excellent breakdown solution on both sides of the ball. It gives a 6-7-7 arrangement against England’s 6-6-8, which means an advantage in on-ball speed.

I also have a sneaking feeling that Cheika will attach value to Wyclif Paul’s potential contribution from the bench, while Sean McMahon has a chance to unseat Scott Fardy as the starting 6 if he can prove himself a significant lineout resource.

Halves

Selection rounds Scrum-half​ Outside half​
39

1.Nick Phipps

1.Bernard Foley

23

2.Nick Frisby

2.Christian Lealiifano

  3.Joe Powell  

Joe Powell is only in the squad for early observation at this stage of his career, although interestingly he is the only scrum-half in the squad who passes directly off the floor – and in this respect he is ahead of both the Nicks.

Frisby will pressurise Phipps for more game-time as the series progresses, while Christian Lealiifano will obviously get a hard look at 12 for the first Test at Brisbane.

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Centres

Selection rounds Inside centre Outside centre
23

1. Karmichael Hunt

1.Tevita Kuridrani

2.Samu Kerevi

All three of selected centres (plus Lealiifano) will make it through to the final match-day cut. The real issue is how Cheika will achieve his aim of getting all his best back-line bodies on the field at the same time.

The absence of Australia’s best pure wingman, Joe Tomane, has increased the chances of the Reds’ Karmichael Hunt starting at Brisbane. With back three resources looking thin, Cheika doesn’t need multi-talented Israel Folau at centre, so he will almost certainly remain at fullback or move to a wing.

Cheika needs a dedicated open-side wing in set-piece defence – the role played by Adam Ashley-Cooper at the World Cup. Rob Horne is best suited to that role, which in turn would leave Folau and Hunt free to work the backfield pendulum on defence.

Whatever the numbers on their backs, all of Kerevi, Kuridrani and Hunt can be accommodated in the same back-line: imagine Hunt as second play-maker, with the two Ks and Folau around him on attack. Imagine Hooper-Kerevi-Kuridrani-Horne in front line set-piece defence, with Hunt and Folau behind them in the backfield.

Back-three

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Selection rounds Left wing Right wing Fullback
39

1.Rob Horne

1.Israel Folau

1. Dane Haylett-Petty

30

2.Eto Nabuli

2.Taqele Naiyaravoro

2.Mike Harris

23 3.Luke Morahan

With only 14 backs included in the initial 39-man squad, there is ample space for a ‘bolter’ to emerge in camp conditions, and that man could be a 194-centimetre, 125-kilogram monster named Taqele Naiyaravoro. He would put the icing on the cake, in respect of the Wallabies’ big advantage in size and power in the back-line against England.

Even without Naiyaravoro, the Wallabies from numbers 11 through 15 will average over 100 kilograms per man, against an expected England average of 93 kilograms (in the absence of Manu Tuilagi). With Naiyaravoro in the match-day 23, the Wallaby average rises to 104 kilograms. There will not be a single back-line position where England are either bigger or more physical than their Wallaby counterparts.

Naiyaravoro was the subject of a 2015 tug-of-war between Scotland and Australia, with one of the two professional provinces – Glasgow Warriors – projecting his qualification under the three-year residency rule. Naiyaravoro’s nine minutes for the Wallabies against USA in September squashed that possibility, and he duly activated his one-year escape clause in order to return to the Waratahs.

Naiyaravoro has probably the most exceptional physical tools of any ‘big wing’ on the global scene since Jonah Lomu. I was lucky enough to see his huge upside live in the European Champions Cup fixture between Glasgow and the Scarlets at Scotstoun:

He gained 150 metres more than anyone else on the field during this game, an accurate representation of his impact on it – especially from the kick returns, which comprise the first four pieces of action.

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The brute ‘goodbye’ power in the hips and the fend (reminiscent of Lomu) is universal, but there are also some delicate nuances in the physical make-up:

• The will-to-offload after the break at 8:04, 17:36, 21:28 and 47:28
• The soft hands on receipt at 47:25, 69:21 and 72:50
• The natural balance and awareness of the side-line at 21:29

These examples represent a huge reservoir of natural potential waiting to be tapped by coaching in Australia at the professional level – Daryl Gibson at the Tahs and Stephen Larkham with the Wallabies. That potential is raw, but even in its current state, it may be worth the final 20 or so minutes of a Test match in June.

I will conclude with my favourite piece of Naiyaravoro action from the Scarlets game. Technically, it is a cleanout. In reality, it is only a nudge by a very large and powerful man, which takes two opponents out of the play like wooden skittles.

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