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State of Origin Game 1: Why NSW will win

31st May, 2016
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Greg Bird will not get a farewell game. (AAP Image/Paul Miller)
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31st May, 2016
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Stats, history and common sense are all against me on this one, so I’m going to channel my inner Dennis Denuto. NSW are going to win Origin 1 tonight because… it’s just the vibe of the thing.

Can’t you just feel it in the air? Some intangible, undefinable reason as to why Queensland’s ten years of dominance are set to finally have a line drawn underneath them?

ORIGIN GAME 1 LIVE SCORES

As to a precendent for my vibe? Ummm… well, I totally had a vibe before Andrew Johns stepped up and demolished Queensland in that game back in 2005.

More Origin
» Why Queensland will win
» NSW’s impending Game 1 victory: Tomorrow’s headlines today
» Head-to-head: Which team sheet comes out on top?
» Origin Game 1: Expert tips and predictions
» Queensland will win Origin again and I couldn’t care less
» Five burning questions Origin 1 will answer

But then I’ve also had a vibe going into each series since, for a record of 1-9.

So, yeah, my track record on this stuff isn’t great. Alright, let’s talk specifics.

First up is the Kevin Walters factor.

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Yesterday I addressed ‘Ivan Henjack syndrome’ – how the coach replacing a legend inevitably tanks.

And when it comes to State of Origin, no one else comes close to Mal Meninga.

It really doesn’t matter that he may or may not have been the actual coach, fact is with Big Mal at the helm Queensland created an era of dominance perhaps only comparable to St George’s run in the 1950s and ’60s. His absence will be keenly felt.

In fact, his absence has already been keenly felt.

At a start-of-season camp, Valentine Holmes broke curfew, and ended up arrested and copping a $1412 fine for obstructing police and public nuisance. He and Cameron Muster, who also slipped out for the evening, were subsequently barred from Origin for 12 months.

Days later, it came out that six other young Queenslanders had also decided Kevvie was probably only kidding when he set a bedtime, and Anthony Milford, Ben Hunt, Dylan Napa, Jarrod Wallace, Edrick Lee and Chris Grevsmuhl also were told to cool their heels for 2016.

Never mind how helpful the destructive Napa would be against a firebrand Blues pack, or how any of Holmes, Milford or Hunt could have taken the utility bench spot, what does it say about the famed Queensland culture that eight young players ultimately valued coldies at the Story Bridge Hotel over a Maroon jersey?

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Who knows whether any of this happened under Meninga’s watch? Me, and no, it would not have.

Mal commands way too much respect to be so openly and flagrantly disobeyed. Walters just doesn’t carry the same gravitas – how could he? – and the Blues know it.

The fear and respect the Maroons were afforded over the years by NSW came about in no small way because Queensland had the belief they were the best instilled in them by one of the greatest players of all time.

Mal was the mental edge. And now he’s gone.

Of course, you don’t really need a mental edge if you’re coming up against a team that don’t believe they’re going to win in the first place. But NSW are brimming with confidence.

Game 3 of last year was an embarrassment, Queensland handing NSW a 52-6 spanking, which was the biggest winning margin in Origin history. It was an emphatic way of reclaiming the shield the Maroons had lost the previous year.

Eight NSW players who copped that hiding – Josh Morris, Michael Jennings, Aaron Woods, James Tamou, Paul Gallen, Boyd Cordner, David Klemmer and Josh Jackson – will front up again tonight.

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But rather than be scared, those are the kind of blokes who will be fuelled by that night last July. Sadly, the majority of those blokes are no strangers to being beaten by Queensland, and know how to dust themselves off after a loss, while newer faces like Klemmer and Jackson will simply be keen for revenge.

The guys who really could have suffered after that loss are those in the crucial spine positions, where there has been a complete overhaul. Josh Dugan’s gone, with Matt Moylan in at fullback; halves Mitchell Pearce and Trent Hodkinson are replaced with James Maloney and Adam Reynolds; and while Robbie Farah was named to play Game 3 of 2015, he was ruled out injured in favour of Mick Ennis.

And for the first time in years, that’s a spine that people have some legitimate faith in, particularly in the halves.

Maloney has led Cronulla’s charge to the top of the ladder, and he was solid when he played for NSW in the 2013 series. Reynolds is the real gem selection though.

Long considered to have been overlooked, there’s a distinct chance the selectors have actually played this one perfectly, waiting for his game and body to mature enough that he’s not being thrown to the wolves like so many Blues halfbacks in the past ten years. The Souths half will be a gun, and with the weather likely to be awful, his kicking game could well be what decides the match.

As I said at the top, when the Maroons’ recent record looks the way it does, there’s really no good way to argue that the Blues will win.

But NSW are going to claim Game 1.

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It’s just the vibe.

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