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Let’s check out this week’s best bets for the punters.
Adelaide versus North Melbourne
The first of four consecutive Thursday night games sees the Adelaide Crows host the North Melbourne Kangaroos.
The Crows defeated the West Coast Eagles in a very impressive manner before having the bye last weekend, while the Roos failed to convert their dominance onto the scoreboard, with inaccurate kicking resulting in a narrow loss to Hawthorn last Friday night.
There has been talk of Adelaide’s current forward line being its best ever, a bold claim given the likes of Darren Jarman and Tony Modra starring in their two premiership wins.
However, the numbers are mounting a good case as the Crows lead the league in points a game. Eddie Betts, Josh Jenkins and Taylor Walker all rank in the top ten of the Coleman Medal. They rank third in inside 50s, second in contested marks and fourth in marks inside 50 and present a challenge to a North team that has the staggers.
North will look at the Hawks loss as an opportunity missed, but they have lost three of their last four games all against fellow top eight teams. The positive is that they have won the inside 50 count in two of those three games and welcome back Andrew Swallow and Ben Cunnington but will be without Daniel Wells and Jarrad Waite.
The contested style of Cunnington and Swallow will come in handy against a Crows side that ranks fourth in contested possession differential, but the loss of Wells will hurt as the Crows are also an impressive sixth in uncontested possession differential.
The Crows should be too strong in front of a capacity Adelaide Oval crowd as they continue their push towards a top four spot.
Best Bet: Adelaide head-to-head @ $1.35
Feeling Lucky: Total points over 135.5 @ $1.88
Collingwood versus Fremantle
Friday night football returns to the MCG as the Fremantle Dockers make their one and only trip to the ground this season to take on Collingwood. The Dockers come in on a three-game winning streak, while the Magpies will be looking to atone for a putrid performance against Melbourne on the Queen’s Birthday.
These teams have clashed at this ground just once since 2009 with Collingwood winning by 29 points in 2012. Three weeks ago this shaped as a comfortable win for the Pies but the Dockers have won three straight games, averaging more than 400 possessions and 125 points per game in the process.
Surprisingly the Magpies have won just three of nine games at the MCG this season and while they start the game as favourites they cannot be selected with any confidence.
Collingwood rank dead last in the league in clearances per game and 14th in clearances differential, and while the Dickers rank just 12th in clearances per game they rank sixth in differential and are +19 in this category over the last three games.
Michael Barlow is born again as a run-with player for Fremantle, having had 43 possessions last weekend and shut Robbie Gray out of the game after having done similar jobs on Daniel Rich and David Zaharakis in the previous fortnight. He will likely get the job on Adam Treloar this weekend.
Best Bet: Fremantle +24.5 @ $1.23
Feeling Lucky: Fremantle head-to-head @ $2.00
Richmond versus Brisbane
Saturday afternoon at the MCG will see the Brisbane Lions travel to take on Richmond. The Lions are currently enduring a nine-game losing streak and have suffered consecutive listless thrashings at home, while the Tigers have won four of five as their season has a pulse.
Through 11 games the Lions were simply struggling to get their hands on the ball, and they have changed their game style over the last fortnight as they have tallied 848 possessions in losses to the Eagles and Dockers.
Their total possession differential remains the worst in the league, but has improved by almost 25 possessions per game. They rank 15th in disposal efficiency, and while the Tigers are mid-table in this category they have won the battle in four of their last five games.
The Lions rank last in clearance differential, an indictment on what is a talented midfield group; the Tigers have won this category in three of their last five games and will be confident of extending their current nine-game winning streak against the Lions.
Star Richmond trio Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin and Brett Deledio traditionally perform strongly against the Lions – all three average more than 30 possessions in their last three games against Brisbane.
Best Bet: Richmond head-to-head @ $1.12
Feeling Lucky: Richmond 1-39 points @ $2.55
Greater Western Sydney versus Carlton
The Greater Western Sydney Giants will be looking to head into their bye round in style as they take on Carlton at home. The Blues will be looking to return to the positive side of the ledger following a disappointing pre-bye loss to St Kilda, while the Giants were unconvincing in sleepwalking their way to a narrow win against Essendon last weekend.
