There is no better time to look back on the season so far than the bye period. Including analysing pre-season predictions.
So after delving into six teams last week, let’s check out the next bunch in line.
Pre-season right: “Zach Merrett is a Bomber with some class, and is capable of entering the upper echelon of players throughout this season. He’s the one to watch.”
Pre-season wrong: “A three- or four-win season is within their grasp.”
Ladder: 18th (1 win, 12 losses, 56.09%)
Wins: Melbourne
Losses: Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Collingwood, Carlton, Sydney, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Richmond, Fremantle, Hawthorn, GWS
There’s not much to be said about the Bombers, with the season unfolding basically as everyone predicted. They’re struggling to score, and while they were able to keep their defence in check in the early rounds, the bottom of that has dropped out too.
They’ve come under fire for a possession game (Essendon are ranked number two in total disposals) that is more about damage control than attack, but such criticism is misplaced. If they were to try and employ a quicker style that left them exposed down back, you know they’d be attacked for allowing such monster scores to be kicked against them.
The positives are the continued emergence of Merrett, and David Zaharakis having his finest season, both of which are important for 2017 and beyond. Darcy Parish is in rising star contention, and Orazio Fantasia should be nominated soon enough. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti has been the find of the season, with his dashing run and hard-hitting.
Patrick Ambrose has the makings of a good third tall backman when (if) Michael Hurley and Cale Hooker come back. Putting aside dodgy kicking which is always going to be there, Joe Daniher has been very good under enormous strain, and Mitch Brown is proving a savvy pick-up that can add to the team next year and beyond.
Essendon fans just have to grit their teeth and get through the year, which they’ve been doing admirably. Players, support staff and fans are more than halfway through a character-building season. There is light at the end of the tunnel.
Predicted wins: 1-2
Predicted ladder: 18th
All-Australian contenders: Zach Merrett, David Zaharakis
Pre-season right: “There’s a bit to be positive about with Melbourne, always remembering how low a base they’re coming off. They are improving steadily, and can be expected to again.”
Pre-season wrong: “The Demon forward-line starts with Jesse Hogan and ends with Jeff Garlett.”
Ladder: tenth (6 wins, 7 losses, 103.73%)
Wins: GWS, Collingwood, Richmond, Gold Coast, Brisbane, Collingwood
Losses: Essendon, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney
Melbourne continue to track with steady improvement, and this will be the third year in a row they have increased their number of wins, from two in 2013, four in 2014 and seven in 2015. They should end this year at the 9-10 win mark.
Apart from Carlton’s rise and Fremantle’s fall, the third biggest surprise of the season has been the Demons scoring power, averaging more than 100 points a game after going at 61 and 72 in the previous two years under Paul Roos.
As I wrote back in May, Melbourne are on the rise. Apart from their two-point victory over GWS in Round 1, every other win has been by 34 points or more, with a couple of 10-12 goal thumpings as well.
Demon supporters were even heard to bemoan a poor ten goal win over Brisbane earlier this year. It’s a mindset far removed from the Mark Neeld era, when ten-goal losses could be counted as positive.
Melbourne have had their bad days, with losses to Essendon and St Kilda counting as their most disappointing performances. The Saints are their hoodoo team having beaten them 13 times in a row, and their Round 17 rematch is the most important game in the second half of the year from a Demon perspective.
The Dees are on the right path, and should continue on. More games into their youngsters is important for the rest of the season, as well as picking up wins along the way.
Predicted wins: 9-10
Predicted ladder: 11th
All-Australian contenders: Bernie Vince
Pre-season right: “Do we overrate the Power players based on the spread of talent that we see, demanding a consistency they’re not capable of?”
Pre-season wrong: Predicted position of 14th.
Ladder: ninth (6 wins, 7 losses, 108.15%)
Wins: St Kilda, Essendon, Richmond, Brisbane, Melbourne, Collingwood
Losses: Adelaide, GWS, Geelong, Carlton, West Coast, Bulldogs, Fremantle
Port have had five cracks at top eight teams so far this season, and come up short in all of them, even against an ailing Bulldog outfit at home in Round 12.
They’ve beaten their share of bottom ten sides, but even then can’t do so consistently, dropping matches to Carlton and Fremantle, albeit both when travelling interstate. All that reinforces is they belong in the middle of the road, and any pretentions to finals were never realistic.
They should finish ninth as the ‘best of the rest’, but the gap between eighth and ninth this year is stark, and could be up to three wins once the home-and-away season is done.
The Power made their name under Ken Hinkley as the hardest running and quickest ball moving team in the league, but others have since joined and overtaken them, leaving them unable to keep the pace.
Winning the ball at the coalface isn’t a problem for Port, ranked fifth for contested possession, with Ollie Wines, Robbie Gray, Travis Boak and Brad Ebert all willing to get their hands dirty. The problem is that these four are relied upon for outside run as well, and the Power rank 16th for uncontested possession. Too much is left to too few, with Port not batting deep enough through the middle.
They’re not getting enough out of the likes of Hamish Hartlett and Jared Polec, and they need to inject more run and talent in order to contend in future years.
Predicted wins: 10-11
Predicted ladder: ninth
All-Australian contenders: Jasper Pittard
Pre-season right: “Tippett doesn’t get the respect he deserves given he is far and away the best player in his role in the league.”
Pre-season wrong: “The second half of the eight feels like their destiny in season 2016.”
Ladder: second (10 wins, 3 losses, 140.89%)
Wins: Collingwood, Carlton, GWS, West Coast, Brisbane, Essendon, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Gold Coast, Melbourne
Losses: Adelaide, Richmond, GWS
Sydney have been defying predictions of their demise almost since Captain Cook stepped off the Endeavour. It’s worth noting they have missed the finals only once since 2002, and again look a legitimate contender for the flag.
