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Predicting the run home for the AFL top eight

Roar Guru
23rd June, 2016
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In a tough season for Freo, Lachie Neale has proided a ray of hope. (AAP Image/Tony McDonough)
Roar Guru
23rd June, 2016
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1719 Reads

Given that hardly anything separates first to sixth on the AFL ladder (and seventh to eighth are snapping at the heels), I thought it would be interesting to do some star-gazing with a view to predict how the AFL ladder would pan out at the end season 2016.

I will admit from the outset there is not a lot of science behind this – very much a cursory look at home ground advantage, current ladder position and how each team has been trending over the last few weeks.

I have also assumed that the top eight is now set – Port and Melbourne have to play too much catch-up from here on. Richmond, as I have written previously, have ninth for the taking.

From the analysis below, it would appear I have been very hard on North Melbourne (as have many this year). Many will also argue I have also been overly kind to Fremantle, banking on them to defeat Geelong (their only loss on my radar heading into the finals), Sydney, and the Bulldogs at Subi – three big upsets.

So here is the win-loss column, and also each team’s final tally.

Team 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 FINAL
Geel Win (STk) Bye Win (Syd) Loss (Fre) Win (Adel) Win (WB) Win (Ess) Win (Rich) Win (Bris) Win (Melb)  
40 44 44 48 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 72
Syd Bye Win (WB) Loss (Gee) Win (Haw) Win (Carl) Loss (Fre) Win (Port) Win (StK) Win (North) Win (Rich)  
40 40 44 44 48 52 52 56 60 64 68 68
North M Loss (Adel) Bye Loss (WCE) Win (Port) Win (Coll) Win (StK) Loss (WB) Loss (Haw) Loss (Syd) Win (GWS)  
40 40 40 40 44 48 52 52 52 52 56 56
Haw Win (GC) Bye Win (Port) Loss (Syd) Win (Rich) Win (Carl) Win (Melb) Win (NM) Loss (WC) Win (Coll)  
40 44 44 48 48 52 56 60 64 64 68 68
GWS Win (Carl) Bye Win (Coll) Win (Bris) Win (Port) Win (Rich) Win (G.C) Win (W.C) Win (Fre) Loss (North)  
36 40 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 68 68
W.B. Bye Loss (Syd) Win (Rich) Win (G.C) Win (StK) Loss (Gee) Win (NM) Win (Coll) Win (Ess) Loss (Fre)  
36 36 36 40 44 48 48 52 56 60 60 60
W.C Bye Win (Ess) Win (NM) Win (Carl) Win (Melb) Win (Coll) Win (Freo) Loss (GWS) Win (Haw) Loss (Ade)  
32 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 56 60 60 60
Adel Win (NM) Win (Melb) Win (Carl) Win (Coll) Loss (Gee) Win (Ess) Win (Bris) Win (Fre) Win (Port) Win (WC)  
32 36 40 44 48 48 52 56 60 64 68 68

 

There are a few things to take away.

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• Over the back-half of the season, GWS and Adelaide have a great chance to climb into the top four. GWS do not play a top eight team until Round 21.

• There may never have been a greater emphasis on percentage than this season – I have GWS ahead of Sydney, Adelaide and Hawthorn (poor comparably) in this respect.

• While improving Fremantle won’t feature as finalists in 2016, they have four huge home games against Geelong, Sydney, Adelaide and the Bulldogs – this will have a significant bearing on the top four and a role for them to be party-poopers.

• Round 23 has three cracking games – Fremantle (the emotion of Matthew Pavlich’s last match) versus the Bulldogs, GWS versus North Melbourne, and Adelaide versus West Coast.

• North Melbourne play the Bulldogs, Sydney, Hawthorn and GWS in the last four rounds. The Swans versus Kangaroos match in Tasmania in Round 22 is arguably the top-four circuit breaker for the red and white.

• With the volume of clutch games in the last couple of rounds, we may not be hearing much of the dreaded ‘R’ (resting) word this year.

Over to you, Roarers to pick the final positions in the eight, with my eight below. My attempt sees a tantalising first round of finals matches come September, including a big brother-little brother clash in Sydney at Spotless.

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Ladder
Geelong – 72
GWS – 68
Sydney – 68
Adelaide – 68
Hawthorn – 68
West Coast – 60
Western Bulldogs – 60
North Melbourne – 56

It is going to be an absorbing race home.

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