The race for a top four spot is on in earnest and the Giants will be looking to address their below par performance last weekend. They will enter this game full of confidence having won their six home games thus far in 2016 and also having defeated the Blues twice in 2015 by 81 and 78 points.
The Giants tallied 74 and 80 inside 50 entries in those clashes, and have a forward line that ranks fourth in inside 50s and first in total points scored. They may find the going tougher against a vastly improved Carlton side that has conceded 100 or more points on just three occasions this season.
The improvement of GWS is largely due to their midfield dominance; they rank second in clearance differential, fourth in contested possession differential and second in uncontested possession differential. Conversely, the Blues rank 17th, 12th and seventh in those categories and will be hard pushed to break even with such a talent disparity.
Best Bet: GWS 15.5+ @ $1.21
Feeling Lucky: GWS 40+ @ $1.71
St Kilda versus Geelong
The red-hot, ladder-leading Geelong Cats will look to head into their mid-season bye on a high as they take on St Kilda at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night. The Cats were impressive in dismantling the Western Bulldogs last weekend, while the Saints notched their fourth win of the season against Carlton a fortnight ago before having a bye last weekend.
The Cats have responded to lacklustre losses to Carlton and Collingwood in Rounds 9 and 10 in style, defeating fellow top eight sides the GSW Giants, North Melbourne and the Bulldogs over the last three weeks.
Leading the charge has been the brilliant Patrick Dangerfield, who ranks second in possessions per game, fourth in contested possessions per game and tenth in clearances per game. Dangerfield has averaged 39 possessions (19 contested) and a goal a game over the last three games and is playing at a level rarely seen in the modern era.
Geelong are far from a one-man team, as they rank first in inside 50 differential, third in clearance differential, third in contested possession differential and fourth in uncontested possession differential.
They could scarcely have been more impressive over the last three weeks and will be wary of letdown heading into the bye against an inconsistent but dangerous Saints team that has shown as much promise as they have caused frustration among their fans.
The danger for the Saints is that they will find it hard to get their hands on the ball; while the Cats are strong in the aforementioned areas the Saints rank in the bottom half of the league in clearance, uncontested and contested possession differential.
With a full complement of defenders they would give themselves a fighting chance of stopping the versatile Cats forward line, but the absence of Sean Dempster and Sam Fisher could prove a knockout blow.
Best Bet: Geelong head-to-head @ $1.18
Feeling Lucky: Geelong 40+ @ $2.10
Hawthorn versus Gold Coast
The sole Sunday game in Round 14 sees the three-time reigning premier Hawthorn host Gold Coast in Tasmania. Despite being well below their best, the Hawks rallied to defeat against the then ladder leading North Melbourne, while the Suns are coming off the bye looking to end a nine-game losing streak.
The Hawks’ recent record at Aurora Stadium is flawless; they have won their last 17 games at the ground and 24 of their last 25 there. They have played Fremantle and St Kilda there this season, winning both games but just sneaking over the line against the Saints.
The Suns have played just three games at the ground, losing by an average of 59 points. Gold Coast’s injury list is significant and they will rely heavily on captain Gary Ablett and key forward Tom Lynch to perform strongly. Ablett has been below his normal brilliant best this season, while Lynch has been frustratingly inconsistent and has traditionally struggled against the Hawks.
To be competitive, the Suns will need to be efficient going forward as they rank 17th in possession differential and last in inside 50 differential, conceding almost 15 more inside 50s than their opponents.
Given the Suns have passed 65 points just once in their last five games against Hawthorn, and the Hawks rank fourth in points per game this season, it looks to a be road too tough for the Gold Coast.
Best Bet: Hawthorn 24.5+ @ $1.23
Feeling Lucky: Hawthorn 60+ @ $2.15
Cheers, fellas, enjoy the weekend on the punt.
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