We are just past the halfway mark of the season and the shape of the ladder is starting to take shape, with the Geelong Cats sitting on top of the ladder on percentage and Essendon, as expected, anchoring it.
For the second consecutive weekend, only six matches will be played as Essendon, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, the Sydney Swans, West Coast Eagles and Western Bulldogs get to sit back and relax without the pressure of playing football.
While Round 14 might not have a blockbuster match, one match to watch will be that between the Adelaide Crows and North Melbourne in what is a rematch of their first round match at Etihad Stadium, which the Roos won by ten points.
It is the only match this round that features two sides currently in the eight, and it kicks off my preview of the round.
Adelaide Crows versus North Melbourne
The first of four consecutive mid-season Thursday night fixtures will see the Adelaide Crows host North Melbourne in a match which will prove crucial to the finals hopes of both clubs.
While the Crows had the week off, the Kangaroos dropped their third match in four weeks when they went down to triple-reigning premiers Hawthorn by nine points. They were far from disgraced when you consider the number of players they had out.
That has seen them lose the outright competition lead, though they still lead the ladder jointly with the Geelong Cats, Hawthorn and the Sydney Swans, to whom their three losses have come against.
Now, they will face the Adelaide Crows for the second time in 2016, having already defeated them by ten points in Round 1. However, facing them at the Oval is no easy task, with Don Pyke’s men having only lost once at home this season.
Additionally, the last meeting between the two clubs at the City of Churches did not end well for Brad Scott’s men, who were on the wrong end of a 77-point thrashing the opening round of last season.
That added to the Roos’ poor record against the Crows in Adelaide, where they have not beaten them since 2003. Though the Kangaroos should get a host of players, including captain Andrew Swallow, back from injury, it won’t boost their chances of defeating the Crows twice in one season for the first time since 1999.
Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 26 points.
Collingwood versus Fremantle
Having won their last three games to move off the bottom of the ladder, Fremantle will be out to make it four in a row when they face Collingwood at the MCG in their first Friday night match for the season.
After three years in the top four, the Dockers’ inevitable downfall came when they dropped their first ten games, but huge wins over fellow cellar dwellers Essendon and the Brisbane Lions, and a 17-point win over Port Adelaide at home, as seen them move up to 15th on the ladder.
This leaves them with a 3-10 season record, which is the same record Richmond had after Round 14 in 2014, which should give some Dockers fans some faint hope of a late and unlikely charge towards September.
That being said, from here on in every match is a virtual final for Ross Lyon’s men, which means a loss could all but certainly eliminate them from finals calculations, thus completing the club’s fall from grace.
This Friday night they face a Collingwood side that has failed to live up to expectations this season.
On the back of a strong recruitment drive, many expected the Pies to return to the finals this season, but a drugs scandal on the eve of the season and an 80-point loss to the Sydney Swans in Round 1 set the tone for its’ horrid season to date.
Nathan Buckley’s men sit 14th on the ladder with just four wins for the year, and while they are fresh off the bye their last outing resulted in a disappointing 46-point loss to Melbourne in the Queen’s Birthday clash.
It was their third defeat in a row, meaning they haven’t won since upsetting the Geelong Cats by 24 points in Round 9.
Thus, if the Pies are to arrest their form slump and keep their faint finals hopes alive, they must rediscover that form from the win over the Cats a month ago and deliver their best football against the Dockers, who have won their last three against the Pies but haven’t beaten them at the MCG in nearly a decade.
Prediction: Collingwood by six points.
Richmond versus Brisbane Lions
Hopefully the week off has given Richmond the time to reflect on what has been a rollercoaster of a season so far.
The Tigers started the season with a rather unconvincing nine-point victory over Carlton before proceeding to lose its next six games. However, four victories in the five matches that preceded their bye has rekindled hope for the club of a fourth consecutive finals series, and a long-awaited first finals victory since 2001.
This Saturday afternoon Damien Hardwick’s men will resume their season against the Brisbane Lions, who have won just one game for the year and have lost their last nine games by an average margin of 54.6 points.
The Lions’ poor form this season has put third-year coach (and former Richmond assistant coach) Justin Leppitsch under massive pressure but the club has guaranteed that he will see out his contract to the end of the 2017 season.
