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Based upon talent alone, the 2016 class of All Blacks may one day be rated among of the best rugby teams of all time. I do not think this is likely, but the point is that we don’t yet know if talent will become greatness.
Young or unestablished players have not yet reached their full potential. And I am not talking about raw individual ability, but their potential to contribute to a winning team.
Necessarily absent in the new All Blacks is a belief in their ability to win no matter how dire the situation. Necessarily absent is knowing they will dominate their opponent in a key moment in the match. These are absent because they only come through experience, which they do not yet have.
However superlative his playing ability, Tiger Woods of 1997-99 was not yet the unstoppable force who intimated all before him in the years to follow.
Self-belief in times of adversity and dominance in key moments lead to greatness in sport, and the All Blacks of 2016 are necessarily not as great as last year.
For this reason, they will be more beatable this year.
The likes of Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith were supreme rugby players for most of their careers, but in the last four years they were key cogs in a virtually unbeatable machine. Staring down and besting, just, the almost unfathomable pressure of the 2011 World Cup final was the last piece of belief missing. Steve Hansen inherited a team of rugby gods.
Talent has much less to do with it than sheer will and belief, a preeminent ability impossible to replace; the ultimate lift for the rest of the team. And then there is the ability to be that little bit better than their opposite but more often dominant at crucial moments of matches. This not about talent.
With the four above I would throw in Kieran Read, Aaron Smith, Brodie Retallick and, in recent times, Dane Coles as players who posses what I shall call the ‘supreme rugby mana’. Note that there are many very good All Blacks players I would not yet include on this list.
The four above, along with the ridiculously talented rest of them, will still be the best team in world rugby by far. It is still going to be hard for any team to beat them in a match, let alone a series. But I cannot help but be optimistic about the Wallabies’ chances of winning the Bledisloe in the next few years.
There is just no way to know which – if any – of the new players will achieve supreme rugby mana status. Or to put it another way, our chances have improved, and this is enough for me to believe an upset is possible.
It is of note that three out of the four remaining supreme rugby mana holders are forwards. This shows the path for the Wallabies. The midfield, in particular, will be an opening, as whoever they put in the centres will not be Smith and Nonu – at least not for a while. These two could almost be described as supreme rugby mana squared, such was their combination. It is hard to imagine the All Blacks being anywhere near as dominant over the last several years without them. This 2016 centre pairings will be good, but not yet great, and I hope Michael Cheika throws everything at them by picking a high-risk, high-reward combination.
There is of course another half to this equation. Who in the current Wallabies has supreme rugby mana? I would suggest David Pocock as perhaps the only one, while Israel Folau has definite potential. These two at their best, supported by everyone else playing well, could be enough for a Bledisloe.
If I switch off the television after another humbling black avalanche this August, I will not concede that my thoughts in June were wrong. For one, the All Blacks, despite losing half of their supreme rugby mana, still have more than everyone else. Secondly, they have enough talent to punish any team slightly off their game. And third, their new or newish players, already amazing, might get even better. A scary thought.
Can we match them? Now is our best chance in a while.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.