The bye rounds are a natural place to take stock of how the season has unfolded.

Starting today, and including the next two Fridays, I’ll be looking at how each club has fared, seeing what I got right and wrong in my pre-season preview series, and predict where each side may end up at the completion of the home-and-away rounds.

Adelaide
Pre-season right: “The forward-line is the jewel in the Adelaide crown, arguably the most complete in the league. When working in sync with a midfield that’s on top they’re all but unstoppable.”

Pre-season wrong: “The Crows are a solid chance to play finals again, but some good sides are going to miss out this year. I’m saying they’re one of them.”

Ladder: seventh (8 wins, 4 losses, 127.9%)
Wins: Port, Richmond, Sydney, Fremantle, Gold Coast, GWS, St Kilda, West Coast
Losses: North, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Geelong

Adelaide’s rise from predicted faller to premiership threat has been one of the stories of the season, particularly when you think they have had four senior coaches in their last 36 matches, and the talent they have lost over recent years – including Patrick Dangerfield, Jack Gunston, Kurt Tippett and Phil Davis, four players that could form an All-Australian spine this season.

They have weapons up forward in Taylor Walker, who has only delivered in patches this year, Eddie Betts, Josh Jenkins, and Tom Lynch, while Mitch McGovern has slotted in well.

The Crows midfield brigade is led by Rory Sloane, evergreens Scott Thompson and Richard Douglas, with the likes of Matt Crouch, Jarryd Lyons and Rory Atkins finding their way. Brad Crouch is the missing link, and could provide star quality if he can convert his SANFL dominance to the AFL as he should.

Their rebound from halfback is the best in the competition, through Rory Laird, Brodie Smith and Paul Seedsman, complemented by the intercept marking of Daniel Talia and youngster Jake Lever, while Kyle Cheney, Luke Brown and Kyle Hartigan do the dirty work.

Adelaide have started to find the right balance between playing slingshot football and organising their forward press, which was on display against West Coast last weekend. If they are injury free and get their momentum up hitting finals, they will be one of the most dangerous teams in September.

Predicted wins: 15-16
Predicted ladder: fifth
All-Australian contenders: Eddie Betts, Rory Laird, Tom Lynch, Rory Sloane, Daniel Talia

Carlton
Pre-season right: “As ever, a new coach breathes fresh air into a tired football club, and the noises coming out of Princes Park are all the right ones. The older players are invigorated, the younger players get their chance to prove themselves to a fresh set of eyes. It’s unlikely we have another Mark Neeld on our hands.”

Pre-season wrong: Predicted finish 17th.

Ladder: 11th (6 wins, 6 losses, 84.7%)
Wins: Fremantle, Essendon, Collingwood, Port, Geelong, Brisbane
Losses: Richmond, Sydney, Gold Coast, Bulldogs, North, St Kilda

Carlton have been the most pleasant surprise of any team this season. It’s always a good football story when a club that is given no hope is able to string some wins together. It doesn’t quite compare to the rise of Port in 2013 or the Western Bulldogs last year, but it is notable all the same. A new coach can indeed work wonders.

The Blues have gone with a defence first philosophy at odds with the way the game is played this year, but in keeping with the players they have at their disposal. Despite being ranked second last in scoring, only the top eight sides, all almost certain finalists, have conceded less points against than Brendon Bolton’s men.

Basically, it’s Jake Weitering’s job to take the intercept marks, and then funnel the ball through Sam Docherty and Kade Simpson to distribute with poise and precision. It’s worth noting that Docherty should also be in any conversation about best mark for his size in the AFL, so he isn’t just an outside runner.

Their forward line could be kindly described as dysfunctional, with a forward six comprising off-cuts and flawed souls. The midfield has many players producing either career peaks or close enough to it to ensure competitiveness.

If there’s a downside to Carlton’s rise, it’s that not many of their current best side would be considered young. Only Weitering, Patrick Cripps, Lachie Plowman and Irishman Ciaran Byrne will be under 23 next season.

As Ryan Buckland will be only too happy to tell you, there are still many crucial list management decisions ahead for Steven Silvagni and co, but they are at least going to be making them from a position of buoyancy and confidence in the plan they have laid out.

Predicted wins: 9-10
Predicted ladder: 10th
All-Australian contenders: Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Bryce Gibbs, Kade Simpson

Collingwood
Pre-season right: “What’s up for debate with Cloke is whether he can get back to his best. Is he covering the ground like he once did? Is he easier to defend now, both up the ground and closer to goal? There’s something lugubrious about his play these days.”

Pre-season wrong: “They’ll improve this season… A top six finish is a realistic aim…”

Ladder: 14th (4 wins, 8 losses, 84.5%)
Wins: Richmond, Essendon, Brisbane, Geelong
Losses: Sydney, St Kilda, Melbourne, West Coast, Carlton, Bulldogs, Port, Melbourne

Collingwood are on track for their sixth consecutive fall after their 2010 premiership, with five of those years under Nathan Buckley, who as yet does not know the feeling of coaching a side to rise up the ladder. Talk about dancing with your sister.

The Pies have had some well-documented injuries this year, most keenly felt forward of centre, where Jamie Elliott and Dane Swan haven’t played due to season-ending injuries, Travis Varcoe has lacked continuity, and Alex Fasolo has been hobbled after being on track for a career-year.

Darcy Moore will also have missed four to six weeks of football by the time he comes back from a broken collarbone, and he had been battling valiantly in a poor ball movement side in the absence of Travis Cloke for support.

But Collingwood have been too easy to score against, and core midfielders Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar, Steele Sidebottom, Jack Crisp and Levi Greenwood have only missed two games between them. Taylor Adams is the main prime mover that has been missed.