But what hasn’t helped their cause is a crippling injury toll which has claimed its latest victim, with Tom Bell to undergo knee surgery and miss the remainder of the season.
They will also have to contend with a very poor recent record against the Tigers, having tasted victory against them just once in the past decade, which as a matter of fact was here at the MCG in 2009.
That being said, the Tigers should prevail but just by how much will be the question.
Prediction: Richmond by 24 points.
GWS Giants versus Carlton
The GWS Giants’ final match before their bye next weekend will give them the chance to bank a tenth victory and set themselves up for the second half of the season.
After a slow start against Essendon last Sunday night, the Giants clicked into top gear in the second half to win by 27 points, with their efforts being helped by a four-goal haul by reformed midfielder Toby Greene.
While they will again start favourites against Carlton this Saturday night, they will be aware of a side that is exceeding expectations this season and have former number one draft pick Bryce Gibbs playing his 200th game.
After losing their first four games of the season, the Blues compiled a 6-2 record over the eight-week period preceding their Round 13 bye to currently be sitting 11th on the ladder.
Gibbs has said that the Blues will need to bring the intensity to beat the Giants, who have won their last three meetings by an average of 55.6 points, including by 81 points in their last meeting in Round 22 last year.
But on the basis of the Giants’ impressive form this season, it’ll be hard to see the Blues springing an upset in what is their first of two visits to Sydney this year.
Prediction: GWS Giants by 34 points.
St Kilda versus Geelong Cats
After missing the finals for the first time since 2006 last year, the Geelong Cats have re-emerged as premiership favourites this year and it’s hard not to see why.
The Cats have won ten of its thirteen matches this season and their impressive form has been attributed to the instant impact that recruit Patrick Dangerfield has made since arriving from the Adelaide Crows during the off-season.
The 26-year-old backed up his best-on-ground display against North Melbourne with an equally impressive performance against the Western Bulldogs, storming into Brownlow Medal favouritism in the process.
Again he will be the centre of attention when the Cats travel up to Etihad Stadium for the third week in a row to face a St Kilda side that is fresh off the bye, before which it defeated Carlton by 32 points to win its fifth game for the season.
It will be their first meeting since the two sides fought out a dramatic draw in the corresponding match last season, when a Shane Savage behind on the run tied the scores at 97-apiece when a goal would’ve given the Saints their first win over the Cats since the 2010 finals series.
That result proved fatal to ending the Cats’ eight-year finals streak, but the break from September might be just what they needed after a sustained period of dominance in which it won three flags from four grand final appearances.
The result was a longer pre-season from which the players are reaping the benefits of, with the result being that they are sitting on top of the ladder with a 10-3 record with the best percentage in the league, and the second-best defence (only the Sydney Swans have conceded less points).
Thus, it won’t be any surprise that the Cats will start favourites this Saturday night to continue their dominance against the Saints, which stretches back to 2011.
Prediction: Geelong Cats by 40 points.
Hawthorn versus Gold Coast Suns
The final match of the round will see Hawthorn play the third of its four contracted games in Launceston against the Gold Coast Suns in the only match on Sunday afternoon.
While Alastair Clarkson’s men jointly lead the competition with the Geelong Cats, North Melbourne and the Sydney Swans, their percentage of 118.4 per cent is currently the lowest of any team currently placed in the eight.
A 75-point loss to the GWS Giants in Round 6, their heaviest defeat since 2009, has so far proven to be the culprit, while their two other defeats came by 30 and 14 points against the Cats and Swans in rounds one and nine respectively.
The Hawks will get the chance to again boost their percentage when they face the Suns, who after such a promising start to the season have lost their last nine games but will be refreshed having enjoyed their bye last week.
Prior to the week off the Suns pushed Richmond at the MCG all the way but faded in the final quarter to lose by 17 points in a performance coach Rodney Eade described as “unacceptable”.
They’ll also need to put in the biggest performance of their short history if they are to upset the Hawks, who not only have won all seven of their previous meetings against the Suns but are also undefeated in Launceston since Round 5, 2012.
And with their bye to come the following week, don’t expect the Hawks to show any signs of complacence, or mercy, against the 16th-placed Suns.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 38 points.
Bye: Essendon, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Sydney Swans, West Coast Eagles, Western Bulldogs
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