Sydney averaged 88 points per game last year, while conceding 72. They’ve lifted their scoring power by ten points a match, while reducing their scores against too. They’re a two-goal-a-game better side then when they finished fourth on the home-and-away ladder, which confirms that a top two finish beckons if they’re good enough. As an aside, Hawthorn are about four goals worse on these basic measures.
The Swans midfield continues to bat deep and win plenty of football, led by Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker in close, with Dan Hannebery and Tom Mitchell providing balance between inside and outside.
The one thing Sydney lack is a game-breaking outside runner, a role that Lewis Jetta fulfilled to such great effect in their 2012 premiership year. Jake Lloyd plays that role now, but needs to add a more attacking bent to his play.
Heath Grundy and Dane Rampe have been excellent down back, complemented by the surety of Jarrad McVeigh, who is quietly working his way into form after a late start to the year. Youngsters Callum Mills and Zak Jones have thrived on responsibility.
Kurt Tippett will be a huge loss, but the addition of Callum Sinclair over the off-season now seems a masterstroke, and it will be interesting to see how he goes with the number one responsibility for the first time in his career.
While Buddy Franklin maintains his touch up forward, Sydney will remain a flag threat. Isaac Heeney is going through a quiet patch at the moment, which is to be expected in his second year as he approaches game number 30. Possibly the most naturally talented player in the AFL, a big August and September from him could be the key to the Swans’ flag hopes.
Predicted wins: 16-17
Predicted ladder: third
All-Australian contenders: Lance Franklin, Heath Grundy, Dan Hannebery, Josh Kennedy, Tom Mitchell, Luke Parker, Dane Rampe
Pre-season right: “There is no more devastating tap ruckman in the game (than Nic Nat), and his follow-up work with the ball on the ground is unmatched. He has every chance to put together a career season this year.”
Pre-season wrong: “They couldn’t end the home-and-away season with any less than 15 wins. In 2016… they’re the team to beat.”
Ladder: seventh (8 wins, 5 losses, 128.93%)
Wins: Brisbane, Fremantle, Richmond, Collingwood, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast
Losses: Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong, Bulldogs, Adelaide
West Coast are the flat-track bullies of the competition, or front-runners as Ryan Buckland likes to call them. The language used is merely semantics, and all are agreed that they have been a disappointment of season 2016.
The Eagles’ battle isn’t between home and away, as many have assumed, but it is a question of quality. They’ve lost every match they’ve played against their fellow top eight. They’ve won every match they’ve played against the bottom ten. Regardless of venue.
If that run continues, they’ll end up on 13 wins. An away game against Carlton in Round 17 would be the only game they’re in danger of losing against the bottom ten. Facing North and Hawthorn in Perth, in Rounds 16 and 22 respectively, represents their best chance to claim a top-eight scalp.
West Coast are going to need to win eight of their last nine games to finish in the top four, and even that might not be enough. More likely is the idea that they will need to win four finals on the road in order to claim the premiership cup. No.
Like Port, the Eagles don’t have enough ball winners, which finds them out against the better sides. They are two of three sides to have only four players averaging 20 or more touches a game. West Coast’s inside game will suffer with Naitanui out injured for an extended period too.
Predicted wins: 13-14
Predicted ladder: eighth
All-Australian contenders: Josh Kennedy, Jeremy McGovern
Pre-season right: “Most will pick the Western Bulldogs to slide, and the bookies have them tenth in the betting for a top-four spot. You can bet Beveridge doesn’t see it. He’ll have something up his sleeve if people think other clubs have worked the Dogs out.”
Pre-season wrong: “The Dogs will have a multi-pronged forward line that will continue to create match-up problems for a lot of defences.”
Ladder: sixth (9 wins, 4 losses, 119.75%)
Wins: Fremantle, St Kilda, Carlton, Brisbane, Adelaide, Melbourne, Collingwood, West Coast, Port Adelaide
Losses: Hawthorn, North Melbourne, GWS, Geelong
The Western Bulldogs have gone about their business most impressively this year and have been something of a quiet achiever in the last couple of months after opening the season as the sexiest team in the comp.
They’ve had to battle injury after injury to their backline runners, starting with the season-ending ACL to skipper Bob Murphy, and losing Jason Johannisen, Easton Wood and Matt Suckling for chunks of games along the way.
Even though this season has been higher scoring across the board, the Dogs have actually dropped from 96 to 88 points per game, with their forward-line not as dangerous as it had previously been. The absence of Stewart Crameri may be a contributing factor.
Last season the Dogs relied more on rebounds from defence to an open forward line where their canny forwards could find space. This year they seem to be generating more repeat inside 50s, meaning the opposition is caught back and crowding their 50-metre area.
Still, the Dogs are the best at strangling opposition teams, both around the ball and from scoring, and their injury list is starting to diminish, although the loss of Luke Dahlhaus will be felt, with his combination of pressure and ball smarts unmatched at the Dogs.
The Dogs are in the mix for a top-four finish, and if they can get to finals with a healthy list, they have the weapons of Marcus Bontempelli and Jake Stringer that could explode on the September stage.
Predicted wins: 16
Predicted ladder: fourth
All-Australian contenders: Marcus Bontempelli, Matthew Boyd, Luke Dahlhaus, Lachie Hunter, Jack Macrae, Dale Morris
Cam Rose predicted ladder:
1.
2.
3. Sydney
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Adelaide
6.
7.
8. West Coast
9. Port Adelaide
10. Carlton
11. Melbourne
12. St Kilda
13. Richmond
14. Collingwood
15.
16. Gold Coast
17.
18. Essendon
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