The Pies are never out of the news for long, and furore continues to surround the futures of Buckley and Cloke. Injuries can only be used as an alibi for so long, and the question is whether Buckley has dug himself a hole of stats, processes and technical speak that the players can’t climb out of.

Predicted wins: 7-8
Predicted ladder: 14th
All-Australian contenders: Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Adam Treloar

Gold Coast
Pre-season right: “A ten-man leadership is a concern from the outside, coming across as a decision that says they believe they have too few leaders, not too many.”

Pre-season wrong: “The Suns should get back to where they were a couple of years ago, inconsistent but capable of beating anyone on their day.”

Ladder: 15th (3 wins, 9 losses, 70.9%)
Wins: Essendon, Fremantle, Carlton
Losses: Brisbane, North, Geelong, Melbourne, GWS, Adelaide, West Coast, Sydney, Richmond

Three wins to open the year, bright and energetic football, 16 goals a game, their first ever win in Perth. Ablett on fire, Hall setting Brownlow pace, Lynch making his mark as the most commanding forward in the game, and still with Swallow and O’Meara to return.

Boy, has it all turned to faeces for Gold Coast after a start that promised so much.

Since their Q-Clash loss to Brisbane in Round 4, they have gone 0-8 over the last eight rounds, with an average losing margin of 66 points. To put this into perspective, the Suns suffered eight losses in a row in their first year in the competition, and that was at an average losing margin of 52 points.

It’s not always easy in a struggling side, but, outside of Lynch, how many players can we say with absolute certainty have improved this year? It’s at the margins. Sean Lemmens. Sam Day. Peter Wright. Alex Sexton was showing promise before being injured.

The list of players to have stagnated or gone backwards is three times as long, which is an extremely worrying position to be in for a side at the bottom end of the age and experience ladder.

As it stands, development is poor, culture is toxic, promises are empty, medical department is substandard, and the only thing lower than any excitement surrounding the club is their relevance within the football world.

Any established player worthy of chasing has no reason to pick the Suns. O’Meara, Dion Prestia and Swallow must be closer to going than staying. If they go down the youth path again, what’s to stop history from repeating?

Predicted wins: 4-5
Predicted ladder: 16th
All-Australian contenders: Gary Ablett, Tom Lynch

Richmond
Pre-season right: “The team still has an immaturity about it in pressure situations, with their slow starts to the year and an inability to put away finals from a position of strength speaking to a mental weakness.”

Pre-season wrong: “Tyrone Vickery has become more consistent, and might be about to make his mark as a 40-50 goal forward after a strong finish to 2015.”

Ladder: 13th (5 wins, 7 losses, 84.7%)
Wins: Carlton, Sydney, Fremantle, Essendon, Gold Coast
Losses: Collingwood, Adelaide, West Coast, Melbourne, Port, Hawthorn, North

Richmond are probably the second biggest disappointment of the season behind Fremantle, not only going to miss the finals after three consecutive appearances, including two fifth-place finishes, but potentially going to win less games than the 8.5 and 10.5 they delivered in coach Damien Hardwick’s second and third seasons in charge.

Given he is in the seventh year of his contract now, it’s not the right time to be wandering with vaguely aimless intentions.

The fall from grace has been swift, brutal and not entirely surprising, having occurred off the back of yet another slow start and a philosophy and game style that doesn’t allow their guns to bring the team with them.

Hardwick’s biggest failing is that his players seem over-coached, both in the way they play and how they talk about the game. Hardwick drowns under the weight of statistics, seeking numeric answers to problems that can only be solved by intangibles, and the players talk about process improvement in a bloodless way that fails to inspire supporters or themselves.

The Tigers have delivered some little ticks along the way, such as Corey Ellis and Daniel Rioli providing some brightness in the dark, but they are clouded by overall uncertainty and mixed messages being delivered from within.

AFL no-man’s land. Population: Richmond

Predicted wins: 8-9
Predicted ladder: 13th
All-Australian contenders: Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Alex Rance, Jack Riewoldt

St Kilda
Pre-season right: “Time is on Richardson’s side as he continues to build this team. Progress for lower sides isn’t always linear in ladder terms, and the Saints might go back a spot or two this season. But fans can be confident they’re on the right track.”

Pre-season wrong: Calling Tim Membrey a good VFL player only.

Ladder: 12th (5 wins, 7 losses, 86.6%)
Wins: Collingwood, Melbourne, Essendon, Fremantle, Carlton
Losses: Port, Bulldogs, Hawthorn, GWS, North, West Coast, Adelaide

It’s been hard to get an accurate gauge on where St Kilda sits in the pecking order, particularly given they’ve won a few games as underdogs, but also suffered two frightful thumpings interstate, to West Coast by 103 points and Adelaide by 88 points.

These losses have been harder to stomach given they have gone against the grain of what the Saints appear to be building – honest and uncompromising effort, while steadily trying to close the gap in class through the draft and canny trading.

Yet, the Saints are actually quite easy to place. As it stands, against the top nine teams they have a 0-7 record. Against the rest of the competition, they have a 5-0 record.

The club wasn’t at rock bottom when Alan Richardson first came to the club for season 2013, but that came quickly enough in 2014 when they finished last with four wins, winning only one of their last 17 matches.

When you finish last, a good rule of thumb is to ask for 50 per cent improvement over the next couple of years, which St Kilda will deliver. They went from four wins in 2014 to six in 2015, and should deliver at least nine in 2016. That is a tangible improvement, and confirmation they are tracking in the right direction.

Their improvement will be incremental as they decrease reliance on ageing guns like Sam Fisher, Sean Dempster, Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna, and bleed them out of the club over time.

Predicted wins: 9-10
Predicted ladder: 11th
All-Australian contenders: Nick Riewoldt, Jack Steven