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Oh baby, it’s pest control time as the cockroaches and cane toads come out to play in rugby league’s centerpiece. Get your dip ready, fire up the barbie, put the beers in the esky, and settle in for what will be one hell of a game.
Game details: Kick-off 8pm at ANZ Stadium
Betting: NSW $1.91, Queensland 2.04
The build-up
Game 1 looks like one of the juiciest match ups in recent history.
Both teams are experiencing somewhat of a new era. The Blues have four debutants, while the Maroons have a new coach in Kevin Walters.
The contrast however, couldn’t be starker. The Blues bring in these new players due to consistent failure. They have just one series win from the previous ten – abysmal by anyone’s standards.
More Origin
» NSW’s impending Game 1 victory: Tomorrow’s headlines today
» Why Queensland will win
» Why NSW will win
» Head-to-head: Which team sheet comes out on top?
» Origin Game 1: Expert tips and predictions
» Queensland will win Origin again and I couldn’t care less
» Five burning questions Origin 1 will answer
Ultimately there is a genuine need to try something different, for the sake of Laurie Daley’s future coaching prospects and selector Bob Fulton to continue to hold onto a job after some awful squads were selected during the rut (Jamie Buhrer, anyone?).
Walters meanwhile, comes in due to Queensland enjoying so much success that their previous coach, Mal Meninga, believed he had achieved everything with the squad and went on to greener (and golder) pastures, to coach national side.
Cooper Cronk’s ankle injury has dominated what has been by and large a slow build-up, and it’s likely that Cronk will in fact play.
New South Wales love playing on home turf. They have won four of their past six matches at ANZ stadium.
The match-up
NSW have named their best squad in many a year, due to a raft of changes and debutants.
Josh Mansour is fantastic and should thrive in the Origin arena, Matt Moylan is the reincarnation of Queensland legend Darren Lockyer and is capable of a big play or ten, while Josh Dugan’s injury means the ever-reliable Josh Morris retains his place in the centres.
Perhaps the biggest positive in comparison to years gone by is no Mitchell Pearce.
Call him an unlucky scapegoat or a brilliant club player, but at the end of the day he has consistently failed at Origin level. It’s no coincidence the Blues enjoyed their one and only series victory in the past decade when Pearce wasn’t there. Adam Reynolds has a brilliant kicking game and should be up to it.
As for the Blues forward pack, one word sums it up: big. Given the wet conditions Sydney is experiencing this week, we can expect to see a forwards-dominated game. A tough and potentially dour contest means Daley has named a pack including Aaron Woods, Paul Gallen, James Tamou, Andrew Fifita and David Klemmer.
That’s five genuine middle men, which means Greg Bird is expected to shift into the second row at various points in the game to give Josh Jackson and Boyd Cordner a rest.
For Queensland, it’s a case of pick and stick. There is no need to change a winning formula and ultimately three of their four key changes are forced via injuries. The incredible Corey Oates debuts on the wing, with the absent Billy Slater allowing Darius Boyd to play fullback, which should see him receive fewer gift-wrapped four pointers from Greg Inglis.
Justin O’Neill also debuts for the Maroons in place of the injured Will Chambers, who would have shifted to centre following the retirement of Justin Hodges, but it’s hard to see him making this squad if Valentine Holmes and Cameron Munster were eligible for selection – regardless, he is a premiership-winning player with plenty of speed.
Josh McGuire comes in for Jacob Lillyman (provided Cronk is injured), which only strengthens the Queensland roster. The young Bronco has been in incredible form and deserves his call up. The only player more deserving of an Origin debut in this team was the Cowboys’ Gavin Cooper, and many have been scratching their head at Aiden Guerra’s selection in the squad.
When all is said and done though, regardless of debutants or slight squad alterations, the majority of the champion Queensland side of the past decade is intact.
Any team that features the likes of Cameron Smith, Johnathan Thurston and Cooper Cronk is capable of demolishing a world-class team to the tune of 52-6, as Queensland did in Game 3 of the last series.
The what’s up
What’s up with Dylan Walker being selected in this match?
His performances in the NRL this season have been below average, to say the least. Sure, he has the ability to play centre and wing, but the suggestion he can play in the halves is foolish given he can’t do so effectively at first-grade standard, let alone potentially fill in time at hooker or second row – positions he has never played.
Blake Austin, Bryce Cartwright, Jack Bird, Wade Graham, Latrell Mitchell and Josh Reynolds all offer greater form and utility value.
This match should be a bruising encounter, one that will be heavily focused on the middle third of the field given the weather conditions, which plays into NSW’s hands.
On the subject of hands though, the Blues need to be prepared to throw caution to the wind to be in with a chance of winning. In series past, their desire to get into the grind has proved more costly then rewarding.
Far too many times the Blues have failed to win a match as opposed to trying not to lose it, as evidenced by the low scores they often obtain – 42 points across three games in 2015, 26 across three games in 2014.
Attempting to purely defend a possible win against a team with limitless attacking options is like expecting to win a football match without taking a shot – if you don’t shoot, you can’t score a goal.
With huge home-crowd support, a great kicking combination in James Maloney and Adam Reynolds, and a monster forward pack, I am backing the Blues to get home in a thrilling and tight encounter.
Tip: New South Wales 1-12
First try scorer: Josh Mansour
Man of the match: James Maloney
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