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We’re so very nearly out of the woods. This week, the bye rounds come to an end! Welcome, one and all, to another edition of The Roar‘s AFL expert tips.
Sad to say my relentless insistence on tipping North Melbourne cost me again last week and I’ve slid a few picks behind the pack. But I’ll tip them again this week! Well, I would if they didn’t have the bye.
Congrats though to my colleagues Michael DiFabrizio and BJ Conkey who are now leading the comp equally, with The Crowd one tip behind them and myself two tips behind that.
This week we’ve got a very promising match-up on Saturday afternoon between the Sydney Swans and the Western Bulldogs at the SCG. The Dogs scored a massive upset in this same fixture last year, can they pull it off again?
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Both these sides would really love to get a win over a fellow top eight side at the moment, seeing as they’ve both lost their last contest against top eight sides by hefty margins – Sydney losing by 42 to GWS, and the Bulldogs losing by 57 to Geelong.
Whoever gets the win here will feel like they’ve gotten themselves back on track. Whoever loses will have us asking questions about their premiership credentials.
The Swans have a bit more maturity in the side and the home ground advantage so they are my tip – plus I don’t really think there’s a Bulldog defender capable of stopping Lance Franklin.
That said the Dogs are getting Easton Wood back and possibly a few others, and they could provide the boost that sees them record an upset.
The other very tricky one to pick this week is between Carlton and Collingwood at the MCG.
These clubs have almost performed an exact swap of what we expected from each this year – Carlton making a push for finals, and Collingwood seeming more like the team at the beginning of a long rebuild.
The Blues had a great streak of wins earlier in the year but have since had two big losses to St Kilda and GWS. I get the feeling the latter, rather than former, is their “real” form.
Collingwood on the other hand are having a number of injury issues and other struggles, but are still capable of giving an uninterested Fremantle side an unconvincing beat-down. Woo.
I’ll be tipping the Pies in this one, I just don’t believe we can rate Carlton on their good form from earlier in the season any more, the Pies have a smidgen of life in them after last week. Having lost this match-up earlier in the season they’ll have a bit of fire in the belly really wanting to get the win.
That said if the Blues get up here, surely Nathan Buckley starts getting nervous. Two losses to Carlton in a season when the Pies were supposed to be a finals contender and the Blues are last year’s wooden spooners? That’d be pushing the limits of Eddie McGuire’s patience, surely.
Richmond have actually been winning a lot lately but with the exception of their win over Sydney all their wins have come against the lowest of the low and even then they’ve been pretty unconvincing. Port Adelaide at home should bring them back to reality, or as close to reality as Richmond ever get.
St Kilda had a big upset win over Geelong last week, Gold Coast pushed Hawthorn but couldn’t maintain the rage. St Kilda are a fair bit ahead of the Suns at the moment and so long as they don’t allow last week’s win to go to their heads they’ll find victory again here. I’m backing them to keep it together.
Melbourne would love to get a scalp by downing Adelaide and they’ve had a suprisingly good record against them in recent years. That said I still have to tip the Crows, they’re in red hot form right now and surely don’t let this one slip.
West Coast vs Essendon is a forgone conclusion, an Eagles win is my Lock of the Week. The better question is how many goals with Josh J Kennedy kick? I’m betting at least six, but it could easily be ten or more.
Michael DiFabrizio
Gold Coast are suddenly favourites for a game. Even more surprising, it’s a game against a team that only last week knocked off the team on top of the ladder.
Now in all fairness, I understand where that’s coming from. They were competitive against a good side in Hawthorn at Launceston last week. Gary Ablett was racking up the touches. The run of massive losses has been halted, a sign that they’ve at the very least steadied the ship.
And hey, perhaps St Kilda have reason to get a little bit ahead of themselves after an impressive showing against Geelong last week.
But I don’t think the Saints fall into that trap. The likes of Seb Ross and Jack Steven, and the younger players behind them, are in good form. They’ve shown far, far more this year than the Suns.
Interstate or not, things would still have to go very wrong for the Saints to lose it.
BJ Conkey
The week off came at the right time for Port Adelaide after two straight losses. Back at the Adelaide Oval the team start as rightful favourites. The Tigers dominated possession the last time the two sides played, but still lost by 35-points.
The Bulldogs will still be licking their wounds after a heavy loss to the Cats a fortnight ago and the Swans are always tough to beat at the SCG.
A potential match-up between Josh P Kennedy and Marcus Bontempelli will generate plenty of interest and as always the Bulldogs will look for inspiration from Jake Stringer.
While Sydney’s goal scoring is often talked about, it’s their defence that continues to win matches and I expect ‘Fortress SCG’ to be too much of a task for the Dogs to crack.
Carlton continues to struggle with contested possessions and while the Blues defeated Collingwood in Round 7, their recent back-to-back losses were disappointing for a team that was on the verge of the eight.
Adam Treloar showed just how dangerous he is against Fremantle, while Travis Cloke had a solid hit-out after all the negative press.
Collingwood to win in a very tight contest. Could even be a draw this one.
| Round 15 | BJ Conkey | Michael | Josh | The Crowd |
| WCE v ESS | WCE | WCE | WCE | WCE |
| PA v RIC | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| GCS v STK | STK | STK | STK | STK |
| SYD v WB | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| CAR v COL | COL | CAR | COL | COL |
| MEL v ADL | ADL | ADL | ADL | ADL |
| Last round | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Total | 86 | 86 | 83 | 85 |