As the State of Origin affected period continues we have seven matches in Round 16. Less football is never good news, but what is good news is that this column is in good form having picked up 15 of the last 19 tips.
Let’s check out Round 16!
Last week’s tips: three from four, running tip total 70/111.
Panthers versus Souths
Enjoying a bye last week the Panthers’ last outing was in Round 14 where they ruffled Manly’s feathers to win 31-24 at Brookvale Oval after being down 24-4.
A creative side has once again been selected – there is an enormous potential for points. The club will also be boosted by the news English international Zak Hardaker is on his way to the mountains.
Souths are in a precarious position at present. They have lost their past three matches and have now lost talismanic half back Adam Reynolds to a shoulder injury. Tautalatasi Tasi has been sensational for the Bears in the NSW Cup this season and gets a deserved debut on the wing.
It is likely that Cody Walker will shift into the halves with Alex Johnston moving to half back and Dane Nielsen returning to the starting team on the wing to compensate Reynolds’ injury.
The Rabbitohs hold a winning 5-2 recent history over the Panthers.
Tip: Panthers 1-12
Knights versus Dragons
The Knights have been bolstered in recent weeks by the acquisition of several mid-season transfers. Sadly this has done little to affect their form – the Novocastrians’ two most recent outings resulting in 46-16 and 50-14 defeats to the Cowboys and Warriors respectively.
Frighteningly the most likely scenario is that Dane Gagai will end up with more Origin victories in 2016 than NRL victories.
While Newcastle have gained several mid-season transfers they lost one of their co-captains in the form of Tariq Sims. However, Newcastle were smart enough to implement a clause that prevents the new Dragons second rower from taking the field this week.
Tyson Frizell, however, should be a late inclusion for the Red V after a scintillating origin debut. Josh Dugan is another likely late inclusion that would greatly enhance the Dragons attack.
Tip: Dragons 13+
Sharks versus Warriors
Cronulla are ladder leaders after 15 competition rounds having won ten consecutive matches. That is an incredible feat. Their last victory came against reigning premiers the Cowboys in a 13-10 thriller at Remondis Stadium. With no injury concerns and a home match the boys from the shire are in prime position to make it 11 on the trot.
Despite being the most frustrating and inconsistent team in professional sports the Warriors appear to have finally got on a roll, collecting three straight victories. However don’t read too much into their recent form.
Their victories came over a severely weakened and fatigued Broncos outfit that utilised Josh McGuire as a hooker, the hapless Newcastle Knights and similarly flightless Roosters.
Despite their struggles of previous seasons, the Sharks have an excellent record against the Warriors winning six of eight recent clashes.
Tip: Sharks 13+
Dogs versus Broncos
The Dogs have been up and down all season but have managed to win three of their last five. That said, two of those victories were against the lowly placed Wests Tigers and Roosters with their third victory coming over the Dragons whose points differential is 15th.
By the same token, though, the Broncos have struggled in recent weeks winning just two from their last five. However it is important to note that with their full complement of players (or when not impacted by Origin) their record during this period improves to two from three with their only loss coming to the Cowboys 19-18. If all of their Origin stars back up, Brisbane should get the job done in a close encounter.
Tip: Broncos 1-12
Titans versus Raiders
This is perhaps the toughest match of the round to call. The Titans have been in great form recently winning four of their past five matches. They will be sweating on Greg Bird backing up from Origin who appeared to be injured in the late stages of Wednedays’ clash.
The key for a Titans victory in this game is to play up and in defence against the Raiders’ edges – allowing BJ Leilua and Josh Papalii to wind up could be catastrophic.
The Raiders have been in reasonable form over the past month and a half, holding a 5-5 record. The key for Canberra to win this match will come through their monstrous forward pack. If they can dominate the Titans’ forwards and achieve quick play the balls that will allow space for their equally large edge players to wind up and wreak havoc.
That means Josh Hodgson will become the key determinant in this match – if he receives quick play the balls no one is more damaging out of dummy half whether running or giving quality ball to the fringes. If Hodgson is offered this the Raiders should win.
Tip: Raiders 1-12
Storm versus Tigers
The Melbourne machine keeps clicking into gear despite a litany of injuries plaguing the Victorian club. It truly is a credit to the wonderful culture and coaching prowess that stems from Craig Bellamy.
The scary thing about the Storm is that there is no key element to this side obtaining a win. They are essentially a bunch of ants all working for the betterment of the colony, if the big ants can’t barge through their obstacle, the smart ants figure out that the little ants will need to find a new path to produce results. I may have watched A Bugs Life recently… nonetheless, the Storm always find a way.
Despite years of pain for Tigers fans they have a surprisingly good record against the Storm. The recent history between these two sides is a 5-3 record favouring the Storm – one of the better efforts of the 16 NRL teams.
The Tigers are massive underdogs going into this match and that is a tag they have always enjoyed. It’s a simple equation for the gold, black and whites in this clash – play football. If they get sucked into the machine-like approach of the Storm they will get hammered. But if they throw the ball around and play creatively then an upset is a very real possibility.
Tip: Storm 1-12
Cowboys versus Sea Eagles
Despite winning only two of their last five the Cowboys are still on a roll. How? Well, they suffered a one-point loss to a brilliant Storm outfit in Round 10 and then followed that up with a brilliant one-point win against the Broncos in Round 12.
They lost to the Dragons with six players missing on Origin duty, thrashed Newcastle by 30 with their players back on deck and then were pipped at the post in Round 14 by the table-topping Sharks for their tenth consecutive win.
So any suggestion of a mid-season form slump is ludicrous. Not only that but the Cowboys have won their past four encounters against Manly.
The Sea Eagles are very lucky the Knights are in the predicament they are at this point in time or they would be odds on for the wooden spoon. They have been utterly dreadful this season and seem to be getting worse as the season progresses.
The return of Daly Cherry-Evans should help steady a rudderless ship but a minor miracle is needed for the maroon and whites to even come close at 1300 Smiles Stadium.
Tip: Cowboys 13+
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All the team list information for Round 8.
